ANALYSIS
Follow UsBefore we look at the existing uncertainties and the possible solution for India’s World Cup squad, here is the most favorable scenario assuming everyone is available -
Best case scenario:
First XI: Rohit Sharma, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul (wk), Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Mohammed Siraj, Jasprit Bumrah.
Possible Squad Players: Ishan Kishan (reserve opener and keeper), Suryakumar Yadav (reserve middle-order batter), Yuzvendra Chahal (reserve spinner), Shardul Thakur (reserve pacer and lower-order batter), Sanju Samson (reserve middle-order batter and keeper), Axar Patel (reserve all-rounder), Umran Malik (reserve pacer).
Even in the best-case scenario, India’s squad and the ideal XI are far from perfect. They have their own pros and cons -
Pros
This is India’s strongest XI on paper, and each player is the best option for his respective role.
Cons
A couple of major ones that can come back to haunt the team at a crucial juncture.
1. There is no left-hander in the top-6
2. The tail is too long
3. There is a lack of good fielders among the substitutes
With that established, let us now look at the uncertainties that stare India in the face and all possible solutions to limit the damage.
Uncertainty 1: Shreyas Iyer remains unavailable
To counter this situation, India have four options -
Option 1: SKY replaces Iyer
This is the most popular like-for-like replacement. SKY is already a T20 legend and a beast against both pace and spin, an essential quality for a middle-order batter. However, he has had a mediocre start to his ODI career, with an average of 24.06 after 21 innings. This is down to 19.13 in nine innings in India. The series against West Indies will give him a chance to push his case.
Option 2: Samson replaces Iyer and takes gloves
If we go by plain numbers, Samson deserves a chance to be in the XI or in the squad ahead of SKY if the choice is between the two of them. Samson averages a handsome 66 after 10 ODI innings. And, in a testament to his adaptability, he has averaged 30+ at a strike rate of 90+ against all five opponents and the five countries he has played in. If not for injuries, he would have been the incumbent ahead of SKY in the Australia series before the IPL 2023.
Being the superior gloveman, it is logical to have Samson as the keeper ahead of KL Rahul when both are in the XI. Given that KL is injured right now, it is highly likely that Samson will be India’s keeper in the ODIs against West Indies unless…
Option 3: Ishan Kishan replaces Iyer
Given the affinity of the current management towards Kishan, this option cannot be ruled out. The biggest and, for now, the only pro of this option would be having a left-hander in the top-6. However, Kishan will be force-fit into a role that is not natural to him.
If this happens, this situation will be akin to what the previous management did with KL Rahul in the 2019 World Cup. Starting at number four, Rahul moved to the opening spot when injury ruled Shikhar Dhawan out. India were not able to identify a stable number four when this happened.
If India do not experiment with Kishan in the middle-order against West Indies, we can pretty much rule this option out.
Option 4: Axar Patel replaces Iyer
It is absurd that so far in his career, Axar has been stereotyped as a like-for-like for Ravindra Jadeja. Though, apart from the two obvious commonalities between them - bat left-handed and bowl slow left-arm orthodox - Axar is everything Jadeja is not.
Axar is an excellent player of spin. In IPL 2023, he averaged 66.5 against spin at a strike rate of 130.4. His average was the third-best for an Indian in the season after Yashasvi Jaiswal (no dismissals) and Sai Sudharshan (average 133).
With the ball, Axar is quicker through the air, is taller, has the ability to bowl defensively, and can bowl with the new ball as well, given he relies on the lack of turn for his wickets. That will give the captain a chance to deploy Axar and Jadeja in different phases when both are in the XI.
The pros of this move will be having a left-hander in the top-6 and an additional bowling option. England and Australia – the two other favorites for the World Cup – will have more than six bowling options. The con is that it is an unproven tactic so far.
It is clear that the current management does not have a lot of trust in Axar’s batting. In the T20 WC, he got a chance to bat in only three innings despite India having a right-hand-heavy XI. In the Tests against Australia earlier this year, he was never given a promotion above seven despite being the second-highest run-getter in the series.
But, if the previous management took a punt on Vijay Shankar and the current one on Deepak Hooda, both on the basis of vibes alone, why not do it with someone who has been executing it at the top level for a while now?
Like the case with Kishan, we can pretty much rule Axar’s promotion out if he isn’t tried in the series against West Indies.
Uncertainty 2: KL Rahul remains unavailable
Assuming Shreyas Iyer is back at his deserving spot at four, India will have options #2 and #3 from uncertainty#1 to replace KL. The series against West Indies will tell us which of the two is a preferred option. India can also have both Samson and Kishan in the XI at the expense of SKY against West Indies. Though this is highly unlikely as it can lead to more questions than answers.
Uncertainty 3: Both Iyer and KL remain unavailable
In this case, India will have to fill Iyer’s spot from options #1 and #4 and KL’s spot from options #2 and #3 from uncertainty#1. This is exactly the situation India find themselves in right now against the West Indies.
Uncertainty 4: Jasprit Bumrah remains unavailable
In an alternate universe, a fit Prasidh Krishna would have been vying for this opening. However, given he has been out of action for more than a year as well, India have two clear alternatives.
Option 1: Shardul Thakur replaces Bumrah
Since the last 50-over World Cup, Shardul has played more matches (30) and bowled more overs (221) than any other pacer for India. Given that Shardul is the only frontline pacer who can bat in the entire country, he has been given an extended run.
Shardul in the XI would solve one major con of the best-case scenario. They will no longer have a long tail. However, that will come at a cost. Shardul has had an economy of 6.2 in the period mentioned above. This is the joint second-worst along with Lockie Ferguson (also 6.2) after Blair Tickner (6.5) among bowlers with 100+ overs in this period.
Option 2: Umran Malik replaces Bumrah
India will need a proper x-factor to even give an impression of filling Burmah’s void. Umran Malik is one such bowler who, with his rapid pace, can be the difference like Mark Wood for England in the current Ashes.
However, Umran has played only eight ODIs so far and has an economy of 6.5. Though India have Mukesh Kumar and Jaydev Unadkat in the squad against West Indies, it will be logical for them to include both Shardul and Umran in the XI in as many games as possible before the World Cup. This will help them to weigh the pros and cons of picking one over the other for the World Cup.
Looking at the bigger picture, with or without their first-choice players, India will find it tough to overcome the cons highlighted in the best-case scenario. The one player who can come close to paper over the cracks is Axar Patel. He can do this by 1) Being the left-hander in the top-6; 2) Being an additional bowling option for his captain to allow Shardul to play at eight, and; 3) If not anything else, being one of two players along with SKY among the substitutes in the squad who is a decent fielder as well.
