TACTICAL PREVIEW
Follow UsAfghanistan have staged the first upset of the tournament. So far, the only surprising factor in terms of results has been the big margin of victories.
The result has lent hope and motivation to the lower-ranked teams.
It will be tough not to recall South Africa’s shocking defeat against the Netherlands that knocked them out of the T20 World Cup last year. The two teams will lock horns in a different format and much different circumstances in the ODI World Cup on Tuesday (October 17).
South Africa are not playing a must-win game. On the contrary, they are the team to beat in this tournament, having trumped Sri Lanka and Australia by big margins. Their batting has clicked in both games while the bowlers bulldozed the Australian batters.
It is not that South Africa doesn’t have any vulnerabilities.
With Marco Jansen at number seven, they have the longest tail in the competition on their batting card. But the form of Quinton de Kock, Rassie van der Dussen, Aiden Markram and others have ensured the opposition are not able to exploit that.
The Netherlands have lost both their games. They tested Pakistan in the campaign opener but were never in the game against New Zealand. The Dutch will derive confidence from the few positives in those defeats, their win over the Proteas last year and Afghanistan toppling the Englishmen. And these are the reasons South Africa won't be taking the Netherlands lightly.
Things to watch out for
Bavuma needs to hit form
South Africa have ticked multiple boxes in their first two games. Except Temba Bavuma’s dull start to the tournament deprive them of one tick - captain’s form.
The Protea skipper was out for 8 in Match 4 against Sri Lanka and 35 in Match 10 against Australia. The 35 versus in South Africa’s second game yielded more worrying signs. In a 108-run opening stand, during which his opening partner, Quinton de Kock, contributed at a strike rate above 100, Bavuma’s 35 came from 55 balls. It ceased South Africa from taking the game away from the opposition with a dominating opening stand.
Among openers to have played more than 50 balls in this World Cup, Bavuma's false shot percentage is the third highest (28.3%).
So far, his failures have been covered by other in-form batters, with South African batters scoring four hundreds in two games.
Heading into the World Cup, Bavuma averaged 79.6 at a strike rate of 104.1 in 10 ODIs this year. The Proteas would want their skipper to get back to that touch and get among impactful runs. The clash against the Netherlands provide a good opportunity in Bavuma’s footsteps.
Can Netherlands tackle SA’s powerful middle-order?
Call it a David vs Goliath contest, South Africa have one of the most powerful middle-orders in this tournament. In their first two games, they have scored at a run rate of 7 in overs 11 to 40, the highest among all sides. The figure is heavily influenced by the batting paradise they relished in Delhi. However, each of Markram, Heinrich Klaasen and David Miller have averaged above 50 in this phase this year, striking at more than 95.
On the opposite end, the Netherlands have suffered with the ball in this department. They headed into the tournament at a bowling average of 45.3 in the middle-overs, the highest among all World Cup sides. In this tournament, it has gone up to 59.3, the second worst after Sri Lanka. They have picked only six wickets in two games in this phase.
The off-spinner Aryan Dutt and the medium pacer Bas de Leede have bowled the most overs for the Netherlands in this phase since 2022. They will have the onus to put breaks on South Africa’s progress at this stage.
Ground Details and Conditions
Dharamsala is known to aid pacers. That trait has been missing in this competition thus far. The pacers have been wicketless in the first ten overs of the first innings. In fact, spinners have snapped 40.6% of the total wickets to fall here in this World Cup, making it one of the better tracks for slower bowlers. However, 11 out of 13 wickets for spinners have come in the first innings.
Hence, it is tough to sum up the HPCA (Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association) Stadium. One game has been won by the team batting first and one by the chasing side. The first innings scores have fluctuated from Afghanistan getting bowled out for 156 to England mounting 364/9.
Tactical Nous
> Quinton de Kock has two hundreds in two games this tournament. The Netherlands can target him with the off breaks of Aryan Dutt early on. Since 2022, off-spinners have dismissed de Kock six times, the most by a bowling type after the right-arm pacers. Three of these dismissals have come in the powerplay.
> The Netherlands skipper Scott Edwards loves sweeping against the spinners. Since 2022, Edwards has scored 316 of his 668 runs against spin with the sweep strokes (reverse, paddle, slog, etc). That is a heavy proportion of 47.3%. He also averages 79 while playing these strokes.
Overall, 59% of Edwards’ runs against spin square of the wicket or behind. South Africa would like to keep those areas packed.
Probable XIs
South Africa
The Proteas will have to take a call between a second spinner and a fourth seamer. Gerald Coetzee played in Delhi, while Tabraiz Shamsi took the field in Lucknow. The change in venue will certainly influence their decision. Wrist-spinners in Dharamsala have managed only 6.3% of the wickets so far in this World Cup. A left-arm wrist spinner, however, is yet to bowl on the HPCA surface.
Quinton de Kock (wk), Temba Bavuma ( c ), Rassie van der Dussen, Aiden Markram, Heinrich Klaasen, David Miller, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi, Tabraiz Shamsi/Gerald Coetzee
Netherlands
If fit, Logan van Beek is expected to replace Ryan Klein. Otherwise, the Dutch can field the same XI.
Max O’Dowd, Vikramjit Singh, Colin Ackermann, Bas de Leede, Teja Nidamanuru, Scott Edwards (c/wk), Sybrand Engelbrecht, Roelof van der Merwe, Logan van Beek/Ryan Klein, Aryan Dutt, Paul van Meekeren
