OPINION
Follow UsThere is nothing more gut-wrenching as a franchise than seeing the hard work you did at the auction table be undone by an unexpected injury blow or a late withdrawal. A week ahead of the tournament you’re sitting there thinking that you’ve got everything sorted, but then BOOM, the loss of one personnel ends up ruining all your plans. It is what has happened this season with the likes of Kolkata Knight Riders, Chennai Super Kings and Delhi Capitals, all of whom have had to alter their tactics and move away from Plan A.
But what if, say, all of Alex Hales, Deepak Chahar and Anrich Nortje had been fit and fully available from the very beginning of the season? How would it have impacted their respective franchises? We explore the same in this article.
Kolkata Knight Riders - What if Alex Hales hadn’t pulled out?
How Hales’ withdrawal has impacted the side
At the auction, Hales was purchased by KKR as the RHB opening partner for the left-handed Venkatesh Iyer. His extremely late withdrawal, however, ended up forcing the franchise’s hand into starting with Ajinkya Rahane, the only other RHB alternative in the squad (owing to the delayed arrival of Hales’ replacement, Aaron Finch). Needless to say, the move bombed: in 5 matches, Rahane managed just 80 runs at a strike rate of 100.
Post the failed Rahane punt, the Knight Riders have tried everything on the opening front, including starting off with Sam Billings and Sunil Narine. To their dismay, nothing has clicked. Finch did show promising signs against Rajasthan, but he too has not been able to deliver consistently.
The problems up top for KKR have been compounded by Venkatesh Iyer having a nightmare of a season, averaging 16.50 and striking at 97.77.
And so 46 games into the season, no other team’s openers have fared as poorly as KKR’s.
Would having Hales have solved their opening woes?
There is good reason to think so. Or at least, going by the numbers, there is enough reason to believe that KKR would have fared so much better with Hales in the starting XI.
Across the last 3 years, Hales has arguably been the best opener in T20 cricket, having amassed close to 4,000 runs at an average of 34.82 and a SR of 153.5.
But more than the raw numbers, it’s the package that Hales brings that would have really benefited the Knight Riders.
For starters, Hales is one of the best powerplay bashers in the world. Since 2019, among openers with 1000 or more runs in the powerplay, only Finn Allen (190.7) and Rahmanullah Gurbaz (159.4) have maintained a better SR in the first six than Hales (159.2).
His proficiency in the powerplay alone would have bolstered KKR, who so far in IPL 2022 have boasted the worst average and the third-worst strike rate in the first six.
More importantly, had Hales been available, KKR would have had at their disposal a batter that is exceptional against pace. Since 2019, Hales has averaged 42.14 against the pacers while striking at nearly 160. In contrast, KKR batters in IPL 2022 have averaged a shocking 24.6 against the quicker bowlers. Staggeringly, this number is even lower for the Top 4 batters (average 23.2).
It goes without saying that Hales providing brisk starts up front would have made life far easier for the middle-order, who so far have walked in to bat under tremendous pressure, game after game.
Would Hales’ presence have upset the team combination?
It wouldn’t have. Sam Billings started the season for KKR as a specialist batter, so Hales would merely have taken his Sydney Thunder teammate’s spot in the starting lineup. The Knight Riders would still have been able to field all of Narine, Russell and Cummins/Southee.
Chennai Super Kings - what if Deepak Chahar hadn’t got injured?
How Chahar’s injury has impacted the side
If there’s one person CSK wouldn’t have wanted to lose ahead of the season, it would have been Deepak Chahar. Because they put all their eggs in one basket by paying INR 14 crore for Chahar, and had so much faith in him to deliver. The Super Kings didn’t even purchase any other capped Indian pacer at the auction.
All their plans had to be thrown out of the window the moment news emerged that Chahar was going to be unavailable for the whole season.
It is bad enough that CSK ended up missing a bowler of Chahar’s caliber. He’s right up there when it comes to the best strike bowlers in the league, and few can make the new ball talk like he does.
In his absence, the seam attack struggled. The Super Kings lost each of their first four matches and, in that, their pacers averaged 31.5 while conceding at 9.2 runs per over. In the powerplay, the average shot up to 86; across the first 4 matches, the CSK seamers took just 2 powerplay wickets.
But worse, Chahar’s injury ended up upsetting the entire team combination.
