IPL QUALIFICATION SCENARIOS
Follow UsConsidering no team in the history of the IPL has failed to make it to the playoffs after collecting 16 points in the group stages (in a 14-match season), we will be taking 16 as the cut-off mark for qualification.
With there still being the mathematical possibility of all 10 teams getting to the magic number, we look at what each side needs to do in order to progress to the knockouts. For certain sides at the top of the pile, we look at what they’ll need to do to seal a Top 2 spot, considering qualification will be a more formality for them (unless they spectacularly collapse).
Royal Challengers Bangalore
Remaining fixtures: Delhi (A), Mumbai (A), Rajasthan (A), Hyderabad (A), Gujarat (H)
Criclytics qualification probability: 40%
Through their thumping victory over LSG, RCB have done themselves a huge favour. They are one of five teams on 10 points and need just three more wins to seal a playoff spot.
The tricky part is that they have four consecutive away matches lined up, but RCB have every reason to believe they can get the job done: in the first half, they beat three of the four teams they’re slated to face (DC, MI and RR; they haven’t faced SRH yet). The win in Lucknow will certainly boost their confidence to a whole different level.
The win on Monday is significant in more than one way, as it has also brought their NRR down to - 0.030. Should there be a potential two or three-way tie, RCB might just end up going through with 14 points if they can somehow improve their NRR further.
Chennai Super Kings
Remaining fixtures: Lucknow (A), Mumbai (H), DC (H), KKR (H), DC (A)
Criclytics qualification probability: 58%
Not too long ago CSK were top of the table, threatening to run away from the rest of the pack, but consecutive losses have put them in a spot of bother.
They need three more wins in their last five to be sure of qualification, although 14 might cut it too (in case of a two or three-way tie), granted they maintain their current NRR, which is very healthy.
The good news for CSK is that their fixtures, on paper, are kind. They play three of their remaining five against two of the bottom three (DC x2 and KKR); winning these three games alone will take them through to the playoffs.
They’ve also already beaten both LSG and MI, the other two sides they will be facing.
Three of their remaining five games are at home, too, but CSK’s form at the Chepauk has been a concern. The surface in Chennai has tended to play flat and, as a result, CSK only have a 50% win percentage at home so far this season.
MI and KKR are both volatile sides with dangerous batting line-ups, so these two fixtures could prove to be banana-peel encounters.
Mumbai Indians 
Remaining fixtures: Punjab (A), Chennai (A), Bangalore (H), Gujarat (H), Lucknow (A), Hyderabad (H)
Criclytics qualification probability: 28%
Currently on 8 points, Mumbai will need to win four of their remaining six games to get to the 16-point mark, i.e. seal a playoff spot.
Sounds straightforward enough, but the task is a tricky one, considering they have three extremely tough fixtures lined-up in the form of Gujarat (home fixture, but GT have a 100% win record on the road so far), Lucknow (A) and Chennai (A).
The key for Mumbai will be to win (at all costs) the other three ‘winnable’ games and hope to steal points off one of CSK / GT / LSG.
They have every reason to fancy their chances in the RCB, SRH and PBKS fixtures. While RCB and SRH are home fixtures, the PBKS one shouldn’t daunt them despite being an away outing. For one Mohali is a high-scoring venue (something that works in MI’s favor), but Punjab have been among the worst sides when it comes to utilizing home advantage, having lost 3/4 matches.
Punjab Kings
Remaining fixtures: Mumbai (H), Kolkata (A), Delhi (A), Delhi (H), Rajasthan (H)
Criclytics qualification probability: 42%
Having sealed four huge points vs CSK (A) and LSG (A), Punjab have given themselves an excellent chance of making it to the final four for the first time in nine years.
Their fixtures are great too: they play three matches against teams they’ve already beaten once (KKR, MI and RR) and their remaining two fixtures are against DC, who are reeling at the bottom.
Whether they qualify or not might come down to how they fare at home in the second half of the season. So far, Punjab have been shocking at home, having won 1 of their 4 games. They play three of their remaining five matches at home.
But moving to Dharamshala for the last two matches could just end up working in their favor, considering Mohali has not been kind to them.
14 points, in all likelihood, will not cut it for Punjab, unless they drastically improve their NRR, which is -0.447 as it stands.
