QUALIFICATION SCENARIOS
Follow UsAfter losing four of their five matches, Delhi Capitals (DC) were being touted as favorites for a second bottom-two finish in two years, but the Rishabh Pant-led side have turned around their season spectacularly.
With 14 matches left in the group stages, DC are right in the mix to make it to the playoffs. They’ve accumulated 12 points from 12 games on the back of their victory against table toppers Rajasthan Royals and will get to 16 points if they win their remaining two games. So, what do DC’s playoff chances look like? What do they need to do in order to make it to the final four?
DC qualification scenario breakdown
Points accumulated - 12
Remaining fixtures - Royal Challengers Bengaluru (A), Lucknow Super Giants (H)
Maximum points they can get to - 16
Current Net Run Rate: -0.316 (third-worst in the competition)
Will DC qualify for the playoffs if they win their remaining two games?
In a 14-game IPL season, no team has ever failed to make it to the playoffs after accumulating 16 points. However, merely getting to 16 points might not be enough for DC this time around. They will need other results to go their way.
Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH), Chennai Super Kings (CSK), and Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) will all get to 16 points if they win two of their remaining three games. In which case, it’ll be a four-way tie between DC, CSK, SRH & LSG for two spots.
Should it come to that, DC might struggle because both SRH (-0.065) and CSK (+0.700) have a significantly better NRR.
So what should happen for DC to make it to the playoffs?
The easiest way for DC to qualify is
> DC win their next two games and get to 16 points.
> Two of CSK, SRH & LSG lose two of their remaining three games. This will mean DC will be on 16 points, one of CSK, SRH & LSG on 16 points and the other two on 14 points. Thus DC will enter the top four and make it to the Eliminator.
A slightly twisted way for DC to go through to the playoffs is
> DC win their next two games handsomely and get to 16 points while improving their NRR
> DC, SRH, CSK & LSG are in a four-way 16 points tie, but DC progress by virtue of having a better NRR
Can DC qualify with 14 points?
Mathematically yes. If CSK win their remaining three games, SRH beat LSG but lose to GT & PBKS, LSG lose to SRH & DC but beat MI, and DC beat LSG but lose to RCB, then all three of DC, SRH and LSG will be stuck on 14 points. Mind you, it could very well be a four-way tie on 14 points if PBKS win their last three games as well. It will then come down to NRR.
That won’t bode well for DC, with both SRH & PBKS having a much better NRR.
So realistically, 14 points won’t cut it for the Capitals. They will *need* to beat RCB at Chinnaswamy and Lucknow at the Arun Jaitley Stadium in order to be in pole position to qualify for the Eliminator.
Does DC’s victory tonight affect RCB’s chances?
Not really. DC can still get to 16 points, yes, but RCB face DC in five days’ time, so the Reds can halt the playoff charge of the Pant-led side by beating them. If RCB beat DC, then the maximum points both sides can reach is 14. RCB will then have a significant edge due to their NRR being much better.
