Qualification Scenarios: Can Australia Still Qualify If They Lose To Afghanistan?

The clash between Australia and South Africa in ICC Champions Trophy 2025 has been washed out, meaning the Aussies have now seen three of their last five Champions Trophy games ending in a no result. There have been four washouts overall in the Champions Trophy since 2013, and remarkably, every single one of those games have now involved Australia. Yep, they’ve had some rotten luck in this competition when it comes to the weather.

Victory today against South Africa would have put Australia in pole position to make it to the semis but now they’re in a spot where they might need to win their last game against Afghanistan (in Lahore on February 28) in order to progress. 

Afghanistan are sort of a bogey team for Australia, considering the Afghans knocked the Kangaroos out of the 2024 T20 World Cup, and almost spoiled the Aussies’ party in the 2023 ODI World Cup. 

How can Australia make it to the semi-finals of the Champions Trophy?

The good news is that Australia still very much have their fate in their own hands. Currently on three points, the Aussies will *seal qualification* if they win the clash against Afghanistan on February 28 (Friday).

South Africa are the only other team that can get to a maximum of 5 points, so victory against Afghanistan will confirm Australia’s progression to the semis. 

Can Australia qualify for the semis even if they lose to Afghanistan?

Interestingly enough, yes. But for that, a couple of results will have to go Australia’s way.

Here’s what needs to happen for Australia to qualify even after losing to Afghanistan:

> England beat Afghanistan in Lahore

> South Africa beat England in Karachi

If these two aforementioned things happen, then the standings will look something like:

South Africa - 5 points

Australia - 3 points

Afghanistan - 2 points

England - 2 points 

Thus Australia will end up progressing even if they lose to Afghanistan. 

What will happen if Australia vs Afghanistan is washed out?

If Australia vs Afghanistan is washed out, then Australia will progress to the semis. Because in that case, Afghanistan will be able to get to a maximum of 3 points only if they beat England.

Assuming England beat Afghanistan tomorrow, then the South Africa vs England match will become a virtual quarter-final, wherein only one of the two will be able to progress. 

Is there rain prediction for Australia vs Afghanistan?

Unfortunately, yes. Though the game will be played in Lahore, there’s close to a 70% chance of precipitation on Friday (according to Google). But Australia won’t mind it, given a washout will seal semi-final qualification for them.