Rajasthan Royals 
Remaining fixtures: Gujarat (H), Hyderabad (H), Kolkata (A), Bangalore (H), Punjab (A)
Criclytics qualification probability: 69%
After winning four of their first five matches, a scathing slump has put RR in a position of concern. Again, like Chennai, they need to secure six more points (three wins) to seal qualification but 14 might do too (in case of a tie), thanks to their NRR, which is the best among all teams.
Whether RR qualify or not will come down to how they fare in Jaipur, with Samson’s side playing three of their remaining games there. So far, they’ve had one very good match (vs CSK) and one stinker (vs LSG) at home.
Fixture-wise, it’s hard to classify games as ‘winnable’ and ‘tough’ considering how inconsistent RR have been this season. Case in point, being one of two sides to beat GT, but losing to both RCB and MI.
But should they go on a run like they did at the start of the season, even Top 2 will be within reach. Here, too, their NRR is a huge boon.
Gujarat Titans
Remaining fixtures: Delhi (H), Rajasthan (A), Lucknow (H), Mumbai (A), Hyderabad (H), Bangalore (A)
Criclytics qualification probability: 90%
Playoff qualification is all but sealed for GT, who already have 12 points on the board. In order to not qualify, they will need to lose five of their remaining six matches (and a few of them by a big margin). Should that happen, it would be the biggest collapse in IPL history (on par with KXIP 2018).
Having gotten off to such a good start, Pandya & Co. will already be quietly eyeing a Top 2 finish. 4/6 wins will guarantee the same but three might just do it too, given they have a very good NRR.
With GT, there is little point looking at the fixtures or venue. They truly are a side that transcends everything.
Lucknow Super Giants
Remaining fixtures: Chennai (H), Gujarat (A), Sunrisers (A), Mumbai (H), Kolkata (A)
Criclytics qualification probability: 61%
After squandering a golden opportunity to go top of the table, LSG suddenly find themselves in the same boat as RR, CSK, RCB and PBKS. The good thing, though, is that, despite the scathing defeat on Monday, they still have the second-best NRR among all teams.
The equation for LSG is the same as the other four teams on 10 points: win three of their five remaining games. But LSG might just still have bigger ambitions — that of finishing in the top 2 — and for that, they will need to win at least four of their last five. That should be enough, given their superior NRR.
LSG have two fixtures they start as clear favorites — vs SRH and KKR respectively — but the remaining three fixtures could prove to be tricky. GT are, well, GT, and the uncertainty of wickets back home makes the CSK and MI fixtures a lottery.
They will certainly be kicking themselves for not having broken away from the rest of the pack like GT did.
Kolkata Knight Riders
Remaining fixtures: Hyderabad (A), Punjab (H), Rajasthan (H), Chennai (A), Lucknow (H)
Criclytics qualification probability: 4%
Even in IPL 2021 where they pulled off a miracle, KKR were not in this bad a position: there, they were W4 L5 after nine matches.
Currently on six points, Rana’s side need to win all their remaining five matches to guarantee qualification. In order to progress with 14 points, they will need to win 4/5 and win at least a couple of matches handsomely. That way, NRR might come to their rescue.
Funnier things have happened in the past, but considering they face three of the current top four in their last three fixtures, expecting KKR to go on a run feels like a stretch, considering just how capricious they’ve so far been.
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Remaining fixtures: Kolkata (H), Rajasthan (A), Lucknow (H), Gujarat (A), Bangalore (H), Mumbai (A)
Criclytics qualification probability: 7%
SRH are in a slightly better position than KKR but they, too, have their work cut out: they need to win five of their remaining six games to guarantee qualification.
14 points might not cut it for SRH, even if they get a couple of big wins, considering their NRR is currently the second-worst among all sides.
To add to everything, their fixture list is brutal: three of their remaining six games are against the current top three, two of them away from home.
For SRH to go through, it would require a 2021 KKR-esque heist.
Delhi Capitals
Remaining fixtures: Gujarat (A), Bangalore (H), Chennai (A), Punjab (H), Punjab (A), Chennai (H)
Criclytics qualification probability: 1%
For Delhi, the equation is as simple as it can get — they need to win all their remaining six matches to make it through to the playoffs.
Nothing else will suffice: they have the worst NRR among all sides.
Should they go through, it would arguably be the biggest shock in IPL history. In order to qualify, the team that’s only beaten two other sides reeling at the bottom (KKR and SRH) will have to beat the defending champions in their own backyard, and then score five consecutive wins against teams stationed in the top six.
