Follow UsAfter an extended break that lasted eight days, it’s time for the battle to restart as India and England lock horns in the fourth Test of the five-match series at Old Trafford, with the hosts leading 2-1.
Now, England might be 2-1 up, but India will take heart from the fact that they’ve controlled all three Tests and have lost two matches due to fine margins. They will believe that even a slightly improved performance will be enough for them to make it 2-2, especially with Jasprit Bumrah confirmed to be playing the fourth game.
We’ve had two flat tracks and a classic English wicket (at Lord’s) so far, so what’s in store at Old Trafford?
Another Lord’s-like Test progression likely
Lord’s was a fantastic Test match, in the sense that we had three very balanced days (runs, seam and spin all on offer) and then two days where ball dominated bat. Expect a very similar deck at Old Trafford.
Since 2019, the average scores for each innings at the venue have been as follows: 338 (1st), 338 (2nd), 204 (3rd) and 201 (4th). Hence, this will be another match that will likely be decided by how well a team bats in their first innings.
There will be a lot of runs on offer initially as the average scores for the 1st and 2nd innings are right up there as one of the highest in the country among all venues.
Win the toss and….?
Toss has been pretty random in this series so far, but we’ve seen the team batting first win both at Edgbaston and Lord’s. So what’s the way to go here at Old Trafford?
Since 2019, both teams batting first and second have won 3 games each, with a draw (Ashes 2023). But it’s worth noting that in the drawn game, England bowled first and were well on their way to victory before being denied by rain.
England, though, might bowl first if they win the toss for two reasons: one, it’s expected to be overcast on day one and two, they’ve had good success bowling first at this venue.
Since 2020, whenever England have bowled first at Old Trafford, they’ve bowled their opponents out for 236, 317, 151 & 326. They’re unbeaten in these games.
Plus, they chased 205 against Sri Lanka last year and 277 against Pakistan in 2020.
Day 2 is usually the best day to bat
Another reason to potentially bowl first here is that day 2 is usually the best day to bat. That being said, batting gets pretty tough on the fifth day, so again, batting second is only an advantage if you bat exceptionally in your first attempt.
Will Old Trafford aid India’s spinners?
We saw the Lord’s surface aid the Indian spinners, with Washington Sundar taking a 4-fer in the third innings that almost won India the game. So, what can we expect from Old Trafford?
Unfortunately, Manchester of late has not been kind to the spinners, the tweakers averaging 45 at the venue since 2019.
Across the last three Tests played here (since 2022), spinners have averaged 51.3, which is the second-worst for the slower bowlers at any venue in the country during this time period. Spinners’ eye-watering SR of 94.8 is also the worst at any venue in England recently.
It's not like spinners have gotten purchase as the game has progressed, either. Since 2022, spinners have averaged 102.5 in the 3rd innings, and 49 in the 4th innings.
So a combination of this, and the overcast weather, all but rules out Kuldeep Yadav's return to playing XI.
How have the English batters fared at this venue?
All English batters except Pope and Duckett have exceptional records at Old Trafford. Root averages 65 here, but what might concern India is the fact that Ben Stokes averages over 50 and has multiple tons at the venue.
And what about their bowlers?
Chris Woakes, who has had a horrid series so far, has an exceptional record at the venue. But India might be curious that Jofra Archer averages over 40 with the ball here.
Brydon Carse has not played a Test or a first-class match at this venue. Liam Dawson, though, surprisingly averages 17.9 in FC cricket here at Old Trafford.
India are winless at Old Trafford
In nine attempts, India are yet to win a single Test at Old Trafford. But it’s worth pointing out that it’s pretty pointless to read into this particular number, since India have played no Tests at this venue since 2014.
They broke the duck at Edgbaston a couple of weeks back. They’ll be hoping to repeat that at Old Trafford over the next five days.