Prestige at stake, Eden welcomes Pakistan, England for a ‘final’ conquest

England have nothing to lose; Pakistan have a mountain to climb. You can decipher it from whichever angle you want to, but the fact that this is a largely inconsequential game at Eden Gardens makes a lot of difference to the plan. 

For Pakistan to qualify for the semi-finals of the ICC Cricket World Cup 2023, the margin must be greater than 287 runs or equivalent. That’s surely not happening. 

Then what’s in store for us in this match? Wish I could have added some excitement, but the pattern of the results in the last few matches has had a rather tiresome and boring sequence. One just wishes we navigate through the last two days of the league phase and welcome the knockouts with renewed vigour.

But would Pakistan look at it that way? They only hold a mathematical chance, but as Babar Azam said in the press conference, they wouldn’t be satisfied with a league-stage finish. Many may call it delusion, but that is Pakistan’s Jazbaa - a mythical spirit that has come to action when people least expect it. Just like how they made it to the finals of the 2022 T20 World Cup after losing to India and Zimbabwe in the group stage. 

Nothing is out of reach for Pakistan (mathematically). 

Things to watch out for

England’s multitude of problems

This is already a forgettable campaign for England and their problems are not uni-directional. The defending champions have only eight 50+ run partnerships in the tournament till now, which is the second least for a team. Further, against spinners, England have lost 28 wickets - second most for a team while having the lowest balls per wicket ratio against spinners among all teams. They have clearly failed to turn up when it mattered. 

The inability to adapt to the conditions was so dire that against the Netherlands, they needed yet another superhuman effort from Ben Stokes to bail them out of the woods. That despite batting first, their strong suit overall in ODIs. 

As a matter of fact, England have won just three out of 13 games in ODIs since 2022 while batting second, having the second-lowest win % among all teams chasing at this time. For Pakistan to have a semblance of prestige, it would be prudent to insert England to chase under the Eden sky.

Adil Rashid - England’s silver lining

For an ageing team like England, it was paramount all of their senior players rose to the occasion, but they hardly turned up. Sans Adil Rashid, who is having his best year in ODIs, no bowler has taken more wickets than him for England in CWC 2023. He has taken two or more wickets in five of his last six innings and has conceded at less than 4.5 runs per over in four innings in this World Cup. 

What further accentuated his success factor is that he bowled in the middle overs phase, where he’s the leading wicket-taker for England with ten wickets to his name. His bowling performance against Pakistan is not good in ODIs as he has the highest bowling average against them amongst the opponents he has faced in ODIs, but the kind of form he is in, Pakistan wouldn’t take him lightly, and if they do attack him, chances are that he might pick truckload of wickets.

Ground Details

Teams batting first at the Eden Gardens Stadium in Kolkata have won four out of four times in ODIs since 2017. Captains have also chosen to bat first on five out of six occasions since 2017. In this World Cup, all Teams have preferred to bat first here at Eden Gardens. 

The average first-innings score is 258, whereas the average first-innings winning score is around 280 since 2017. Pacers have taken more wickets than spinners at this venue, but on the other hand, spinners have had a slightly lower economy.

Tactical Insights

->  Fakhar Zaman’s matchup against Chris Woakes is going to be a defining factor as he has been dismissed thrice by the pacer - which is the most times a bowler has dismissed him in ODIs. 

-> Adil Rashid has bowled well against right-handed batters in this World Cup, with 12 of his 13 wickets coming against them. Pakistan have four right-handed batters in their top six, so it will not be easy for them.

Probable XIs

Both sides are expected to field an unchanged side for the Eden clash. 

Pakistan: Abdullah Shafique, Fakhar Zaman, Babar Azam (c), Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Saud Shakeel, Iftikhar Ahmed, Agha Salman, Hasan Ali, Shaheen Afridi, Mohammad Wasim Jr, Haris Rauf

England: Jonny Bairstow, Dawid Malan, Joe Root, Ben Stokes, Harry Brook, Jos Buttler (c & wk), Moeen Ali, Chris Woakes, David Willey, Gus Atkinson, Adil Rashid