TACTICAL PREVIEW
Follow UsAfghanistan in Ahmedabad??? How???
Yes, exactly like that. With three question marks after each sentence.
Since the new Ahmedabad stadium was inaugurated in 2021, the venue has hardly host any low-profile games. In this World Cup alone, it has already played host to the clash of last year’s finalists, the biggest marquee clash of the tournament, the clash of Ashes rivals, and is to host the Grand Finale.
Among those, however, is slated a South Africa vs Afghanistan, now almost inconsequential, match to be dealt with.
After New Zealand’s commanding win over Sri Lanka in Bengaluru on Thursday, Afghanistan’s chances of semi-final qualification have taken a massive hit. They actually can pack their bags and take the next flight in, alongside Pakistan, who now have a massive mountain to climb in order to make it to the semi-final.
But they have only themselves to blame for it. They wouldn’t have to be in a position like this had they capitalized on their opportunities against Australia, whom they had on the mat before Glenn Maxwell played arguably the best ODI innings of all-time and landed Australia a memorable victory.
For South Africa, though, things are very straightforward. A loss to India in Kolkata notwithstanding, they have taken a larger leap of faith in this World Cup. They are not afraid to lose ground in search of bigger reward and that's played a big role in how the Proteas have dominated this World Cup so far.
Surely, there are many concerns - like their ability to chase - but once you’re in knockouts, it is all down to who handles the pressure better. Hence, South Africa would know Friday’s game provides an excellent opportunity to put the India loss behind and be ready for the Eden clash on the 16th.
Things to watch out for
Will South Africa test their chasing strength?
South Africa became the second team to qualify for the semi-finals, but after the thrashing that they suffered at the hands of India on Sunday, their tactics have come under the scanner. Thrice they chased but ended up losing two and barely managed to win one against Pakistan.
You never know the kind of playing conditions they’d be served in the semi-finals; hence doing away with the one-dimensional tag is going to be important for the Saffers.
Most of the South African batters have maintained a better average and strike rate while batting first in ODIs this year. The likes of Quinton de Kock and Rassie van der Dussen have not performed too well in run chases in ODIs this year, having an average of around 20.
Most South African bowlers have also maintained a better average and strike rate while bowling second in a match, helping South Africa register a win rate of 90.90% while batting first in ODIs this year. For them to be a serious contender, it will be important for them to replicate that while batting second. Could the Afghanistan game change the narrative?
Rashid’s overdependence on googly
That Rashid Khan is one of the greatest white-ball bowlers of all time is never in doubt, but he has struggled for consistency in picking up wickets in the ongoing World Cup. What has made things worse is the fact that he has gone wicketless in three innings and has picked up three or more wickets in only one match till now.
The wrist-spinner has relied upon his googly deliveries more in this World Cup. As a matter of fact, Rashid has picked up nearly 70% of his wickets on googly deliveries in this World Cup. However, his average and SR on these deliveries have taken a hit since the batters have been prepared for the googly and fended against them carefully.
After the 2019 CWC, Rashid Khan’s performance has impacted Afghanistan as they have won more than 80% of their games where the spinner has picked up three or more wickets in an innings.
Afghanistan’s win % drops down to less than 30% when the leggie goes wicketless. If Afghanistan really want to come back from the shock of the Australia clash and build on their excellent World Cup campaign, Rashid holds the ace.
Ground details
-> The Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad is one of the slow batting surfaces in the last three years. The average first innings score at this venue has been 240, whereas the average first innings winning score has been around 260 since 2021.
-> In CWC 2023, the average first innings score has been 253 while the average first innings winning score has been 286.
-> Pacers have taken 65 percent of the wickets at this venue since 2021. In CWC 2023, pacers have had the better bowling SR. Spinners have been more economical than pacers.
Tactical Insights
-> Keshav Maharaj tends to attack the stumps more often than not and he has done it for more than 50% of his deliveries in this competition. Only Adam Zampa has a better percentage of attacking the stumps in this World Cup. With the likes of Hashmatullah Shahidi and Rahmat Shah being leg-side dominant players, they need to be cautious in their shot-making approach.
-> Ibrahim Zadran has been dismissed twice by slow left-arm bowlers in this World Cup in only six balls he has faced against them. Notably, these occasions are the first time orthodox bowlers have dismissed him in his ODI career. Given this record, he must be cautious in his approach while taking on Maharaj.
Probable XIs
Afghanistan will bring back Fazalhaq Farooqi to bolster their squad. Who among Mujeeb Ur Rahman or Noor Ahmad goes out remains to be decided, but Farooqi’s return looks likely.
Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Ibrahim Zadran, Rahmat Shah, Hashmatullah Shahidi (c), Azmatullah Omarzai, Mohammad Nabi, Ikram Alikhil (wk), Rashid Khan, Mujeeb Ur Rahman/Fazalhaq Farooqi, Fazalhaq Farooqi/Noor Ahmad, Naveen-ul-Haq
For South Africa, the return of Gerald Coetzee is imminent. He will mostly be replacing Tabraiz Shamsi in the Playing XI.
Quinton de Kock (wk), Temba Bavuma (c), Rassie van der Dussen, Aiden Markram, Heinrich Klaasen, David Miller, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Gerald Cotezee, Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi
