TACTICAL PREVIEW
Follow UsIt all comes down to one match. No matter how the two teams have reached the 2023 Cricket World Cup finals, the glory lies in the result on November 19 (Sunday). India have been unbeaten throughout this World Cup, and they will be up against Australia, a team that has been unbeaten in the last eight games after losing the first two games.
India edged past Australia in the group stage. However, the pressure of a final is different. Will the Men in Blue finally break their jinx?
For now, let's look at some key battles and tactical insights for players from both teams that could affect the result of this game:
Aussie openers brace for the Shami express
With the kind of World Cup Mohammed Shami has had, one could argue why only against the openers and not the rest of the batters, and that will be a valid debate.
The right-arm pacer has 23 wickets in six innings at an average of 9.1, an economy of 5.0, and a bowling strike rate of 10.9. Phew! Impeccable, isn't it?
Let's get to why he will be a menace, particularly for the Aussie openers.
Out of those 23 wickets, eight have come against left-handers while averaging just 4 and a bowling strike rate of 6.5. Among 60 bowlers who have bowled five-plus overs and picked up at least a wicket against the left-handers, only five have a better economy than Shami's average. All his eight wickets against lefties have come from round the wicket.
Also Read: Stumps and Shami - A match made in heaven
In the first ten overs, David Warner averages 87 and strikes at 142.6 against right-arm pacers when bowled from over the wicket (1 dismissal) compared to 27 and 87.1 from round (2 dismissals). Head’s tendency to poke at the ball away from the body is also somewhere Shami has his expertise.
Pull the length back to Travis Head
Alongside Rohit Sharma, Head has been one of the most destructive openers. Among openers who have scored 150+ runs in this WC, Head's strike rate of 139.1, being the best for an opener, is a testimony of it.
However, the left-hander has an age-old issue of short balls against pacers. In this WC as well, that has been evident. When the pacers have bowled full or on a good length, he has a whopping strike rate of 211 and 149.
But, when the pacers have pulled their length back, his strike rate is lower (92), and two of his three dismissals have come from this length. Don’t be surprised if he is peppered with plenty of short ones.
Australian batters against Indian spinners
Aussies batting against the Indian spinners will be crucial in the finals. So far in this tournament, their batters have not consistently been good against the spinners, especially in the middle overs.
Marnus Labuschagne has the most runs against spin for Australia in overs 11-40, but his strike rate is on the lower side (79.8). Glenn Maxwell has 155 runs against them at a spectacular strike rate of 130.3, but that's all due to one innings against Afghanistan (120 runs in that innings against spin in overs 11-40). The same goes with Mitchell Marsh; 70 out of his 142 runs against spin in this phase came against Bangladesh spinners on a placid Pune pitch.
Steve Smith, who was supposed to be their saviour in this department, has an average of 26 with five dismissals. Warner has also blown hot and cold against the spinners. Among ten Aussie batters who have faced 30+ balls against spin, two have a strike rate of 100+, two between 80-100, and six below 80.
This battle or phase of play could end up deciding the contest.
Good length deliveries to Rohit in the powerplay, the hope of survival
In India's success throughout this tournament, Rohit Sharma's contribution in the powerplay has been defining. In eight out of the ten innings in the first ten overs, Rohit has had a strike rate of 110+. The only innings where he failed was against Australia in the first match (0). Against England, he scored an unbeaten 24 off 30 balls in that phase.
He has been brutal against the pacers whenever they have bowled in the slot and short. In the 26.5% of the deliveries, they have bowled full, Rohit has hit a boundary every 2.8 balls, and every third ball bowled short (15%), the ball has disappeared to a boundary. Let's make it more interesting. He has hit a six every 10.6 balls when bowled full compared to 4.3 when bowled short.
Also Read: Rohit Sharma, the dark knight in the team of superheroes
The only respite for the Australian bowlers is to bowl on good length. 53.5% of the deliveries he has faced are at this length, where Rohit has only struck at 85.
This is where Josh Hazlewood will come into play. In the first ten overs, the right-arm pacer has bowled 65% of his deliveries on good length, conceding only 2.2 runs/over against the right-handers. Hazlewood got one to nip back in in the league stage from a good length to dismiss Rohit. He will look to repeat the same.
Back-of-a-length delivery - not a great option against the Indian openers
It's not just Rohit. He and Shubman Gill are among the best against short balls. Rohit has an overall strike rate of 197.3 against pacers when they have bowled back of a length (8-10m). On the other hand, Gill has struck at 187.5 on this length against the quicks.
Among batters who have faced 20+ against pacers from this length, Rohit occupies the first spot, and Gill is second in the list of best strikers against back of a length delivery. So, Australia, be careful of cranking it short.
A case for more off-cutters against Indian batters
While we are unsure of the conditions in play for the final in Ahmedabad, there may be some grip on the wicket. In that case, a ploy that the Australian bowlers could be looking to exploit is the off-cutters. It was something that Pat Cummins used to perfection in the semi-final against South Africa.
Indian batters have lost seven wickets against off-cutters. It is an area where Cummins has had his success in the tournament, with five wickets from bowling off-cutters. Not only does the Australian captain average 15.8, he also has an impressive economy of 6.7, bowling off-cutters.
Four of the seven dismissals, though, have been at the death, a thing that the Australian bowlers should note. It is a high-risk, high-reward scheme, though, considering how the Indian batters strike at 146.7 against such deliveries.
Leg spin of Zampa is not a problem for India
Throughout this WC, spin hasn't been a problem for India. The home team has lost only ten wickets to spinners, averaging 114.8, the best among all teams.
They will be up against Adam Zampa, the leading spinner of this tournament. In any case, Zampa might find it more difficult than the Indian batters. In this WC, from India's top six, Rohit is the only batter with a dismissal against leg spin (2), but he has a strike rate of 117.
None of the remaining five batters have lost a wicket against the right-arm wrist spinners. Interestingly, every one of the top six batters have a strike rate above 90, making it more daunting for Zampa.
Cummins vs Iyer - the short ball ploy
Shreyas Iyer has been on a whole new level in the second half of the tournament. He has shut the critics of his weakness against the short ball. However, in the last five matches, the pacers haven't exploited it too much at the start of his innings.
The pacers immediately attacked him with the short ball in his first five games. The quicks attempted 51.8% deliveries short against Iyer in the first 30 balls during the first five matches. However, it has come down to 22.4% in his last five games.
Iyer's game against the short ball might have been upgraded, but Cummins is one bowler who will look to exploit it regardless of his improvement.
The Australian skipper has picked up 13 wickets in this WC, nine of which have come from the short ball (8m+). He has bagged a wicket every 24 runs and 23.4 balls when he has bowled on this length.
Good length ball, very effective against Marsh
Australia's top three are fearsome strikers, and Marsh is one of them. He has an overall strike rate of 124.9 against pacers. Whenever the quicks have bowled full to him, he has struck them at 242.1 and 156.5 when bowled short.
Despite that, his overall strike rate has taken a hit because of his mediocre record on good length. The beefy batter has four dismissals against the seamers from this length, averaging 18 and striking at 69.2.
Indian pacers will definitely target him with length balls, just like Jasprit Bumrah did effectively in the league stage.
