OPINION
Follow UsMega-auction is where teams form the core of their batting. While the Indian players are expected to gain most of the attraction, the overseas pros will be just as important. In this space, we analyze all the options available to the franchises, based on their batting alone. To ensure that outdated data doesn’t impact the analysis, numbers are considered from 2020 onwards.
Overview
A total of 61 overseas players are registered under the batter’s category, all of whom are put on the following scatter plot.
The graph is divided into four quadrants, separated by the median (the middle value that separates the higher half from the lower half of the data set) and not a mean (average). These values are a balls-per-boundary ratio of 5.85 on the x-axis and a dot ball percentage of 36.09 on the y-axis.
Hence, the first quadrant denotes the most valuable set of batters - the boundary hitters with a fairly low dot ball percentage. The runs keep coming with them. The second quadrant contains the accumulators - they don’t score the boundaries as consistently but keep the dot ball percentage low through hard running. Those in the fourth quadrant rely on boundaries but consume a lot of deliveries between scoring shots. The third quadrant underlines those battling on both fronts.
The most valuable picks
There are a total of 14 players in the first quadrant if you include the three entries on the axes. Surprisingly, it is filled with inexperienced pros in the league. Only Quinton de Kock has recent IPL experience. A regular in the league, in fact, he emerges as the best pick and should be in demand as well.
Alex Hales, Usman Khawaja, Matthew Wade and Rilee Rossouw are the other players with IPL experience but it's nearly minimal and way back in time. Hales is the most exciting option among these names as an opener - average 37.1, strike-rate 158.3. With a history of going unsold at the auction, this might just be his time. The same goes for Wade given he can be moved up and down in the order, although his best value will remain at the top.
The untested lot throws Devon Conway as a decent option. He averages 58.3 at a strike-rate of 137.3. The left-hander can be a perfect fit in a team like Delhi Capitals which has retained a dynamic opener in Prithvi Shaw. Similarly, the swashbuckling Finn Allen (average 34.9, strike-rate 182.6) will complement the serene Virat Kohli in the Bangalore outfit. James Vince is another strong contender.
For middle-order, Rossouw has excellent numbers (average 31, strike-rate 148) while providing the variation of a left-hander but will the franchises go back to him? Laurie Evans falls in the same age bracket. A younger option is Cameron Fletcher (average 47, strike-rate 154.8). Does any franchise have their eye on him?
The accumulators and boundary hitters
This is where we talk about the superstars. A lot of the overseas pros are surprisingly the accumulators or rely heavily on the boundaries.
Both Faf du Plessis and David Warner are in the former but still maintain a balls-per-boundary ratio closer to the median value. The only thing that may reduce their price is age. Although, both of them have exhibited top-notch form and fitness.
The Proteas, Rassie van der Dussen and David Miller have built a niche on minimizing their dot balls. Dussen’s excellent numbers against spin (average 74, dot ball percentage 24.9) should fetch him a contract this year.
The likes of Aiden Markram, Shimron Hetmyer and Sam Billings have shown the flexibility to bat anywhere in the order with decent numbers against spin. Hetmyer, besides being a left-hander, successfully embraced the finisher’s role for Delhi last year, bringing down his dot-ball percentage and balls-per-boundary ratio to 25.6 and 4.7 respectively.
Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith are Test cricket stars but a 10-team tournament might keep them in contention. For the same reason, the newbies and the untested contingent - Josh Phillippe, Ben McDermott and Pathum Nissanka - also stand a chance.
An upside of this lot is the ascension in their strike-rate after getting their eye in. Among notable names, the strike-rates of Miller, van der Dussen, Billings, du Plessis, Hetmyer and Labuschagne shoot up over 150 after facing over 25 balls in an innings. This instills massive value in this group.
The fourth quadrant is oozing with power-hitting options. The presence of Evin Lewis, Jonny Bairstow, Jason Roy, Paul Stirling, Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Martin Guptill here confirms the pattern - popular openers around the world believe in boundaries.
Bairstow must induce most bids by the virtue of his experience and flexibility to bat in the middle-order. It is also a golden chance for the likes of Stirling and Roy, two highly capable openers generally ignored due to already stacked top-orders in the league earlier.
Playing 51 T20s since 2020, Stirling averages 29.2 while striking at 144.9. In powerplay, the same numbers are 34.1 and 151.3. Roy has taken care of his susceptibility against spin. Since the turn of the decade, he has smashed the tweakers at 34.2 and 149.
Playing over 50 T20s around the globe at the age of 20, Rahmanullah Gurbaz is an appealing mix of youth and experience. Janneman Malan has also accrued amazing numbers in a young career. Meanwhile, Evin Lewis has the highest strike-rate among openers (152.8) in this group with a boundary every four balls. There is no dearth of openers with a clear indication of what to expect from them.
Subsequently, the middle-order options are only a handful. Nicholas Pooran has the most international and IPL experience despite not fulfilling his potential consistently enough. Glenn Phillips is a recent bloomer at the top level. Bhanuka Rajapaksa emerges as a back-up option.
However, eyes will be set on the latest U19 sensation Dewald Brevis. Holding a strong position in the above graph, Brevis has played only two T20s but is an excellent future prospect that appeared ready to step up. How many franchises are ready to invest in an overseas recruit from the U19 stage, it remains to be seen.
Red flags
Like it was the case with the Indian batters, the overseas catalog also contains a couple of renowned names. Aaron Finch and Eoin Morgan have now had multiple IPL stints without any notable success. In the case of Morgan, his overall form poses a big question mark.
None of the other names mentioned here have played more than three IPL games and might get ignored again. However, there lie some young white-ball specialists in Tim Seifert and Rovman Powell.
