Can Bangladesh, Afghanistan ditch old templates at picturesque Dharamsala?

Dharamshala is best internationally known as the home of Tibet’s Dalai Lama. It is perhaps one of the most spiritual places in the country, with it being a pilgrimage for several residents. 

Come Saturday (October 7), it will be a pilgrimage for cricket fans, who will be blessed with a sight of the most picturesque ground in the world - The Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association (HPCA) Stadium. 

Located at a high altitude of 1,457 m above sea level and with snow-capped Himalayan mountains in the background, there aren’t better venues in world cricket, let alone this year’s World Cup, purely in terms of aesthetics. Bangladesh and Afghanistan are the first visiting sides to the city in this year’s competition. 

But it won’t be an easy task for either, considering their squad composition. Both countries have packed their units with a plethora of spinners, which essentially is a kryptonite in such conditions. The HPCA stadium is perhaps best known for its ability to have the ball hooping around for the pacers. 

Can these two sides ditch their templates for a brand new one on Saturday? 

Things to watch out for

All eyes on Tamim-less Bangladesh

It is arguably the most controversial week before heading into a cricketing World Cup for Bangladesh. One of their long-standing pillars in the batting department, Tamim Iqbal, was overlooked for the tournament due to concerns over his fitness. That further opens up a void at the top of the order - a place that has haunted the national team. 

Amongst the qualified teams for the World Cup, Bangladesh average the worst (30.3) for the first wicket (since 2022). More significantly, their run-rate (4.8) is also the second-worst for any side heading into the competition. Injuries have significantly ruined a lot for Bangladesh, but now they must prove a point. 

It will likely be Tanzid Hasan Tamim opening alongside Litton Das, and the two will have the biggest challenge - HPCA stadium. Amongst all the World Cup venues, the HPCA stadium is the second worst batting place in the powerplay in India, with Lucknow being the worst. So, it is perhaps their biggest test. 

Which of the pace unit will stand out?

The wickets here in Dharamshala are perhaps as pace-bowling friendly as wickets could get in India. Yet again, amongst all ten venues in this year’s World Cup, the HPCA stadium ranks second-best for pacers, with a bowling average of 29.8, which is only marginally behind Chepauk’s 29.7. It makes pace bowlers as excited as any wicket in world cricket. 

So, the question is, which of these two pace units will stand out? On paper, Bangladesh’s pace unit - comprising of Taskin Ahmed, Hasan Mahmud, Shoriful Islam and Mustafizur Rahman - should start as firm favourites. 

Also Read: Asian sides strongest on pace front, South Africa lag behind

Numbers, too, make Bangladesh start favourites, with their pace unit averaging the third-best amongst the qualified teams, only behind India and Pakistan. Bangladesh’s pace unit will heavily bank on Shoriful’s start. In the same time frame, for bowlers with a minimum of 25 overs, Shoriful averages 18.3, with 12 powerplay wickets. 

Considering Afghanistan only average 27.6 against left-arm pacers, the twin challenge of Shoriful and Mustafizur is likely to influence the outcome of the game. 

Ground Details

The most scenic venue in India has hosted only four ODIs. The game against South Africa in 2020 was abandoned without a ball being bowled. In the other four, teams batting first have been bundled out for less than 200 twice, 226 once, and one score of 300+. 

One of the primary reasons behind that is the early movement that the seamers get during the early part of the day. Given it is a day game, the only time there will be any help for the pacers will be during the first ten overs of the day. Teams have averaged 37.3 while chasing in comparison to 22.9 batting first. 

Read: Venue guide feat Bengaluru, a batters paradise, to Delhi, a bowlers heaven

Pacers have picked up 67.9% of the wickets at the venue, so it will be a no-brainer for both teams to pack their XI with many pace options. 

Tactical Insights

- While it is highly risky, Bangladesh could consider the selection of Tanzim Hasan Sakib for the clash against Afghanistan. Afghanistan are a top-order dependent team, and on a surface like in Dharamshala, it is important to gain an advantage early on in the innings. While only playing two matches, Tanzim has shown excellent control in the powerplay, with two wickets against India - averaging 8.5 and at an economy rate of 2.4. 

- Bangladesh would be pretty confident of their chances against one of Afghanistan’s best batters - Ibrahim Zadran. Zadran only averages seven against left-arm pacers in the first ten overs, and front-loading the likes of Shoriful Islam and Mustafizur Rahman might benefit Bangladesh’s cause. 

Team News and Probable XI

While Bangladesh are almost certain to play at least three spinners at other venues, they might have to rejig their plans pertaining to their opening contest against Afghanistan here in Dharamshala. 

Bangladesh’s Predicted XI: Tanzid Hasan Tamim, Litton Das, Najmul Hossain Shanto, Shakib Al Hasan ( c ), Towhid Hridoy, Mushfiqur Rahim (wk), Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Hasan Mahmud, Taskin Ahmed, Shoriful Islam, Mustafizur Rahman

Afghanistan, due to the dearth of pace bowling, will have to stick with their best bet - spinners coming good. While there might be a case to gamble with someone like Abdul Rahman, the gravitas of the situation might leave them to resist their temptation. 

Afghanistan’s Predicted XI: Ibrahim Zadran, Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), Rahmat Shah, Hashmatullah Shahidi ( c ), Najibullah Zadran, Mohammad Nabi, Rashid Khan, Azmatullah Omarzai, Mujeeb ur Rahman, Fazalhaq Farooqi, Naveen ul Haq