TACTICAL PREVIEW
Follow UsBoth teams have had injury concerns in the lead-up to the World Cup. Australia are without Travis Head at least till the middle of the group stages, while not having Ashton Agar - the only left-arm spin option up their ranks in the tournament has certainly been a huge blow.
As far as Sri Lanka are concerned, they do not have the services of their premier spinner, Wanindu Hasaranga, and have now also lost their skipper, Dasun Shanaka, through injury as well. Furthermore, if certain reports are to be believed, their fast bowler Matheesha Pathirana too will miss the crucial game against Australia due to a niggle to further add to their woes.
Amid the injury count going up, both sides do not have a point to boast of this World Cup, and that is what is at stake in this tie. Losses in the opening three fixtures could be denting on so many levels, but a win could offer them some hope, and hope is what both Australia and Sri Lanka need at the moment.
Things to watch out for
Can Sri Lanka solve the opening conundrum?
In the two matches this World Cup so far, Kusal Perera has scored 0 and 7. Given that this is a crucial tie, Sri Lanka could consider bringing in Dimuth Karunaratne, who has scored 534 runs at 44.50 in 14 innings as an opener this year. Pathum Nissanka, on the other hand, returned to form in the game against Pakistan, scoring his first fifty in nine innings.
In fact, in these nine innings, Nissanka has scored at an average of just 23, compared to 60.4 in the previous 13 outings.
Nissanka and Karunaratne have put on 859 runs at 66.07, scoring at 5.85, which is far superior to any other partnership at the top in ODIs this year. Sri Lanka should consider a combination that has worked well rather than experimenting at this juncture.
Can Maxwell step up with the bat?
In the absence of a frontline second spinner, Glenn Maxwell has been forced to throw his arm over more than he would like. Against South Africa, he bowled an excellent spell, giving away just 34 runs in his 10 overs, chipping in with two wickets, but he has hit just 15 and 3 in his two outings with the bat. His entry point is crucial. No one has a better strike-rate than Maxwell in the final phase of the innings post the 2019 World Cup.
However, he has come in quite early in the first two matches - in the 28th over against India and against the Proteas, he came in in the 12th over and barely contributed, given that it was unchartered territory for him. However, if he were to come in early, he could take on the spinners. After all, he averages over 40 and strikes at 131 in ODIs post the 2019 World Cup.
Can Smith turn things around?
Steven Smith has been a shadow of his best in ODIs this year. In seven innings this year, Smith has managed just 202 runs at 28.9, having hit just one fifty. In the three years before that, the batter had 1,107 at 65.1 with four tons and six fifties. Australia, who are yet to breach the 200-run barrier in the mega event so far, will look to Smith to be the glue that takes them to a formidable total.
What works in his favour is that he has a terrific record in India (Ave 40, SR 89) and quite decent against Sri Lanka (Ave 38.5, SR 84) in ODIs.
Ground details
Pace has traditionally fared better at the Ekana Stadium, Lucknow, with them accounting for 52.2% of the wickets, albeit at a slightly higher economy rate (5.2) compared to the spinners (4.7). In all the ODIs in Lucknow so far, the captains winning the toss have preferred to chase, but it has backfired as the team batting first have won thrice.
However, the team winning the toss might still continue to bowl first given that there could be some dew coming into play later on. The average first innings score here is 250, which is just about par, but if they are to turn it into a match-winning one, they will be looking to push it closer to the 280 mark.
Tactical insights
Dilshan Madushanka and Dunith Wellalage will be looking to get the better of Marnus Labuschagne, given that the Australian batter has struggled against such bowling types. In ODIs since 2022, Labuschagne has been dismissed five times (Ave 10, SR 54) by left-arm pacers, while he has fallen to left-arm orthodox spinners on six occasions (Ave 31.3, SR 74).
Kusal Mendis has been in terrific form in the World Cup this year, having already hit 76 (42) and 122 (77) in the two matches so far. In fact, since the start of the Asia Cup, Mendis has hit 468 runs at 58.5, along with a strike-rate of 122.
What has been more evident is that he has upped his game in the powerplays - a period where he has struck at 99 and an average of 79. However, he does have a weakness against the pacers, especially when they bowl back-of-length or short. Nearly half of his dismissals against the quicks have come when they have bowled at these lengths, so Australia could try targeting that.
Team combination
Australia
“We'll announce it at the toss tomorrow, but I dare say there won't be too many changes,” Australia skipper Pat Cummins said in the pre-match press conference.
However, the form of Marcus Stoinis is no doubt a cause for concern for Australia. He has not scored fifty in four years, and moreover, the last time he scored in excess of 30 was 16 months back. Cameron Green could be the one who could potentially come in. Alex Carey was benched after just one poor game, and Australia could look to bring him in to counter the threat of Wellalage and Maheesh Theekshana.
Australia probable XI: David Warner, Mitchell Marsh, Steven Smith, Marnus Labuschagne, Josh Inglis/Alex Carey (wk), Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis/Cameron Green, Pat Cummins (c), Mitchell Starc, Adam Zampa, Josh Hazlewood
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka will be forced to make a change as their skipper Dasun Shanaka ruled out. We might see Chamika Karunaratne slot in his place with Mendis leading the side. Matheesha Pathirana has conceded over 90 runs in both matches so far, and regardless of his availability, we could see either Lahiru Kumara or Kasun Rajitha named in the XI.
Sri Lanka probable XI: Pathum Nissanka, Dimuth Karunaratne, Kusal Mendis (c & wk), Sadeera Samarawickrama, Charith Asalanka, Dhananjaya de Silva, Chamika Karunaratne, Dunith Wellalage, Maheesh Theekshana, Kasun Rajitha/Lahiru Kumara, Dilshan Madushanka
