ANALYSIS
Follow UsFrom the likes of Sohail Tanvir, Glenn McGrath, Dale Steyn and Doug Bollinger in the initial few editions to the Nortjes, Rabadas and Boults of today, overseas seamers have consistently turned out to be season-defining trump cards in the Indian Premier League (IPL). With pace being more relevant than ever, expect foreign seamers to get sold like hot cakes at the Mega Auction.
Each of the last two IPL auctions saw a foreign pacer end up as the most expensive buy, and while it might not be feasible for franchises to break the bank like they did during the mini-auction, teams are certain to fight tooth and nail over acquiring the services of Tier 1 speedsters.
More than 60 foreign pacers will go under the hammer later this week, but who among them is likely to catch franchises’ attention and induce a bidding war? We analyze the options.
ALSO READ: IPL 2022 mega auction: Indian pacers - strike bowlers, phase specialists and young guns
The strike bowlers who will be targeted by franchises
To begin with, it would only be fair to get the three bowlers in the marquee list out of the way - Trent Boult, Kagiso Rabada and Pat Cummins.
As the bowler with the best recent record among the three, and as someone who delivered an IPL title as recently as 18 months ago, Boult is certain to be the most sought-after.
Rabada and Cummins might not have created the desired impact with the ball in the past year, but the experience and x-factor they possess makes them tempting prospects. In particular Cummins, who has now added six hitting to his T20 arsenal.
But outside the marquee list lie myriad options for the franchises to target.
If we are to talk about proven strike bowlers, teams need to look no further than Lockie Ferguson and Mustafizur Rahman. Not only are both the bowlers at the very top when it comes to both strike rate and economy, they are also proven IPL performers, both of whom enjoyed an outstanding IPL 2021 season. Adept bowling in all three phases, the pair provide the complete package.
On the other hand, limited but no less effective and experienced are the trio of Dwayne Bravo, Josh Hazlewood and Tim Southee. As a bowler on the rise in T20 cricket, Hazlewood would be a prime target for sides, particularly on the back of his showing in the T20WC, but both Bravo and Southee are also above the strike and economy median.
The list of proven wicket-takers ends with the pacers mentioned above, but there is no dearth of options outside the Tier 1 seamers.
Lungi Ngidi, Dushmantha Chameera, Saqib Mahmood, USA’s Ali Khan, and the West Indies duo of Odean Smith and Obed McCoy have all been among the best strike bowlers in T20s in the last two years, as has the rejuvenated Andrew Tye.
An out-and-out strike bowler whose numbers don’t do justice to his ability is Mark Wood, but franchises could very well see him as a player worth targeting due to the raw pace he possesses.
The Mr. Reliables with the new ball
When it comes to powerplay bowling, Hazlewood, Ferguson, Mustafizur, Archer (whose participation is doubtful), Boult and Southee are a cut above the rest - in terms of their skill, effectiveness and experience.
But if franchises are to raid the lower tiers, there are an abundance of options, both offensive and defensive.
Among overseas seamers to have taken 5 or more wickets inside the powerplay in the last two years, no bowler has a better strike rate than Obed McCoy, who has struck once every 12.75 balls. Throw in the left-arm angle of his and he becomes an irresistible pick.
But outside of McCoy, two other left-arm seamers have been gun with the new ball in the last two years. George Garton and Ben Dwarshuis have both maintained a balls per wicket record of below 20, a figure that is better than 66% of the seamers that’ll be auctioned later this week.
Saqib Mahmood is another seamer who has been extremely potent in the first six overs, striking once every 15 balls.
In terms of the defensive options, Reece Topley, Josh Little and Blessing Muzarabani have all maintained an economy under 6.5 inside the powerplay in the last two years.
There is no scarcity of options, although it has to be said that, historically, franchises have seldom taken punts on players inexperienced at the top level.
The end-over specialists
Barring the usual suspects that is Ferguson, Bravo, Mustafizur etc, there are loads of interesting options for the teams to look at.
When it comes to death bowling, the name that stands out in the list is former KKR man Ali Khan. Among overseas seamers who have bowled 10 or more overs at the death in the past 2 years, Khan stands tall as the best of the lot, maintaining an economy of 6.9 while nearly conceding just a solitary boundary per two overs.
Only one other bowler has a comparable record and that, interestingly, is South Africa’s Daryn Dupavillon. Both these bowlers are potential wildcard options for franchises to look at, although it has to be noted that both players are largely unproven at the highest level.
Despite having the reputation of being a new-ball bowler, Jason Behrendorff has fared well at the back-end, as has veteran Fidel Edwards.
Tymal Mills and Afghanistan’s Naveen-ul-Haq, both of whom possess killer variations, have also been among the best seamers at the death.
Adam Milne has been very economical, but one name that could really interest franchises is Australia’s Nathan Ellis, who has taken a staggering 33 wickets at the death in the said period while maintaining an economy of 8.75. As someone who showed good composure under pressure in the three games he played for Punjab last season, multiple teams might be willing to take a punt on the Hobart Hurricanes man.
Ellis’ Australia teammate Andrew Tye completes the minority that has maintained an economy under 9.00 at the death in the past 2 years.
The question of youth and experience
As is the case with every sport, numbers alone do not influence picks. There are plenty of intangibles involved, particularly in auctions, and what will be interesting to see come the mega auction is if teams will continue to give precedence to experience.
The likes of Chris Jordan, Kane Richardson and Nathan Coulter-Nile have not taken the world by storm through their performances in recent years, but history tells us that the ‘experience’ factor is bound to give them an edge over other competitors.
Franchises also tend to invest in youth and potential, particularly during a Mega Auction, so there might yet be heavy interest for the likes of Riley Meredith, Jayden Seales, Marco Jansen and a handful of unknown names identified by teams’ scouts.
When it comes to overseas seamers, it is best we expect the unexpected.
