Cricket in focus again as India aim to materialize their favorites tag

A lot of water has flown under the bridge on India’s current trip to South Africa. An unceremonious captaincy snub, one person taking a dig at another, dressing room conversations blowing out of proportions, a star player publicly taking a stance against the board.

All this without any actual cricket, without a single ball bowled in the series as yet. Without any focus on why this is India’s best chance to win a Test series in South Africa, which remains to be the only missing piece in India’s Test history.

Off-field stuff aside, it is time for cricket to take over. It kicks off with the Boxing Day Test in Centurion. 

What makes this India’s best chance

With a majority of the squad similar to the team that traveled in 2018, India go into this series as favourites. The reasons are twofold. Firstly, it is the lack of experience in the South Africa side that is without AB de Villiers, Faf du Plessis, Hashim Amla, Vernon Philander, Dale Steyn, and Morne Morkel. While they have filled the void in the bowling department with their deep resources of Test cricket-ready fast bowlers, the batting leaves a lot to be desired.

It aligns with the characteristics in which they have taken a massive stride - fast bowling. The first Test of the 2018 series between the two nations was when Jasprit Bumrah arrived in the Test arena and India’s pace department has gone from strength to strength. Since 2018, Indian pacers have had the best bowling average in Test cricket. Ravichandran Ashwin’s presence completes the attack.

India’s bowling artillery is as sharp as it has ever been. The fact that South Africa comes next makes this contest spicier. However, they will be missing Anrich Nortje which affects their bowling depth. Probably for the first time, the Proteas seem a little blunt on the fast bowling resources when compared to their counterparts. 

Dodgy batting on both sides

As said above, the inexperience in the batting haunts South Africa the most. 2018 onwards, their batting average in Test cricket has only been better than the lower-ranked sides - Ireland, West Indies, Afghanistan, and Zimbabwe. 

With South Africa, a collapse is always around the corner. The Indian bowlers feed on any sliver of a chance in their eyesight. That is what staged their famous Test victories in London this year. In the second innings at Lord’s, India struck multiple times when England’s score read 1, 67, 90, and 120. 

Having said that, if India have any chinks in their armour, it is in their batting department. A top view suggests India averaged 30.4 with the bat since 2018, the third-best among Test-playing nations. But the visitors are also in a predicament regarding a few of their seniors. Ajinkya Rahane and Cheteshwar Pujara are under the firing line while Virat Kohli has not been at his best for some time now. Rohit Sharma’s loss in such a scenario can come as a hammer blow.

In a country where the seamers pick a wicket every 49.5 deliveries - the best for a host nation since 2018, the series presents a cathartic display of pace bowling against two dodgy batting line-ups.

An opportunity for India

Australia has bounce, England has swing. What makes batsmen most vulnerable in South Africa is a combination of both these factors. However, the likes of Rabada, Olivier and Ngidi, have a tendency to push the batsmen back. Their natural lengths are on the shorter side of the good length or further back. Back foot play thus becomes necessary for overseas batsmen.

This is where the South African safari may suit India. KL Rahul, Rahane, Kohli, and Pujara all have better numbers on the back foot. 

It also manifests a role for Pujara, despite the lowest average on the back foot in the above data table. He doesn’t pull the ball like others. But he also doesn’t throw away his wicket. Rather, he is happy to take those balls on his body. That was his success mantra in Australia where he played a massive role despite averaging 33.9. 

“You can punch me as long as you can. Then I will punch back. That is my game plan”, said Pujara in an interview to ESPNCricinfo after the victorious tour of Australia earlier this year. 

The method doesn’t work in England since most deliveries are pitched up. In South Africa, there lies an opportunity to make a difference. It will be painful but Pujara can endure it.  

Probable XIs

Nortje will be missed but the hosts can still play four seamers including the all-rounder Wiann Mulder. From their last Test, Temba Bavuma is likely to replace Kyle Verreyenne. 

Dean Elgar (c), Aiden Markram, Keegan Petersen, Rassie van der Dussen, Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock (wk), Wiaan Mulder, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi, Duanne Olivier

India have a few selection calls to make including their balance. Knowing Kohli, India may opt for five bowlers. Shardul Thakur should get the nod owing to his batting prowess. It leaves a spot for only one among Ishant Sharma and Mohammad Siraj. In a similar scenario, there are three options for number five. 

KL Rahul, Mayank Agarwal, Cheteshwar Pujara, Virat Kohli (c), Ajinkya Rahane/Shreyas Iyer/Hanuma Vihari, Rishabh Pant (wk), R Ashwin, Shardul Thakur, Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj/Ishant Sharma