Qualification Scenario: How Can India Women Qualify For ODI World Cup Semis?

As the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 enters its final league stages, India find themselves in a tight spot. Three teams, namely Australia, England, and South Africa, have already sealed their places in the semi-finals, with only one spot remaining.

Currently, India have four points from five matches and a net run rate (NRR) of +0.526. New Zealand, their closest rival for the fourth spot, also sit on four points, but with a lower NRR of -0.245. 

Here’s a breakdown of how India can still book their place in the knockout stage as the fourth team.

Scenario 1: India Win Both Remaining Matches

This is the most straightforward path because if India beat both New Zealand and Bangladesh, they will move to eight points, which would almost certainly secure qualification. Their already strong net run rate would likely stay above competitors, ensuring they take the fourth semi-final spot regardless of other results.

Scenario 2: India Lose to New Zealand but Beat Bangladesh

If India lose to New Zealand but win against Bangladesh, they will finish with six points. To qualify, they would need New Zealand to lose their final match against England. If both teams finish on six points, net run rate becomes the deciding factor. Given India’s current advantage in NRR, they could still edge into the top four, but only if New Zealand fail to improve their NRR significantly.

Scenario 3: India Beat New Zealand but Lose to Bangladesh

In this situation, India would again finish with six points, and once again, their fate would depend on how New Zealand performs in their last game. If the White Ferns lose against England in that, and both teams are tied on points, NRR would come into play. However, a loss to Bangladesh could hurt India’s NRR, so this route involves more risk.

Scenario 4: India Lose Both Matches

If India fail to win either of their last two matches, they remain on 4 points, and their tournament is effectively over. No team is expected to qualify with such a low tally, especially with Australia, England, and South Africa having already pulled clear at the top.

Scenario 5: India Win One, but New Zealand Also Win Their Final Game

If both India and New Zealand win one more match each, they would be tied on six points. In this case, the team with the better net run rate would go through. However, if New Zealand win their final match by a big margin, they could overturn the NRR deficit. 

India, in this scenario, would be eliminated unless they win their own match by a large enough margin to maintain their NRR edge, which stands in a much better position than New Zealand’s NRR.

To sum it all up, the upcoming clash against New Zealand is shaping up to be a virtual quarter-final, and India's campaign could hinge on that performance alone. If they can hold their nerve, a semi-final spot is still very much within their reach.