Follow UsThree weeks ago, pretty much no one foresaw a scenario in which Afghanistan would be in pole position to make the semi-finals of this World Cup, ahead of New Zealand, with seven games remaining in the group stages. Post the clash between the aforementioned two sides in Chennai on October 18th, the Kiwis stood atop the table with 4 wins in 4, while Afghanistan reeled near the bottom, having registered just one win in four games.
Well, how the tables have turned. Four successive New Zealand defeats and three consecutive Afghanistan wins later, here we are, 20 days on: Afghanistan have their fate in their own hands and will qualify for the semis if they win their remaining two games.
Mathematically, then, it’s a dream scenario for the Afghans. However, strictly practically, qualification is anything but straightforward for Hashmatullah Shahidi’s side, who have to run through the second and the third best sides in the competition to make it to the semis.
First up is Australia, who themselves are on a five-match winning streak, and the bout will take place at a venue likely to skew the contest even more in the Kangaroos’ favour due to its batting-friendly nature.
Remember, Australia themselves are yet to confirm qualification, so the stakes are very high also for Pat Cummins’ men, who on Tuesday are set to have a full 15-member squad to choose from for the first time in this World Cup.
Afghanistan have so far been defying the odds all tournament. Can they do it one more time?
Things to watch out for
Australia have tough selection calls to make
The good news for Australia is that they finally have everyone fit and available (assuming vertigo won’t keep Steve Smith out of tomorrow’s clash). The bad news is that they now have tough selection calls to make.
You’d think Warner/Head/Marsh/Smith/Inglis/Maxwell/Stoinis would be Australia’s preferred Top 7 but in the England clash, the Kangaroos were bailed out big time by Marnus Labuschagne (71) and Cameron Green (47).
Leaving Green out might still not be a tough call, but dropping Labuschagne, who is their second-highest run-getter in this World Cup and has played a couple of very important knocks, will be very harsh. Even if the Queenslander’s strike rate (79.30) might be on the lower side.
Maxwell will definitely slot straight back in, but could we possibly see Labuschagne retain his spot ahead of Marsh, who anyway does not have a great record batting in the middle-order?
Smith not recovering in time will solve the headache temporarily but the Australian management have big calls to make.
Can Afghanistan spinners dominate the Australian middle-order?
Overall in this World Cup, Australia average a healthy 39.0 vs spin but when you dig deep, what’s clear is that their middle-order has been troubled by spin, big time. Australia’s No.3 to No.7 (non-openers) average just 29.0 against spin in this World Cup, which is the second-worst amongst all sides.
Australia have also lost the joint second-most wickets against spin in the 11-40 phase in this World Cup, having lost 19 wickets to the slower bowlers.
With Afghanistan guaranteed to have at least three spinners in the XI, there’s an avenue there for Hashmatullah’s side to not just choke the Aussie middle-order, but run through it.
However, for that, they’ll have to first get through the openers (Head & Warner) and that won’t be easy on a flat wicket like Wankhede.
An added caveat is how non spin-friendly the Wankhede has proven to be, so far. Spinners’ average of 64.9 at Wankhede is the second-worst amongst all venues in this World Cup.
There’s a way through this Aussie batting line-up for Afghanistan, but it won’t be easy.
Ground Details
Three games have been played at the Wankhede so far in this World Cup, and the average first innings score is, wait for it, 379.
But while batting has been pretty easy in the afternoon, it’s been tough under lights. The bowling average in the second innings has been 15.2 compared to 62.2 in the first innings. Few days ago, Sri Lanka were skittled out for 55 by India while in the first game at this venue, South Africa bowled England out for 170, defending 400.
So it’s a ‘win toss, bat first’ venue.
Also, Wankhede has been a graveyard of sorts for spinners. Pacers have not only taken 85% of the wickets, they’ve also averaged 27.6 compared to the spinners’ 64.9.
Tactical Insights
> Australia can ponder promoting Josh Inglis potentially to No.4 or even No.3, depending on the situation. He has a very good T20 record against the three Afghan spinners (Mujeeb, Nabi, Rashid), averaging 67 against the trio.
> Likewise, don’t be surprised if Afghanistan hold back a couple of overs of Rashid Khan for Marcus Stoinis. In T20s, Rashid has dismissed Stoinis 4 times in 46 balls. In the England game, it was a leggie (Livingstone) that got the better of Stoinis.
> Afghanistan could also potentially target Travis Head with the off-spin of Mohammad Nabi up-front. Head’s average of 30.7 vs off-spin is the worst for him against any bowling type. In the New Zealand game, he was dismissed by Glenn Phillips and Phillips was the only bowler against whom he had a strike rate under 100. Afghanistan should be careful to not feed a lot of Fazalhaq Farooqi’s left-arm seam to Head because in the past 18 months, Head averages 193 against left-armers while striking at 123.7.
Qualification scenarios
Australia will qualify for the semis with a win on Tuesday. Afghanistan, meanwhile, need to win each of their remaining two matches to confirm qualification.
But Afghanistan can still qualify with one more win. For that, they’ll have to hope New Zealand lose to Sri Lanka and Pakistan lose to England.
Either way, valuable points at stake for both sides.
Team news and Probable XIs
Mitchell Marsh has rejoined Australia’s squad, while Glenn Maxwell should be good to go after missing the England game due to CA’s concussion protocols. There is a slight uncertainty over Smith, who revealed in the press conference he experienced vertigo symptoms, so Australia might take a late call over the participation of the veteran.
Australia likely XI: David Warner, Travis Head, Steven Smith, Marnus Labuschagne / Mitchell Marsh, Josh Inglis (wk), Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis, Pat Cummins (c), Mitchell Starc, Adam Zampa, Josh Hazlewood
Expect Afghanistan to bring Naveen-ul-Haq back into the side in place of Noor Ahmad.
Afghanistan likely XI: Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Ibrahim Zadran, Rahmat Shah, Hashmatullah Shahidi (c), Azmatullah Omarzai, Ikram Alikhil (wk), Mohammad Nabi, Rashid Khan, Mujeeb Ur Rahman, Fazalhaq Farooqi, Naveen-ul-Haq