Follow UsHad the Punjab Kings gotten over the line against Mumbai Indians in Mohali four days ago, they would have begun the weekend at second spot, within touching distance of playoff qualification.
Instead, the hammering at the hands of the five-time champions has left them languishing at seventh; defeat on Monday (May 8) against the Kolkata Knight Riders will see them sink further to the eighth spot.
But while ‘seventh spot’ may sound gloomy on the surface, the reality is that Punjab have as good a chance of making it to the playoffs as the five teams above them (GT don’t count because, well, they’ve already all but qualified).
Defeats for Bangalore and Lucknow have come as welcome results for the Kings, who will be back in the top four with a victory.
For Shikhar Dhawan’s side, there is good and bad news. The good news is that they are out of Mohali (for good), where they have lost four of their five games. They are back on the road again, and weirdly enough that’s ideal for the Kings, who have an 80% win record away from home this season (4 wins in 5).
The not-so-good news is that they will be up against a highly motivated, highly volatile KKR side who themselves still have everything to play for, thanks to being very much in the race for the playoffs.
Nitish Rana’s side is the kind of team you cannot prepare for, for you do not know what version of them will turn up. They’re a bit like the OG Pakistan. The last time these two sides met each other, though, the ‘bad’ KKR turned up — Dhawan & Co. will be hoping that the same unfolds on Monday.
It’s a huge clash in the context of playoff qualification, and, all things considered, it is an encounter where Punjab will start favorites. Not only is their away form great, KKR have been dreadful at Eden, having just won a solitary match at home.
Dhawan’s side have already blown one golden chance. They can ill-afford to let slip another.
Things to watch out for
Punjab need to start doing well in middle-overs with the ball
As things stand, Punjab are in the midst of an unwanted streak: they’ve conceded at least 200 with the ball in each of their last four matches. A big reason behind the same has been their inability to control the opponent’s innings in the 7-15 phase.
It is one thing being ‘bad’ in a phase, but across their last four games, Punjab have been atrocious in overs 7-15. They’ve leaked runs at 11.4 (when no one else has conceded at even 10), averaged 102.5 (when the second-worst is 37.7) and have taken just four wickets, by some distance the lowest tally among all sides.
They say in T20s, you go a long way in controlling the run-rate by striking regularly, but it’s been a sorry tale for PBKS in the middle-overs of late. Only one bowler has struck multiple times, and that’s part-timer Liam Livingstone.
Rahul Chahar has been relatively ‘economical’ but lack of wickets from his arm is hurting the side. Punjab desperately need Chahar to start striking in the middle.
Will KKR leave out Narine?
After a strong start to the season, Sunil Narine’s form has fallen off a cliff: in the last seven matches, he’s taken a solitary wicket while also going at 9.5 per over.
His overall returns have been so underwhelming that, as things stand, he is statistically the worst spinner in the competition: his E.R of 8.8 is the worst among all spinners (min 25 overs) and he’s also taken the joint second-lowest number of wickets.
In KKR’s previous four games, Narine also completed his quota of four overs just once, meaning he is no longer the franchise’s go-to man. Not on current form, certainly.
It makes you wonder if the franchise would hence be better off using that overseas spot on the pace front, where they are in need of reinforcements. Especially when they already have two quality spinners in Varun Chakravarthy and Suyash Sharma, and another one in Anukul Roy more than capable of filling in.
Both Vaibhav Arora and Harshit Rana did admirably well against SRH — KKR and Rana though, would benefit even more if they have a Lockie Ferguson or Tim Southee up their sleeve.
Ground Details
Eden has been the best venue for batting in IPL 2023, with the average bat-first score reading a remarkable 212. Four games have been played at the venue to date in IPL 2023 and the first innings scores read 179, 235, 228 and 204.
So far, Eden has proven to be a graveyard for pacers. Seamers have delivered 81 overs and leaked runs at an E.R of 10.5, which is significantly worse than that of their spin counterparts (E.R 8.9). Pacers have also averaged more (32.6 vs 27.8) than the tweakers.
Expect another run-fest. And if you’re a pacer, be prepared to get battered. There are no two ways around it.
Tactical Nous
> Punjab have gone ‘horses for courses’ this season when it comes to overseas spots and so it’ll make sense for them to replace Matt Short with Sikandar Raza for the KKR clash. KKR are expected to bowl at least 10 overs of spin and as the graph below suggests, Short and Raza’s numbers against the slower bowlers have been chalk and cheese.
Additionally, Raza’s bowling could come in handy too. This season, KKR’s average of 23.9 vs off-spin is the second-lowest among all sides. We already saw how spin has been the way to go at Eden this season.
> Andre Russell has been dismissed by leg-spin four times this season, his highest for a single bowling type. Punjab might want to save an over for Chahar for Russell, just in case, though it may depend on the latter’s entry point. PBKS also have Livingstone’s leg-spin, but throwing a part-timer at Russell might not be advisable.
Probable XIs
KKR: Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), Jason Roy, Venkatesh Iyer, Nitish Rana (c), Andre Russell, Rinku Singh, Sunil Narine, Shardul Thakur, Vaibhav Arora, Harshit Rana, Varun Chakaravarthy.
PBKS: Prabhsimran Singh, Shikhar Dhawan (c), Liam Livingstone, Jitesh Sharma (wk), Sikandar Raza, Sam Curran, Shahrukh Khan, Harpreet Brar, Rishi Dhawan, Rahul Chahar, Arshdeep Singh.