All eyes on returning Smith as Australia take on Bangladesh in Pune

From Sydney to Canberra, Australian fans are still recovering from the high of their win against Afghanistan. Dead to rights, Australia had all their hopes pinned on the returning all-rounder Glenn Maxwell. 

Maxwell did not disappoint, not one bit, putting on a show for a lifetime. Afghanistan tried it all but in vain. Maxwell smoked 201* off 128 deliveries despite struggling with bad cramps in his back, hamstring, and leg. It was a get-me-out-of-jail card that Australia utilized, sealing their place in the semi-finals of the ongoing ODI World Cup. 

Also Read: 2% chance, 98% faith, Maxwell orchestrates the greatest La Remontada

This game might look inconsequential for Australia, but there are some areas that they need to iron out, most notably the form of Steve Smith, who hasn’t looked himself throughout the tournament. 

On the other hand, this clash is important for Bangladesh for their place in the 2025 Champions Trophy. They are placed eight on the points table, but a big loss at the hands of Australia could ultimately put them out of the race for the ICC tournament. Bangladesh will have to do it all without their mercurial skipper, Shakib Al Hasan, who was earlier ruled out of the fixture. 

All hopes now are pinned on the shoulders of Najmul Hossain Shanto to orchestrate a win over five-time World Champions Australia. 

Things to watch out for

Steve Smith returns, can his form return?

Smith averages just 28.5 in 2023; that’s the second-lowest average for him in a calendar year, affecting Australia’s middle-order fortunes. Australia have been heavily dependent on the openers to wrestle out the opposition. If not the openers, it has been Maxwell's show in the lower order to bail them out of trouble. 

The Australian No.4 has a problem, just like Joe Root. In this year’s World Cup, Smith was twice dismissed for a single-digit score. Even when he has passed that stage, the right-hander has only converted the start into a 50+ score, which came against the Netherlands. 

He’s had his trouble against spin in this year’s World Cup, which also happens to be Bangladesh’s best suit. Having recovered from Vertigo, it is a real chance for Smith to return to form just before the second semi-final against South Africa in Kolkata, another venue notoriously known for spin. 

Starc and Cummins need to step up

Australia’s bowling unit, particularly the pace unit, has had a forgettable tournament. Their bowling strike rate is the second worst for any pace units in the competition, at 35.7. Not to forget their economy of 6.1, ranked on the higher side of things. 

Neither has Mitchell Starc lit the tournament in the powerplay, nor has Pat Cummins, who remains wicketless in the first ten-over stage of a clash. In fact, Cummins’ streak of not picking up a wicket in the powerplay is now stretched to 11 games. 

And then, there is Starc, who averages 43.9, with a strike rate of 40.2. That’s the worst he’s ever in a World Cup edition. Bangladesh have struggled against pace, with an average of just 22.2. Not just that, they have been terrible against left-arm pacers, averaging just 18.3. 

That’s where Starc could step up, and there couldn’t have been a better chance for him. 

Ground Details

The Maharashtra Cricket Stadium (MCA) has had a weird pattern thus far in the World Cup. After two relatively low-scoring encounters, the first-innings scores in the last two games at the venue have been 339 and 357, which essentially shows how it has become better to bat over time. On both occasions, teams batting first have won, showing a swing in the pattern. 

33 out of the 53 wickets have been taken by pacers (62.3%), with only 20 wickets for the spinners. Spinners, though, have had a very good economy rate (5.4), which could be good news for Bangladesh. 

What does Bangladesh need for 2025 Champions Trophy Qualification?

Bangladesh need a win to get to six points. To qualify on points, they would want Sri Lanka to lose their last game and the Netherlands to lose both. England's consecutive win wouldn't matter in this case, as Bangladesh and England will go through with six points.  

However, Bangladesh should ensure they do not lose by a massive margin against Australia.

Tactical Insights

- Smith’s struggle against spin has been evident in this tournament, with the second-lowest average for a batter (min 50 runs) at 15.4. He’s been dismissed twice by off-spinners in this World Cup, so there could be a ploy to bowl Mehidy Hasan Miraz early in the innings. 

- While Bangladesh haven’t lost a lot of wickets against spin, they have the lowest run rate against spin, which would mean that Adam Zampa could go about his things without being challenged too much in the clash. 

Probable XIs

Australia might ponder making two changes, bringing back Steve Smith into the XI. Glenn Maxwell is highly unlikely to take part in this encounter after his struggle in the clash against Afghanistan

Australia’s predicted XI: David Warner, Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Steve Smith, Marnus Labuschagne, Josh Inglis, Cameron Green/Marcus Stoinis, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Adam Zampa, Josh Hazlewood

Bangladesh are without Shakib Al Hasan after an injury ruled him out of the competition, so that’s the only place they will make a change. If Mustafizur is fit, he will replace Tanzim Hasan Sakib

Bangladesh’s predicted XI: Tanzid Hasan, Litton Das, Najmul Hossain Shanto (c), Mushfiqur Rahim (wk), Mahmudullah, Anamul Haque, Towhid Hridoy, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Mustafizur Rahman, Taskin Ahmed, Shoriful Islam