Can Australia bury the ghost of 2016 against Sri Lanka?

The last time Australia played a Test series in Sri Lanka, Steve Smith and Co. lost all three encounters by massive margins, but things have changed since then. Amongst teams who have played at least 10 Tests at home since 2017, Sri Lanka have the third-worst winning percentage (42.1%) after Bangladesh (31.2%) and West Indies (41.6). Sri Lanka have won only eight of their last 19 Tests at home and lost 10, while Australia are still unbeaten under Pat Cummins’ leadership and will be high on confidence after winning a series in Pakistan.  

However, winning a series in Sri Lanka is not going to be an easy task for Australia who are struggling with quite a few injuries in their camp. The hosts secured a stunning 3-2 victory in the One-Day International series last week and will be counting on a bowling attack packed with spinners to give them the edge in the two-match Test series, starting on Wednesday (June 29). During the ODI series, we got more than a teaser of the sort of damage the spinners can do and we could expect the ball to turn big from the very first day in Galle.

Another trial by spin awaits Australia

The Galle International Stadium has been the most spin-friendly venue since 2018. There are 14 stadiums that have hosted five or more Tests in this period and spinners here have the best average (27) and strike rate (55). They have bowled 76.1% of the total overs and scalped 79.1% of total wickets in this time period. The last time Australia toured Sri Lanka, Rangana Herath wreaked havoc with his left-arm spin and Sri Lankan spinners took 54 of the 58 wickets. And, you could once again expect Dimuth Karunaratne and Co. to attack Australia with as many spinners as possible.

Sri Lanka went with four spinners - Lasith Embuldeniya, Praveen Jayawickrama, Ramesh Mendis and Dhananjaya de Silva - in the XI when they last played a Test at home and it won’t come as a big surprise if they do the same against Australia. They have also drafted legspinner Jeffrey Vandersay, who was impressive in the ODI series, into the squad and could give him a go in place of one of the two left-arm spinners. However, this is a different Australian batting unit. In the subcontinent since 2018, only Indian batters (48.8) have a better average than Australia (45.5). It’s actually pretty simple, the battle between Sri Lankan spinners and Australian batters will decide the fate of the series.

Australia need Warner and Smith to score big

With scores of 97, 160, 44*, 91 and 104*, Usman Khawaja had a series to remember in Pakistan, while Alex Carey and Smith too made decent contributions. Khawaja would like to replicate what he did in Pakistan but Australia would also want big runs from David Warner and Smith. It’s not like the two haven’t been scoring runs but they haven’t been doing that as the standard they have set for themselves. 

Warner hasn’t scored a century in his last 17 innings despite crossing the 30-run mark eight times. Interestingly, the left-handed opener averages close to 40 against spin in Asia since 2016 but has an average of just 24.44 against pace. What’s more, Sri Lanka is the only team Warner hasn’t scored a century against in Test cricket. 

Meanwhile, Smith too hasn’t been able to convert his starts into hundreds, something that he has done so seamlessly in the past. The batting maestro has only managed one century in his last 30 innings but has scored 10 fifties in this period. And, the right-hander is eager to stamp his authority in Sri Lanka. "I have missed batting on wickets that are spin-friendly. They're so exciting, they're fun, there is always something happening. I think it's great for the game to see something like that. When the pressure is on, that is when I go to another level mentally," Smith told AAP. 

Marnus Labuschagne and Travis Head too didn’t have a great series in Pakistan and would look to turn things around.

Sri Lanka have the batting to trouble Cummins and Co.

The likes of Karunaratne, Angelo Mathews, Dhananjaya de Silva and Pathum Nissanka have all been in pretty good form in red-ball cricket and the onus will once again be on them to tackle Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Nathan Lyon. Their batting looks quite solid on paper and could make things difficult for Australian bowlers. Sri Lankan skipper Karunaratne has been one of the most consistent openers in the last few years, while Mathews is averaging close to 60 since 2020. In fact, no other batter has a better average and balls per dismissal (134.2) than Mathews since 2020 (minimum 20 innings). 

However, Karunaratne will have to be careful against Starc, against whom, he averages just 14.5 and has been dismissed eight times in 14 innings. De Silva (47.56) and Nissanka (44.91) are also averaging in the high 40s, while Niroshan Dickwella and Dinesh Chandimal will only provide more depth to their batting. 

After cutting his finger in the first T20I, Starc did not take part in the rest of the limited-overs fixtures. He is believed to have returned to bowling in the nets in full throttle, but one is not sure if he is able to bowl comfortably without his finger being taped. If he is unable to bowl without the tape, he will not be allowed to take field and if that's the case, Australia will have no qualms in paying Josh Hazlewood ahead of him. 

Starc was Australia's best bowler in 2016, picking up 24 wickets at 15.16, well ahead of Nathan Lyon, who scalped 16 wickets at 31.93.

Sri Lanka must be on a high after a 1-0 series win in Bangladesh last month and a victory over Australia would bring some welcome cheer to the island nation which is suffering a dire economic crisis. 

Probable XIs

Sri Lanka - Pathum Nissanka, Dimuth Karunaratne (c), Kusal Mendis, Angelo Mathews, Dhananjaya de Silva, Dinesh Chandimal, Niroshan Dickwella (wk), Ramesh Mendis, Lasith Embuldeniya, Praveen Jayawickrama/Jeffrey Vandersay, Asitha Fernando/Kasun Rajitha.

Australia - David Warner, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Steven Smith, Travis Head (subject to fitness)/Glenn Maxwell, Alex Carey (wk), Cameron Green, Mitchell Starc/Josh Hazlewood, Pat Cummins (c), Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Swepson/Jon Holland (subject to fitness).