Follow UsEverything almost fell into place for the fifth and final Test at The Oval to be the most anticipated decider of an Ashes series in decades, but unfortunately, the English weather ended up having the last laugh. Everyone’s mood has hence been dampened now — literally.
But that being said, though Australia have retained the urn on the back of the draw at Old Trafford, there is still a lot to play for.
For one, the series is still alive. England can no longer regain the urn, yes, but victory at The Oval will make it 2-2 and help preserve a 22-year-old record, that of not having lost a series at home to the Aussies. At the same venue four years ago, England, under the leadership of Joe Root, denied Australia an outright series win, and the Three Lions have the opportunity to do the same again.
And make no mistake, that’ll be on top of their priority list because the last thing Ben Stokes’ men will want is to be known as the first side in two decades to lose a home Ashes series to the enemy.
As far as Australia are concerned, they’ll also be desperate to make it 3-1 (or, worst case, draw and end the series 2-1) to ensure a series win. The same set of players blew a golden opportunity four years ago; they’ll be desperate to ensure this series does not become another ‘what if’ case. Mind you, considering this is an ageing side, there’s a good chance that this Oval Test might prove to be the last-ever Ashes Test in England for many of the Australian players.
And finally, there are World Test Championship (WTC) points to play for. In the eyes of both sides, The Ashes is bigger than everything else, yes, but WTC standings will also be on the back of both teams’ minds. England, in particular, need to improve their points percentage of 29.17%, otherwise, they’ll find it increasingly difficult to make it to the final.
Could the occasion have been bigger and better? Absolutely. But, all things considered, this fifth Test is still a clash of massive relevance.
Things to watch out for
Can Zak Crawley finish the series on a high?
The last time Zak Crawley posted a 150+ score in Test cricket, he went 21 innings without another ton, averaging just above 16.00 in the said period.
That was a long time ago, but for Crawley, things are a bit different now. As unbelievable as it may sound, he’s arguably been the most consistent batter across both sides this series — five 30+ scores in seven innings — and is now the highest run-getter in this Ashes on the back of the stunning 189 at Old Trafford. He is oozing confidence and finally *seems* to have cracked the Test code. Thus in the form Crawley is in, all eyes will be on the opener to see if he can extend this little patch — by far the best of his career — and end the series on a high. If he can, that will be some statement. It will also go a long way in helping England level the series.
Australia face tough selection calls, again
At Old Trafford, Australia did something they’d not done in over a decade and took to the field without picking a specialist spinner, opting to select both Mitch Marsh and Cameron Green. Fair to say, though Australia walked away with a draw thanks to the rain, the move spectacularly backfired as not only did England ransack their 1D bowling attack — scoring 592 runs @ 5.53 RPO — the ‘bat deep’ strategy did not work, at least in the first innings, with Green scoring just 16.
It is unlikely Australia will go in with an all-pace attack at The Oval, so the Kangaroos now face the tough call of leaving out Green, who arguably has been the most disappointing visiting player in the series. It is a move that’s completely justified form-wise — Marsh has been head and shoulders above Green — but considering how much Australia have invested in Green and how highly they rate him, it’ll be a call that will sting, both for the management and the player.
The Aussies will also have to think about the composition of their pace attack. Cummins has declared both himself and Starc fit, but on the back of the hammering at Old Trafford, are they really 100% fresh — both mentally and physically — to be able to make a positive impact?
And though Hazlewood did take a (very underwhelming) five-fer in the fourth Test, isn’t there merit in picking someone like a Michael Neser, who has been in scintillating form with bat and ball in the County Championships and will provide additional batting cover down the order in the absence of Green? (assuming Green will be left out).
There are no easy answers.
Tactical Nous
Chris Woakes could be the antidote to Mitch Marsh
4 innings into this Ashes, Mitch Marsh has obliterated the England bowlers, smashing 228 runs at an average of 76.00 and SR of 67.7. Well, he’s obliterated all but one bowler: Chris Woakes.
Remarkably, in the form Marsh is in, Woakes has managed to induce a false-short percentage of 19.4%, the highest among all English bowlers (to the Western Australian). A lot of this has to do with the length Woakes bowls. Incidentally, Woakes’ regulation length coincides with Marsh’s most uncomfortable length, which is the 6m-8m region.
In his overall Test career, Marsh averages just 18 against balls pitched in this length, the lowest figure for him against any length. This is hence the perfect storm for England, who would be hoping that Woakes somehow tames Marsh at The Oval.
> Likewise, Ben Duckett seems to have a problem negating Starc. His control percentage against Starc (75.9%) is the lowest for him against any bowler this series. Starc has now managed to get him cheaply on each of the last two occasions.
> The caught-behind off Root on Day 4 made it three dismissals in a row for Labuschagne against off-spin. As a result he now averages 46.8 vs pace as compared to 24.0 vs spin. Expect England to keep dangling the carrot to the Queenslander at The Oval.
Ground Details and Pitch Conditions
Historically, The Oval is known to be one of the truest and flattest wickets in England. However, if pictures are to be believed, we could get a slightly green-ish surface for the fifth Test, maybe similar to the one we saw in the WTC Final. Australia, mind you, have already played once at The Oval this year and have won. That was a very good cricket wicket which offered something for everyone but was largely batter-friendly. We could be in for a cracker of a contest if we get a wicket similar to the one we witnessed in the WTC Final.
But beware of the weather. The forecast is not great so there’s a good chance we might get yet another shortened contest.
Predicted XIs
James Anderson’s participation remained the only question from an English perspective, but the Three Lions have opted to name an unchanged XI. That means Mark Wood is playing three Tests in a row, and Broad, SIX (!!) in a row.
England XI: Ben Duckett, Zak Crawley, Moeen Ali, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (c), Jonny Bairstow (wk), Chris Woakes, Mark Wood, Stuart Broad, James Anderson
From an Australian standpoint, expect Todd Murphy to come in place of Cameron Green. This move will strengthen their bowling but will, at the same time, weaken their batting a tad.
Australia likely XI: David Warner, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Steven Smith, Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Alex Carey (wk), Pat Cummins (c), Mitchell Starc, Todd Murphy, Josh Hazlewood