TACTICAL PREVIEW
Follow UsYou know things are not right when the buzz around a game surrounds things apart from cricket. The build-up of Match 7 of the 2023 World Cup has been headlined by the outfield conditions at the HPCA Stadium in Dharamsala.
There were several instances of players losing their footing or barging their knees into the sandy surface of the venue during Bangladesh’s six-wicket win over Afghanistan in Match 3 on Saturday (October 7). The ICC gave the outfield an ‘average’ rating which means the England-Bangladesh fixture will continue as scheduled.
Asked about the conditions on the eve of the game, the England skipper Jos Buttler stated that his players will be careful about diving in the outfield.
“Certainly if you feel like you're having to hold yourself back, it's not a place you want to be as a team or player in a World Cup match,” said the skipper.
Buttler’s reservations are valid. However, while England will be reluctant in the field, they will also be keen to put up their top game against Bangladesh. The defending champions were crushed in the tournament opener. For a long time now, they have responded to the adversary by going harder at the opposition. They might hold back in the field, but expect them to operate with bat and ball at full tilt.
Bangladesh, on the other hand, hit their straps right away, beating a competent Afghanistan side in a convincing manner. England would be aware not to take them lightly. Bangladesh have their ways of hitting back and their main weapon is where the only weakness of England’s batting lies - spin bowling.
Things to watch out for
Can Bangladesh subvert England with spin?
Dharamsala is known to aid pacers. However, Bangladesh bombarded Afghanistan with efficient spin, picking 6/55 in 17 overs between Shakib Al Hasan and Mehidy Hasan Miraz.
England have ticked plenty of boxes in the batting department, be it batting depth, RHB-LHB combination, run rate and many more. Spin has been their only Achilles heel. Since 2022, they are in the lower half regarding average versus spin.
The defeat against New Zealand was a prime example. England cashed in against the inconsistent lengths of Rachin Ravindra but managed only 2/37 against Mitchell Santner. In addition, Glenn Phillips dented them with two wickets in three overs.
The slower the pitch, the slower the bowling, England suffer. Bangladesh will aim to repeat their spin bowling performance against Afghanistan. If England surpass that scare, it could be an easy win for them, even considering the improvement in Bangladesh’s pace bowling numbers.
Adil Rashid need to fix his record in India
Adil Rashid will go down as the most influential spinner in the annals of England’s white-ball cricket. However, his legacy in India leaves a lot to be desired. In five ODIs in India, spanning across six years, Rashid averages 103 for his three scalps. An economy of 7.5 adds to the worries. In none of these five ODIs, he has economy of under six.
Good returns from Rashid is a non-negotiable for England in the bid to defend their title. The Three Lions have a readymade replacement for every player except Rashid.
Bangladesh have many skilled batters of spin bowling. Each of Nazmul Shanto, Shakib Al Hasan, Liton Das, Mehidy Hasan and Mushfiqur Rahim average above 40 against spin in ODIs since 2022. Towhid Hridoy averages 51.6. Despite playing on heavily spin-friendly tracks back home, these numbers only speak for Bangladesh’s brilliance in tackling spin.
However, no Bangladeshi batter has a strike rate in excess of 100 against spin. This will provide Rashid the breathing space to lay some impact in a 50-over game in India. Moreover, a good day out for the leg-spinner can ease things going forward for England.
Ground Details and Conditions
The most scenic venue in India has hosted only five ODIs. In three of them, teams batting first have been bundled out for less than 200 twice, 226 once, and one score of 300+.
One of the primary reasons behind that is the early movement that the seamers get during the early part of the day. Given it is a day game, the only time there will be any help for the pacers will be during the first ten overs of the day. Spinners come into effect later on, snapping 2.6 wickets per innings at an economy of 4.5. Nearly 74% of spinners wickets have come in the first innings. That is a big reason why four out of the five ODIs here have been won by team batting second.
Expect the team winning the toss to opt to bowl first.
Tactical Insights
> Bangladesh will look to target Jonny Bairstow with spin, which means the Shakib Al Hasan-led side can actually start with a spinner. Since 2022 in ODIs, Bairstow has averaged only 12.3 against spin for three dismissals at a strike rate of 64.9.
> Taskin Ahmed will be reserved to target Jos Buttler during the middle-overs. The right-arm seamer has dismissed Buttler thrice in ODIs, conceding only 51 runs. Also, since 2022, Taskin averages 19.9 in the middle-phase (overs 11 to 40) as compared to 45.7 in the first 10 overs.
> England can subvert Towhid Hridoy, Bangladesh’s latest recruit in the middle-order, with high pace. In 15 ODI innings, Hridoy averages 51.6 versus spin but only 28.9 against pace. On deliveries above 135 kph, his average drops to 13.3 (three dismissals).
Probable XIs
England
With two spin-bowling options in Rashid and Liam Livingstone and Bangladesh’s prowess in facing spin, England can consider bolstering their pace attack. Reece Topley is set to make his World Cup debut and can replace Moeen Ali, with Sam Curran moving to number seven in the batting order.
However, it will reduce a left-handed batting option for England. Ben Stokes is expected to miss this game too, due to his hip injury.
Jonny Bairstow, Dawid Malan, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Jos Buttler (c/wk), Liam Livingstone, Sam Curran, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood, Adil Rashid, Reece Topley
Bangladesh
There is no reason for Bangladesh to change the winning side. But, to turn up the heat with favorable match-ups, there is a case to sneak Mahedi Hasan (off-spin) or Nasum Ahmed (left-arm orthodox) in the XI. Mahmudullah can be in the firing line as his batting style is less likely to flourish at number eight.
Tanzid Hasan, Litton Das, Najmul Hossain Shanto, Shakib Al Hasan ( c ), Towhid Hridoy, Mushfiqur Rahim (wk), Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Nasum Ahmed/Mahedi Hasan, Taskin Ahmed, Shoriful Islam, Mustafizur Rahman
