TACTICAL PREVIEW
Follow UsThe World Cup is World Cupping in the last week of the league stage.
With a handful of games left, three teams have booked a spot in the semi-finals, four are out and three are in contention for the final knockout spot - New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan. All of these sides have one game left. The fact that none of them are playing each other makes things more interesting.
New Zealand go first in Match 41, facing the recently eliminated Sri Lanka. Their campaign has fallen off the cliff. They won their first four games but all those wins came against teams currently in the bottom half of the points table. Locking horns with India, South Africa, Australia and Pakistan, the Kiwis fought hard but ended up second in every game. Continuing on the same pattern, they should win against Sri Lanka and will start as favorites but they are on a four-match losing streak. The rain forecast further complicates things for them.
They have also struggled with injuries. Facing Pakistan at the Chinnaswamy Stadium, they could only field two seamers which took a toll on their bowling returns. Clearly, the favorites have some catching up to do. In a happy news, skipper Kane Williamson has cleared that Lockie Ferguson is available for selection, having missed the previous match due to injury.
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Sri Lanka, on the other hand, are knocked out already. But they have the Champions Trophy qualification to play for. Moreover, they must be fuelled by the turn of events against Bangladesh. Carrying the wrath of Angelo Mathews timed out dismissal and the motivation to finish the tournament on a good note, they would want to make a statement. They have already tasted success at this venue, beating England in one of the most one-sided clashes of this tournament.
Things to watch out for
Will Madushanka receive any support?
The left-arm pacer, Dilshan Madushanka is the highest wicket-taker in the tournament with 21 scalps. However, Sri Lanka average 44 runs/wicket at an economy of 6.5. Both the worst by a distance.
While Madushanka has snaffled wickets consistently, he has barely received support from other bowlers. The second-highest wicket-taker in Sri Lanka’s line-up is Kasun Rajitha with eight scalps.
In a tournament where the swing bowlers have struggled, Madushanka has struck upfront to give Sri Lanka an upper hand. But that pressure has not been maintained by the spinners following up, ultimately taking a toll in the final 10 overs as well. Their spinners average 114.4 runs/wicket. Sri Lanka's death overs' economy of 10 runs/over in the death overs is also the worst.
Hence, Madushanka needs support from other bowlers, especially Maheesh Theekshana who has managed only five wickets in seven matches. The lead spinner's failure to strike, and to cease runs in crucial passages, has crippled Sri Lanka’s bowling attack.
Conway needs to break the shackles
Given New Zealand are playing before Afghanistan and Pakistan, they won’t precisely know what equation they need to crack to have a secured semi-final spot. The more the runs, the merrier.
Devon Conway has tapered off after his unbeaten 152 in the first match against England. Since then, he averages 23.1 for 162 runs with a top score of 45.
The left-hander has fallen to soft dismissals, often finding fielders or not finding the middle of his bat while playing an attacking stroke.
The Kiwis would like to go all guns blazing, whether they bowl or bat first. Their top four have been in good form, including Rachin Ravindra, Kane Williamson and Daryl Mitchell but Conway batting big will elevate their batting returns further.
It becomes more crucial when you realize that Tom Latham and Glenn Phillips have not hit form as expected.
Ground Details and Conditions
In three matches so far at the Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru, the side batting first has crossed the 350-run mark twice - Australia scored 367 while New Zealand notched up 401, both against Pakistan. The other score of 156 was an oddity.
The venue is known for big totals at a good scoring rate. The average and run rate of 41.8 and 6.9 are both the highest for a venue this World Cup.
It is also a graveyard for spinners. At 19.4%, it has the second-lowest percentage of wickets at a venue for spinners in this competition. The economy of 6.8 is the worst. New Zealand learned it the hard way when their spinners were carted around the ground by Fakhar Zaman. Hence, Ferguson is sure to replace either Mark Chapman or Ish Sodhi if his fitness remains intact.
The pacers would like to keep the length away from the batters. Good length has been economical - 5 runs/over. Meanwhile, the back-of-a-length region has produced the most wickets - 18.3 runs/wicket. Bowling on either side of these areas will only result in the ball traveling the park.
The weather forecast isn’t promising. The chances of rain are the highest at around 3 PM and 6 PM.
Tactical Nous
> Sri Lanka would like to block the third-man region as a scoring option for Kane Williamson. In two games this World Cup, the Kiwi skipper has scored 17% of his runs against pace in the third-man region.
> Scoring three hundreds, Rachin Ravindra has been in fascinating form in this World Cup. Against pace, there are only two lengths where his strike rate dips below 80. It is 78 at good length deliveries and 79 facing short balls. Given the ground dimensions, short balls could be a risky option for the Sri Lankan pacers. Hence, tight bowling in the good length region is imperative to keep the left-hander in check.
> Good length will also be a productive option for the Kiwi pacers against Sadeera Samarawickrama. The number four batter averages only 14.5 at that length at a mediocre strike rate of 59.2.
Probable XIs
Sri Lanka can go ahead with the same side if everyone is fit. New Zealand are expected to add Ferguson to their XI, with Ish Sodhi likely to make way.
Sri Lanka: Kusal Perera, Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis (c/wk), Sadeera Samarawickrama, Charith Asalanka, Angelo Mathews, Dhananjaya de Silva, Maheesh Theekshana, Kasun Rajitha, Dushmantha Chameera, Dilshan Madushanka.
New Zealand: Devon Conway, Rachin Ravindra, Kane Williamson ( c ), Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham (wk), Glenn Phillips, Mark Chapman, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Trent Boult, Lockie Ferguson.
