South Africa knocked out: what does this mean to Group 2?

In arguably what is the single biggest upset in T20 World Cup history, the Netherlands have beaten South Africa by 13 runs to knock the Proteas out of the competition. Heading into Sunday’s clash, all South Africa, who were on 5 points, needed was a win, but the Proteas couldn’t get the job done. 

The result means that India have qualified for the semi-finals. The game against Zimbabwe is no longer a do-or-die contest; it will merely decide whether they finish first or second in the group.

The Bangladesh vs Pakistan clash is also now a virtual quarter-final. The winner of the Bangladesh-Pakistan encounter will progress as the second semi-finalist from Group 2.

Scenarios

What if Pakistan-Bangladesh gets washed out?

In that case, Pakistan will progress. A washout will result in South Africa, Bangladesh and Pakistan ending up in a three-way tie on five points, but Pakistan will progress thanks to having the best NRR among all sides in Group 2.

How can India top the group?

India will top the group if they merely get the better of Zimbabwe. Should they beat Zimbabwe, they will finish on 8 points and will take on England in the semi-finals.

India will also top the group if Bangladesh beat Pakistan (even if they lose to Zimbabwe). Practically, it’ll be near-impossible for Bangladesh to edge India’s NRR. 

India will also top the group if their game vs Zimbabwe is washed out. They will finish with 7 points in case of a washout; the maximum Pakistan and Bangladesh can get to is 6 points.

How can India finish second in the group?

The only scenario in which India finish second in the group is if Pakistan beat Bangladesh and the Men in Blue lose to Zimbabwe. In that case, Pakistan will end up topping the group owing to their NRR.

Should India finish second, they will take on New Zealand in the semi-finals.