Lack of Indian alternatives forced CSK to play two (sometimes three) overseas pacers, owing to which Devon Conway had to be forced out of the side. The Kiwi batter returned against SRH on Sunday but had to sit out 7 of the first 9 matches. Essentially, CSK were forced to sacrifice a run-accumulator to make up for Chahar’s absence.
How having Chahar would have changed the dynamics of the side
There is no guarantee that CSK would have been in contention for Top 4 had Chahar been fit. But the 29-year-old’s presence would certainly have changed the entire dynamic of the side.
CSK would, first things first, have had a talisman up-front with the ball, something they’ve lacked all season. Chahar might have helped them set the tone with the ball up-front by hurting teams inside the powerplay.
But the right-armer’s presence would also have enabled the Super Kings to play Conway throughout the season. Robin Uthappa might be doing a fine job as an aggressor, but with Ruturaj Gaikwad going through indifferent form, the team has lacked a heavy run-accumulator capable of doing the role Faf du Plessis did across the past few seasons. Chahar’s presence would have enabled CSK to get rid of one of the overseas seamers and bolster the batting by adding Conway.
For all we know, that could have been a game-changer.
Delhi Capitals - what if Anrich Nortje started the season fully fit?
How Nortje’s absence has impacted Delhi
So much of Delhi’s success in both IPL 2020 and IPL 2021 was down to them ravaging sides by deploying two overseas seamers in the form of Anrich Nortje and Kagiso Rabada. The Capitals were not able to buy Rabada at the auction, but the franchise was, nevertheless, confident of still carrying a formidable pace attack by pairing Mustafizur Rahman with Nortje.
Nortje’s injury forced DC to move away from the ‘two overseas seamers’ strategy and that significantly weakened their attack due to the lack of like-for-like alternatives.
Interestingly, however, the phase where Delhi have suffered the most has been the powerplay. Kuldeep Yadav’s renaissance has helped DC maintain their potency in the middle overs, but they’ve been toothless up front. After 9 games, they’ve taken the joint-lowest wickets in the powerplay and have had the second-worst bowling average.
No seamer has managed to take more than 3 wickets in the powerplay this season for DC, and the biggest disappointment of all has been their most expensive purchase, Shardul Thakur, who has taken 2 wickets in 9 innings at an ER of 8.7 (in the first six overs).
This is relevant because Nortje was a gun up-front for DC in each of the last two seasons. Across IPL 2020 and IPL 2021, the South African picked 12 wickets in the powerplay at an ER of 7.3, striking once every 21 balls.
In the absence of Nortje, DC’s attack has also lacked dynamism. Currently, there are no express pace bowlers in the DC line-up that can serve as an enforcer.
What would Nortje’s presence have done to Delhi?
Nortje’s presence (a fully fit Nortje, mind you) would undoubtedly have changed the look of DC’s attack. It would have enabled Pant to use Mustafizur more defensively and also deploy Shardul Thakur more towards the middle-overs and back-end, where his variations are generally more effective. The Capitals would have had more firepower with the ball, and also have had an express pace weapon which would have been useful against certain teams and batters.
However, the flip side is that DC fielding both Nortje and Mustafizur would have meant them having to leave out one of Mitchell Marsh or Rovman Powell.
The absence of Nortje has enabled DC to field 3 overseas batters + Mustafizur, but they would have had a selection headache had the South African been fully fit. Fielding both Nortje and Mustafizur would have strengthened the bowling but would, at the same time, have taken significant firepower away from the bat. On the other hand, having Warner, Marsh, Powell and Nortje as the four overseas players might have left them wanting a bit with the ball.
Lucknow and Gujarat fortunate enough to not be crippled by major absentees
The two new franchises, Lucknow and Gujarat, too, were dealt with big blows thanks to Mark Wood getting injured and Jason Roy withdrawing. But the two sides have been completely unaffected by the absence of the two English players.
For Lucknow, Wood’s replacement (Dushmantha Chameera) has done an exceptional job filling-in, while Gujarat have managed to strike a nice team balance in the absence of Roy. Not having an overseas opener has enabled Titans to open with Saha and play an extra foreign seamer. Had Roy been fit, GT might have been forced to either play Saha in the middle-order, or drop David Miller and deploy Matthew Wade as a finisher.
