Following their washout against Australia in Lahore, Afghanistan no longer have their fate in their own hands as far as qualifying for the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 semi-final is concerned. They are now dependent on the outcome from the South Africa vs England game, which will be played in Karachi on March 1 (Saturday).
Afghanistan are third in Group B with three points from their three matches. However, that is not enough for them to make it to the semis. As a result, they will need a huge favour from England on Saturday to progress.
If England do the job, then Afghanistan will go above South Africa in terms of net run-rate and qualify for their first-ever semi-final of an ICC ODI event.
If England field first
If SA score 200, ENG must reach 201 inside 16.2 overs
If SA score 250, ENG must reach 251 inside 19 overs
If SA score 300, ENG must reach 301 inside 21 overs
If SA score 350, ENG must reach 351 inside 23 overs
If England bat first
If target is 251, SA must be all out by 47
If target is 301, SA must be all out by 93
If target is 351, SA must be all out by 143
If England manage to achieve the above, South Africa's net run-rate which currently stands at +2.140 will come below Afghanistan, which currently stands at -0.990.
However, if the match is washed out, Afghanistan will crash out, with South Africa progressing as group winners along with Australia.