TACTICAL PREVIEW
Follow UsWith a slender chance of squeezing into the top four of the World Cup points table, a confident Afghanistan take on a Netherlands side, who are here to prove a point. Afghanistan have won three out of their four games and go into the game as confident as they have ever been, but the Dutch too are not too far behind on that front, having toppled South Africa and Bangladesh at utmost ease.
Also, there is an added incentive of finishing at least in the top eight so as to assure themselves of a place in the Champions Trophy 2025. A win for Afghanistan would certainly make New Zealand nervous; however, if the Dutch pull off another victory, it will be a three-way tie among teams with six points apiece. A lot is certainly at stake in this game as Afghanistan and the Netherlands, who seem to be peaking at the right time, collide.
It is interesting to note that Scott Edwards' journey as one of the finest players of sweeps began against Afghanistan in Doha in 2022 in the three-match series in Doha. He received a lot of praise for the way he negotiated Rashid Khan, and that could once again be key as the Dutch look for their third win of the tournament.
Things to watch out for
Omarzai and Farooqi key?
Azmatullah Omarzai is someone every team would love to have. Somesh Agarwal, in this piece, delves into what a key player he has been for Afghanistan this World Cup, and he will once again be key here. He has been the middle-over enforcer with both bat and ball. All his five wickets in the tournament have come in the middle overs, and not to mention, with the bat, he has been a menace for the opposition taking on spinners and pacers alike.
Along with Omarzai, it is also worth mentioning how crucial Fazalhaq Farooqi is. He had been off-color in the beginning but bounced back with four wickets in the previous match against Sri Lanka. While no Afghanistan bowler has more wickets (38) than Farooqi since his ODI debut, it's vital to note that his side has ended up winning nearly 73% of the matches whenever he has picked up two or more wickets. The Netherlands will be wary of that and not give the pacer early wickets.
How good have Netherlands been in the powerplay
The Netherlands have largely used Aryan Dutt in the powerplay, where he has, more often than not, ensured that his side end the phase on top. His impressive performances in the first 10 overs have enabled the Netherlands to be the most successful team in the phase (10 wickets) after South Africa (16) to go with a dot ball % of 69. While Dutt has picked up three in overs 1-10, he has also found support at the other end, with the likes of Logan van Beek (3), Colin Ackermann (2), Paul van Meekeren (1), and Roelof van der Merwe also chipping in with vital scalps. Moreover, Dutt has also bowled six maidens - the most this World Cup.
Afghanistan have been stubborn in the first 10 overs, scoring runs at an average of 63 and losing a wicket every 72 deliveries - which are the best among all teams this World Cup. Can the Netherlands break them?
Ground details
Pacers have done a good job at the Ekana Stadium in Lucknow, this World Cup accounting for nearly 63% of the wickets. The one area where the spinners have excelled is keeping the runs down, conceding at 4.6 an over, compared to the fast bowlers, who have gone for 5.3 an over.
However, the quicks have picked up wickets at regular intervals, striking once every 26.2 runs, 29.5 deliveries apart, compared to the spinners, for whom the corresponding numbers are 32 and 42, respectively.
The average first innings score here this World Cup has been 253, and the captains winning the toss have chosen to bowl first twice in four matches. Don't be surprised if that is the case once again on Friday (November 3).
Tactical insights
Bas de Leede bounced back well against Bangladesh after conceding 115 against Australia. He has been at his clinical best against right-handers, picking up 10 wickets at 20 against them this World Cup. This could certainly be used to Netherlands' advantage, given that Afghanistan has just two lefties in the XI. However, Afghanistan, too, can exploit de Leed's weakness against the left-arm pacers, given that he has been dismissed thrice against them at an average of 10.3 - the worst for him against all bowling types. They could consider unleashing Farooqi as soon as he comes into bat.
Mujeeb-ur-Rahman has gone wicketless in his last two games, but with a little bit of assistance for spinners in Lucknow, he could very well bounce back against the Netherlands. He will be licking his lips, given that the Netherlands are stacked with right-handers in their line-up. Mujeeb has picked up 15 of his 20 wickets against the right-handers (Ave 32.5, SR 36.7).
Team news & combination
Netherlands
The Netherlands preferred Shariz Ahmad ahead of Roelof van der Merwe in the previous game against Bangladesh. However, they would be better suited if they include van der Merwe in the XI as he adds further depth to their batting, along with bowling a few tight overs. Saqib Zulfiqar, who has played just one game in the tournament so far, could also be a handy option.
The Netherlands have the advantage of having played in Lucknow earlier this tournament - against Sri Lanka - where they put up over 260. Colin Ackermann, in the pre-match press conference, indicated that they will use the knowledge to their advantage.
Likely XI: Vikramjit Singh, Max O'Dowd, Wesley Barresi, Colin Ackermann, Scott Edwards (c & wk), Bas de Leede, Sybrand Engelbrecht, Logan van Beek, Roelof van der Merwe/Saqib Zulfiqar, Aryan Dutt, Paul van Meekeren
Afghanistan
The only decision Afghanistan will look to make is whether they want to include Noor Ahmad in the XI. Barring that, there should be no other changes.
Likely XI: Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), Ibrahim Zadran, Rahmat Shah, Hashmatullah Shahidi (c), Azmatullah Omarzai, Ikram Alikhil, Mohammad Nabi, Rashid Khan, Mujeeb Ur Rahman, Naveen-ul-Haq/Noor Ahmad, Fazalhaq Farooqi
