A rainy twist of fate - Who will steal the thunder in Colombo?

As you drive from Bandaranaike International Airport toward Colombo City Centre, you're greeted by an unusual calm. Less than 20 hours away is the first Super Four clash between India and Pakistan, an event that would typically set any city abuzz, but Colombo's laidback nature would pass it off as just another cricketing event in Sri Lanka. 

Unfavorable weather predictions for Colombo over the next seven days and a complete disregard for the scheduling optics have brought us here, but if the sudden weather change on Saturday has anything to go by, we might see a slight change in the story to let the celebration at the R. Premadasa Stadium be on the full force by the traveling Indian and Pakistani fans. If not, a reserve day will push the match to Monday.

Enough has already been said about having a new set of rules only for the India-Pakistan encounter, but logically it still makes a lot of sense. It is the only game that effectively makes over 70% of the tournament broadcasting revenue. If it were to falter, hosts Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal, who individually stand to gain over 15 million USD, would bear the brunt. No wonder Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have continued to bolster a different level of support. They need the India-Pakistan game more than India or Pakistan themselves. 

Context-wise, this has a lot to offer as well. The return of Jasprit Bumrah and KL Rahul will offer the team management a chance to nail down the combination ahead of the quadrennial event in India next month. It also offers Pakistan a chance to solidify its bid as one of the best sides in the world in its current avatar. If the weather permits a full game on Sunday, we’re in for a classic.

Things to watch out for

KL Rahul's return and the Ishan question

KL Rahul has been one of India’s biggest strengths in the middle order in the last four years, and with Shreyas Iyer doing fantastically at No.4, they have somehow managed to fill the void of top three batters, who haven’t been as convincing. While India would definitely want to bring KL Rahul into the mix for the Pakistan encounter on Sunday, leaving Ishan Kishan out wouldn’t have been an easy decision.

As Gaurav explored in his analysis, the Jharkhand batter has batted everywhere India needed him in the top five in the past ten months, with considerable success. In the league game against Pakistan, when the entire top order fell like a pack of cards, Kishan was the showstopper, forging a partnership of 138 runs with Hardik Pandya, with 82 runs coming off his own blade. With four consecutive half-centuries, he presents a compelling case for selection.

However, Rahul brings a wealth of experience and vitality to the batting order, a dimension that seems lacking. Among batters with a minimum of 200 runs in ODIs since 2020, only Glenn Maxwell and Michael Bracewell have surpassed Rahul in terms of scoring at a superior strike rate in the last ten overs of the innings. Moreover, his consistency has been evident, except in 2022. The decision won't be an easy one for Rohit Sharma and Rahul Dravid, but with the World Cup approaching, they might consider this a welcome dilemma.

Can Babar change his India script?

That Babar Azam is perhaps one of the greatest ODI players of all time shouldn’t surprise any, but the Pakistan skipper, who averages 69.3 in ODIs as a skipper, hasn’t had the same level of success against India. 

His performance against India is not that good, as he has the lowest average against them among the opponents he has played in ODIs. He is yet to score a fifty-plus score against the archrivals in ODIs - a narrative he would want to change in Colombo on Sunday after scoring a classy 151 against Nepal in Multan. 

Pitch and conditions

There was not even a drop of rain in Colombo on Saturday, and the sapping humidity would make you believe that rain may not arrive here for the foreseeable future. But the Department of Meteorology - Sri Lanka has already predicted a 90% chance of precipitation in Colombo for the next week.

As far as conditions are concerned, the Saturday encounter between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh would give a pretty good discerning. Apart from Towhid Hridoy and Sadeera Samarawickrama, batters struggled to score, which is indicative of the larger story at play here, In ODIs since 2021, the average first innings score here has been around 250. 

Tactical Insights

-> Fakhar Zaman has the the lowest average against slow left-arm orthodox spinners in ODIs, averaging just 34.8 with a balls per dismissal ratio of 39.6. Unleashing Ravindra Jadeja against Zaman in the powerplay would be a good idea, especially knowing that he has struggled to score runs in the recent past, having registered no 50-plus scores in the last eight innings.

-> Shaheen Shah Afridi is a formidable force with the new ball, but he can nail yorkers in the slog overs. Since 2021, he has taken five wickets in the Powerplay with an economy of 4.3 while bagging a couple of wickets in the death overs with an economy of 4.3 in this Asia Cup 2023.

Probable XIs

Pakistan: Fakhar Zaman, Imam-ul-Haq, Babar Azam (c), Mohammad Rizwan (w), Agha Salman, Iftikhar Ahmed, Shadab Khan, Mohammad Nawaz, Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah, Haris Rauf

India: Rohit Sharma(c), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, Ishan Kishan(w), Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja, Shardul Thakur/Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj