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IPL 2023 qualification scenarios: CSK can still not make the playoffs

article_imageTRENDS ANALYSIS
Last updated on 15 May 2023 | 10:21 AM
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IPL 2023 qualification scenarios: CSK can still not make the playoffs

RCB are firm favourites to make it to the top four following victory against RR; DC remain the only team to be eliminated

Mathematically for the longest time, all ten teams were in contention to make it to the playoffs despite Delhi Capitals’ dismal start to the season. But following their loss against Chennai Super Kings, and then Punjab Kings, Delhi became the first team to be eliminated from the race to playoffs this year. 

But CSK’s loss against Kolkata Knight Riders has opened up a new can of worms, with the four-time IPL champions finding themselves in a spot of bother, and a reality where they could be out of the competition. So, how can your favourite team make the cut?

Gujarat Titans

Played 12 | Won 8 | Lost 4 | Points 16 | +0.761

Remaining fixtures: Hyderabad (H), Bangalore (A)

Criclytics qualification probability: 99%

Gujarat could have almost made it to the playoffs but a huge loss against Mumbai Indians threw open the qualification door for the top two, which CSK failed to seize. At this point, all that Gujarat have to do is win their remaining two games, one out of which is against the team who are at the bottom of the points table, Hyderabad. If they do that, they will seal themselves a place in the top two. 

With their net run-rate still a healthy +0.761, it would require quite a loss for them to fall off the table. But a resurgent Mumbai still could make a drive to the top two, and push away CSK for good. But amidst all the madness, Gujarat are 99% the favourites to make it. However, they still need to win one out of the two fixtures, which would also make them firm favourites for a top-two finish. 

Chennai Super Kings

Played 13 | Won 7 | Lost 5 | NR 1 | Points 15 | +0.381

Remaining fixtures: Delhi (A)

Criclytics qualification probability: 94%

CSK had their top two fate in their own hands, and quite embarrassingly, they blew it up against KKR at Chepauk. It was quite a demolition act, considering they know the conditions well, and even won the toss. But thankfully, the game went down the length, which didn’t quite take a toll on their net run-rate. 

What it has done though is make their qualification chance quite tricky. If you were breathing fresh after Gujarat’s loss, the loss against KKR has failed to seal CSK a place in the top two. And if they do manage to blow up another fixture, against Delhi, they could be out of the qualification race. However, there are a few probabilities where they can still qualify with 15 points. 

Mumbai Indians

Played 12 | Won 7 | Lost 5 | Points 14 | -0.117

Remaining fixtures: Lucknow (A), Hyderabad (H)

Criclytics qualification probability: 74%

Mumbai’s win against Gujarat meant that they have put a giant foot towards finishing in the top half of the table. Not just that, only one of the two remaining opponents are a big threat to Mumbai’s play-off chances, and that is Lucknow Super Giants. That’s Mumbai’s immediate threat up next, and the five-time IPL champions will be looking to work their magic towards improving the net run rate. 

But MI can’t get complacent against LSG, who are in quite a happy mood after their win against SRH. For Mumbai to finish on top, they will have to pray that GT lose their remainings fixtures by some margin (100 runs), and MI themselves win both games by some margin. 

However, if Mumbai loses both their fixtures, chances are that they could be well eclipsed by RCB, who have a superior net run-rate. So, there is quite a chance that they could be out if they get complacent. 

Lucknow Super Giants

Played 12 | Won 6 | Lost 5 | NR 1 | Points 13 | +0.309

Remaining fixtures: Mumbai (H), Kolkata (A)

Criclytics qualification probability: 61%

It might be a straight shoot-off between Mumbai and Lucknow in their very next encounter. But given that Lucknow’s net run-rate is quite positive (+0.309), they can still make it to the playoffs with 15 points. But if they do lose both games, chances are that they will rue a lot of home defeats. 

However, having said that Lucknow could still make it to the top-two, and CSK’s defeat at the hands of KKR will enable them to have an advantage. For that to be a reality, they will have to go past Mumbai at home, a venue that has haunted the Super Giants. But that away fixture against KKR couldn’t have come at a worse time, considering how KKR have found their mojo.

