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Follow UsYou’ll have to go all the way back to the Champions Trophy Final in 2017 to find the last instance of Pakistan beating India in an ODI, so let’s make something clear: India head into Saturday’s clash in Ahmedabad as favorites.
But write Pakistan off at your own peril. They might be 0-4 in their last 4 completed ODIs against India but it was only a month ago that they gave the Men in Blue a mighty scare in Pallekele. Perhaps, if not for rain, they might have very well gone on to win that particular encounter.
We’ll never know that but what we do know is that there are a few key areas that’ll decide the fate of Saturday’s clash. Let’s dive right into them.
The new-ball battle: Shaheen & Co. vs India's top-order
‘Shaheen Afridi vs India’s top order’ has been a thing ever since the left-arm pacer sensationally ran through India’s batting at the T20WC in Dubai two years ago, and it’s a subplot that’s since been hyped and milked like no other.
Without falling into the same ‘hype’ trap, we’re just gonna put this out there: if Pakistan are to score their first-ever 50-over World Cup win over India on Saturday, they’ll need to strike at least twice (preferably thrice or more) in the powerplay.
Let’s look at why they’ll need to do so to stand a chance.
This year, India have played 23 ODIs. They’ve lost one or fewer wickets in the powerplay in 18 of the matches and have gone one to win 15 of them (83%).
Only one of these losses came against a team not named Australia, and on that occasion, they had a makeshift middle-order (Samson-Axar-Pandya-SKY).
It’s simple: India’s batting line-up is so strong, stable, and secure that you’re doomed if you don’t dent them up-front. Like Australia found out in Chennai, you could be in trouble even if you pick early wickets, but you’re definitely a goner if you don’t strike up-front. There’s just wayyyy too much quality in that batting line-up.
But remove the top-order early and you might stand a chance.
This calendar year, India have lost 2+ wickets in the powerplay six times. They’ve lost two of those six games, come close to losing two more (vs Australia in Chennai and Wankhede) and there was a no result in Pallekele against this very Pakistan side where they got bowled out for 266.
Good thing Pakistan have Shaheen, right? Well, yes, but the problem is that Shaheen has been sub-par with the new ball this year. That burst in Pallekele last month was terrific, yes, but this year he’s averaging 42 in overs 1-10 and has gone wicketless in the powerplay 10/14 times. That’s 71% of the time.
So far this World Cup, the left-armer has bowled eight wicketless powerplay overs while conceding 46 runs.
Considering Shaheen is the tone-setter, Pakistan will need their talisman to step up big time.
But the first 10 overs are a big deal not just for Pakistan but for India too. If they can get through this phase unscathed, they’re set. Not only because they have a ludicrously strong middle-order, but also due to the fact that Pakistan have been very substandard in the middle phase.
This year, Pakistan are averaging 38.00 in overs 11-40, which is the fourth-worst among teams participating in this World Cup. In the 11-30 phase (new-ish ball outside the powerplay), this average increases to 46.00.
The main reason behind this is the lack of penetration provided by the spinners Shadab Khan and Mohammad Nawaz, who average 36.5 and 46.3, respectively, in the 11-40 phase in ODIs this year.
In the Super Fours clash in the Asia Cup last month in Colombo, India lost no wickets in the powerplay (only 2 in the first 20 overs) and went on to post 356/2.
So if you’re India, you wanna preserve wickets up-front at all costs. If you’re Pakistan, you wanna throw everything you have at the Indians inside the first 8 or so overs. The game could very well be won or lost in this period.
Kuldeep Yadav’s spell
The last time Kuldeep Yadav played against Pakistan, he ripped through their middle order to help India score a resounding 228-run victory. That was last month.
Before that, four years ago in Manchester, he turned the World Cup encounter in India’s favour by dismissing Fakhar Zaman and Babar Azam, the two set batters, in the space of three overs.
The Pakistan batters evidently struggle against Kuldeep and the numbers reflect that: the wrist-spinner’s average of 13.50 against the Men in Green is the best for him against any side in this format.
That Pakistan struggle against Kuldeep might have to do with the fact that they’re simply not used to facing left-arm wrist spinners. At all.
Since 2020, Pakistan have faced just 25 overs of left-arm wrist spin, which is the third-lowest among the teams participating in this World Cup.
Unlike the other teams, they don’t get to face Kuldeep in the IPL and bilaterals, either. So for Kuldeep, the ‘mystery factor’ exists while coming up against Pakistan.
The wrist-spinner is hence an ace up India’s sleeve, and his spell in the middle overs will be another factor that will decide which way this match swings.
Pakistan’s middle-order drove the side to victory in each of the first two matches, but come Saturday, it will be up against a challenge of a whole different magnitude. It’ll be curtains for the Men in Green if the batters falter against Kuldeep; they’ll have to find a way to neutralize the wrist-spinner’s threat if they are to score an upset in Ahmedabad.
KL Rahul’s stay at the crease
KL Rahul is averaging 100.50 with the bat since slotting into the side against Pakistan last month but forget that. More than Rahul’s runs, it’s the solidity he’s brought that’s been absolute gold for India.
Since coming back into the side last month, Rahul has played 7 innings and has faced at least 30 balls in every innings. Thrice, he walked in with the side having lost quick wickets (vs Sri Lanka & Bangladesh in Colombo and vs Australia in Chennai) and on all three occasions, he managed to stop the slide by occupying the crease, absorbing pressure and sucking the momentum out of the opposition bowlers.
His presence in the middle order has turned the batting from ‘very strong’ to ‘invincible’.
So not only will Pakistan have to find a way to get quick wickets in the powerplay, they will also have to see the back of Rahul early in order to truly run through this Indian batting line-up.
Babar Azam’s contribution
6 innings, an average of 28.00, no fifties and a strike rate of 72.41 — Babar Azam’s record against India in ODIs makes for grim reading.
Yet, the skipper could hold the key for Pakistan in Saturday’s clash, despite his poor H2H record and horror form heading into the contest.
You’re probably now wondering how.
Let’s just say this: there is no guarantee that Pakistan will win if Babar gets a good score, but there’ll be less than a 20% chance of them winning if India manage to get him out early.
Pakistan beat both Netherlands and Sri Lanka without Babar’s contribution, but there’s way too much quality in this Indian bowling unit for the Men in Green to be able to pull off another Houdini act minus their skipper.
Mohammad Rizwan has been doing the heavy lifting for the past few games and is in the form of his life, but it would be unreasonable to expect the wicket-keeper batter to provide yet another match-winning contribution. Despite Abdullah Shafique and Saud Shakeel’s confident start to this campaign, the two are highly inexperienced while Imam-ul-Haq, usually a very reliable run-accumulator, is a walking wicket on current form (scores of 12, 15, 16, 1, and 9 in the last 5 innings, warm-ups included).
A lot, thus, hinges on Babar.
The only time Pakistan beat India in a World Cup (any format), it was Babar who led from the front with the bat. For the Men in Green to have any chance of breaking the ODI World Cup duck against the Men in Blue on Saturday, the skipper might just have to come up with one of the knocks of his career to date.
