Alive against all odds, RCB aim to break Eliminator curse

If you’re someone who happens to be following Royal Challengers Bangalore on social media but is completely out of loop when it comes to IPL 2022, you wouldn’t be mistaken for thinking that the Reds, a couple of days ago, won their maiden IPL title. For such was the magnitude of celebrations in the RCB camp when Mumbai Indians knocked out the Delhi Capitals. The scenes were akin to the Leicester City players going berserk in the aftermath of the Chelsea vs Tottenham clash at the Stamford Bridge in 2016.

The Leicester players lost it completely as Chelsea’s draw against Spurs made the Foxes the league champions, but the reality for RCB is that their campaign has merely just begun. They will need to win three more matches on the trot to be crowned champions.

It is a task that might look straightforward and doable, but RCB will enter Wednesday’s clash knowing that in each of the last two seasons, they faltered in the very first hurdle, the Eliminator. 

The bottom line, then, is this: if Faf du Plessis’ side are to progress to Qualifier 2, they’ll not only have to get through an extremely dangerous Lucknow side that was unlucky to not finish in the Top 2, but also bury ghosts of the past.

The Mohammed Siraj question facing RCB

Following a stunning IPL 2021 campaign — 11 wickets @ ER 6.78 — RCB had no second thoughts about retaining Mohammed Siraj. The speedster was one among the Reds’ three retentions, and they even chose to retain the 28-year-old ahead of their most prolific wicket-taker, Yuzvendra Chahal.

That there’s a realistic chance that Siraj might be dropped for the Eliminator against Lucknow should tell you just how bad a season he’s had. 

After Siraj went three consecutive games not bowling his full quota of four overs — registering combined figures of 7-0-85-0 across those matches — RCB finally pulled the plug on the speedster ahead of the do-or-die encounter versus Gujarat, instead fielding Sid Kaul.

Ahead of the all important Eliminator, then, the Reds have a major decision to make: to field or to not field Siraj?

Going purely by numbers, RCB will probably be justified in leaving out Siraj. Statistically, IPL 2022 has been Siraj’s worst ever IPL season, and overall, he’s proved to be a liability. The right-armer has not provided potency up-front — avg 63.8 and ER 9.8 in the powerplay — and has been smashed to smithereens at the death, evident by his economy of 13.6 in the final five overs. He’s fared well in the middle-overs but the make-up of RCB’s bowling unit does not allow du Plessis to use Siraj exclusively there.  

But with the Eden Gardens expected to assist the quicker bowlers, there is also merit in the argument that RCB have no choice but to trust Siraj. More so due to the fact that Josh Hazlewood will desperately need support with the new ball should the conditions be pace-friendly. 

Sid Kaul is the alternative, but the 32-year-old is predominantly an old-ball bowler. Since IPL 2018 he’s averaged 44 while going at nearly 10 in the powerplay, and while he undoubtedly has the ability to be a handful in the back end, the need for RCB is potency up-front: in the group stages, they were the worst-performing side with the ball in the first six.

The three-time finalists might just have no other choice but to take a leap of faith and bring back Siraj for the Eliminator. 

LSG need to be wary of Glenn Maxwell the bowler 

A fortnight ago, we explained how Glenn Maxwell’s golden arm is playing a silent hand in RCB’s playoff charge. That article was published on the back of his fine showing against SRH, where he finished with figures of 1/13 off 2 overs.

Since then, the Australian has grown from strength to strength with the ball in hand, having registered combined figures of 6-1-45-2 across the PBKS and GT matches; his bowling has genuinely been one of the reasons for the Reds entering the Top 4. 

Put simply, Maxwell has been exceptional with the ball this season. The off-spinner has managed to maintain an ER of 7.05 whilst taking 6 wickets, and he’s been outrageously good in the powerplay: his ER of 6.2 inside the first six is the best among all spinners in IPL 2022 (min 8 overs in the phase).

LSG will do well to be wary of Maxwell’s threat for two reasons: one, he’s deceptively good and two, they’ve struggled big-time against off-spinners this season. Lucknow’s SR of 109.4 against off-spinners is the second-worst among all sides in IPL 2022.

None of their right-hand batters have managed to dominate finger-spin this season, and it’s largely been a major struggle for their left-hand bats. Quinton de Kock has still fared alright, but off-spin has been the nemesis of Krunal Pandya, who’s struck at 73.9 while being dismissed twice. Throw in Evin Lewis, who is expected to play the Eliminator and has fared even worse than Krunal against off-spinners this season, Wednesday could be a potential feast for Maxwell should LSG not be careful.

A lot will depend on the surface, of course, but in these two sides’ first meeting of the season, Maxwell took 2-0-11-1 in a game where Hasaranga and Ravi Bishnoi registered combined figures of 6-0-67-0. 

If you’re a Lucknow batter, you better come prepared for Maxwell. 

Lucknow’s batting-order headache

In a way, the Lucknow think-tank would have been relieved to see Rahul and de Kock play out all 20 overs against the Knight Riders. It meant that there was no need for them to make any tricky calls with respect to the batting order. 

But lightning doesn’t strike twice. And so, come the Eliminator, how LSG fare with the bat could very well depend on how effectively the management uses the batters at their disposal.

Throughout the group stages, LSG were guilty of batting Marcus Stoinis far too low. There were even murmurs after the Rajasthan clash that the Super Giants might bat the Australian in the Top 4. But with Evin Lewis now coming back into the XI, such a move looks unlikely. 

Lewis’ inclusion is bound to complicate things even further. For a good stretch of games in the second half, Lucknow employed Deepak Hooda at number three, and the right-hander did a fine job, racking up scores of 34, 52, 41 and 27. But with Lewis now back, it is no longer certain that Hooda will continue to bat at No.3. How and where LSG will use Krunal Pandya — assuming he’ll be fit for the Eliminator — also remains a mystery.

Lucknow are blessed to have a plethora of destructive, world-class batters in their line-up, but all the firepower will count for little should the resources not be utilized properly and efficiently. 

Team Combination and Predicted XI

RCB have only one selection headache, which is choosing between Siraj and Kaul. Expect the Reds to back Siraj to come good at Eden.

RCB: Virat Kohli, Faf du Plessis (c), Rajat Patidar, Glenn Maxwell, Mahipal Lomror, Dinesh Karthik (wk), Shahbaz Ahmed, Wanindu Hasaranga, Harshal Patel, Mohammed Siraj, Josh Hazlewood

Krunal Pandya missed the KKR clash due to a niggle. It is likely that, come the Eliminator, the all-rounder will walk back into the XI in place of Manan Vohra. 

LSG: Quinton de Kock (wk), KL Rahul (c), Evin Lewis, Deepak Hooda, Krunal Pandya, Marcus Stoinis, Jason Holder, Krishnappa Gowtham, Mohsin Khan, Avesh Khan, Ravi Bishnoi