Royal Challengers Bangalore

Played 12 | Won 6 | Lost 6 | Points 12 | +0.166

Remaining fixtures: Hyderabad (A), Gujarat (H)

Criclytics qualification probability: 44%

Let’s put a smile on that face, RCB are still firm for a place in the playoffs. All of that was enabled by the fact that they trashed a listless Rajasthan Royals unit by over a hundred runs. It was the first time in a few years that a team has gotten such a massive advantage off just one game. Their net run-rate went from -0.345 to +0.166.

But credit and fair play to Bangalore, for the way they have mouled around with the unit. Now is where the tricky part is, their last two games are against Hyderabad, and Gujarat. Ideally, on paper, they should win the first encounter against Hyderabad but the home fixture against Gujarat is where the trouble lies. 

If they don’t win that, they will be stuck on 14 points, so they will want to stomp authority on Hyderabad in the upcoming fixture. But it can be tricky. Luckily, they play the last fixture, so they will have a fair idea of the qualification scenario. 

Rajasthan Royals

Played 13 | Won 6 | Lost 7 | Points 12 | +0.140

Remaining fixtures: Punjab (A)

Criclytics qualification probability: 4%

A staggering loss against RCB has put Rajasthan in a tricky position. They no longer have qualifications in their own hands and will have to rely on multiple results to put them through to the next round. Not too far ago, they were in a comfortable position but somehow have muddled their way out of contention. 

But here’s the thing, if they do manage a big win over Punjab in Dharamshala, and RCB lose one of their remaining two games, RR have a chance of making the cut. For that, they will also need the loser of Mumbai-Lucknow to lose another game. You see the trend, and the only way Rajasthan can really make a case is by beating Punjab by a huge margin. Nothing else matters. 

Kolkata Knight Riders

Played 13 | Won 6 | Lost 7 | Points 12 | -0.256

Remaining Fixtures: Lucknow (H)

Criclytics qualification probability: 1%

While Kolkata might still have a shot in the dark, their win against CSK has really put them back on the map. But all they can get to is 14 points, so they will need some friends. They will not only need Punjab to lose their remaining fixture against Rajasthan but will also need RCB to lose one of their two games. Just like Rajasthan, they will need one of the losers of Mumbai-Lucknow to lose their last fixture, and then win huge against Lucknow in their remaining game. 

So, they will need a huge win against Lucknow, and a lot of prayers, given that their net run-rate is -0.256. 

Punjab Kings

Played 12 | Won 6 | Lost 6 | Points 12 | -0.268

Remaining Fixtures: Delhi (H), Rajasthan (H)

Criclytics qualification probability: 23%

Punjab could end up on 16, thanks to their win over Delhi Capitals. That was nerve-wracking for sure but that has now enabled them to have a sniff at the play-off shot. But their net run-rate of -0.268 is a big challenge. So, for Punjab to go through with just 14 points might be tricky. 

What they will have to do, and there is no compromise about it is winning both the remaining fixtures - Delhi and Rajasthan - with a convincing margin. And will hope that the other results fall on their feet. 

Sunrisers Hyderabad

Played 11 | Won 4 | Lost 7 | Points 8 | -0.471

Remaining Fixtures: Gujarat (A), Bangalore (H), Mumbai (A)

Criclytics qualification probability: 0%

Let’s put it this way, for Sunrisers to qualify, they have to win all their three remaining fixtures and win it all by a huge margin. Because at this point, with a negative 0.471 net run-rate, the only place they are going is back home. The loss against Lucknow came in at the worst possible time for the franchise, and a win there could have changed things around. 

But who are we kidding, all three of Sunrisers’ next fixtures are against a team that is superiorly better than them. To win against Gujarat, Bangalore and Mumbai by a huge margin would be just like finding water in the middle of a desert. 

Delhi Capitals

Played 12 | Won 4 | Lost 8 | Points 8 | 0.686

Remaining Fixtures: Punjab (A), Chennai (H)

Criclytics qualification probability: 0%

Well, they can’t qualify. As simple as that. What they can do is also prevent Punjab and Chennai from qualifying. So that’s there.

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