TACTICAL PREVIEW
Follow UsAustralia have found their mojo and England have not. No, we are not talking about a Down Under Ashes series but the ongoing 50-over World Cup. Four wins in a row have put Australia third on the points table. England, on the contrary, have flunked four consecutive games and are placed last.
Other results have not gone their way either and Afghanistan’s win over the Netherlands has confirmed the defending champions will bow out of the tournament in an embarrassing exit. However, the 2025 Champions Trophy qualification is still on line. England need to lift themselves off the bottom spot and get in the top eight at least. Little did we imagine that the second arch-rival clash of the tournament would have such distinct motives for the two sides.
For Australia, their eyes are still on the bigger prize - taking another step closer to sealing a spot in the semi-finals. They will miss two crucial players, Glenn Maxwell and Mitchell Marsh. The latter has returned home due to personal reasons.
Yet, the Aussie will start as favorites from the form and points table’s perspective. But England can turn up anytime, putting the onus on Australia to turn up with their A game.
Things to watch out for
The Maxwell-sized void in Australia’s XI
In his second freak injury of the year, Glenn Maxwell fell off the golf cart a few days ago and has been ruled out of this fixture due to concussion. It is a double blow for Australia. In a middle-order that has blown hot and cold, Maxwell was finding his touch, having scored 147 runs off 68 balls in the last two games against the Netherlands and New Zealand.
Moreover, his absence means Australia won’t have a second spinner. Thus, the five-time champions relied heavily on Maxwell to do a two-man job. And he was doing it fairly well.
The 35-year old had picked only four wickets in six games but conceded at only 4.8 runs per over. It is in stark contrast with Adam Zampa’s average of 19.1 which came at a cost of going at 6.2 runs per over. Maxwell's presence allowed Zampa to go for wickets. Without him, we may see Zampa in a more defensive role.
At a venue like Ahmedabad which has offered grip to spin bowlers during the daytime, Maxwell’s fall off the buggy can cost them big time if England find their long-lost rhythm with the bat. It will be interesting to see if Australia try to fill that gap with Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne.
With the bat, the two options to come in for Maxwell are Marcus Stoinis and Alex Carey. The duo averages 18.8 and 20.6 in ODIs this year. Clearly, the all-rounder is a big void that can make the Aussie pay a heavy price.
Can Ahmedabad lift England's batting fortunes?
England’s batting fortunes have fallen from grace in this World Cup. They have been bowled out under 35 overs in their last four innings. They have lost four wickets within the first powerplay twice in the last three games. The Three Lions’ top seven average 23 in this competition, the second lowest.
In the previous game, each of their top four players was out early, playing reckless strokes against a rampant Indian attack, showing no sense of absorbing the pressure. Recovering from those horror memories of Lucknow after a week’s break will be critical to their chances against Australia.
The experience of playing in Ahmedabad earlier in the World Cup can come in handy. They will know the pitch can be tacky during the day and easier to bat on under lights.
In Ahmedabad, the batters have averaged a hefty 65 in the first 10 overs. If the England batters stand up, it could be a struggle for the Australian pacers who have gone wicketless thrice in the first powerplay in six matches this World Cup.
Ground Details and Conditions
The Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad hosted two games in the first two weeks of the tournament before going on snooze mode. Both games were comfortably won by the side batting second, clearly indicating that batting gets easier once the floodlights take effect.
The ball has not swung here but the spinners have found grip in the first innings, going at an economy of only 4.7 while picking nine wickets. Under lights in the second innings, they have been wicketless, leaking 6.6 runs per over.
Hence, the team that wins the toss would want to bowl first.
Tactical Insights
> The England seamers are versed in pitching the ball full but it is pulling the length back that works against Travis Head. The left-handed opener has been troubled by the short-pitched deliveries this year irrespective of the format. Against New Zealand, where Head scored a sublime 109, he had the highest false shot percentage against back-of-a-length deliveries - 42.8%.
It won’t be a bad idea to start with Mark Wood to target Head. Otherwise, Chris Woakes and David Willey will have to change their modus operandi.
> In a shocking stat, Joe Root averages only 4.6 in the first 10 overs of ODIs since the last 50-over World Cup, being dismissed 11 times. The pacers have picked him on nine of these occasions. Six times he is out to deliveries coming in to him, with the average being only 4.3.
If the ball doesn’t move in the air, the Aussie seamers would try seaming the ball towards Root to catch him leg before wicket, as Jasprit Bumrah did in Lucknow.
> All of Jos Buttler’s four dismissals versus pace this tournament have come off deliveries pitched in and around the good length area. Three of them have been on the testing line outside the off stump. The Aussie seamers would try to replicate that.
Probable XIs
Australia
Maxwell and Marsh are out of this fixture, leaving Australia with only 13 players to pick from. Cameron Green is the front-runner to walk in as one of the replacement players. If fit, Marcus Stoinis should come in to fill the other spot. Otherwise, Alex Carey could return in a non-wicketkeeping role.
David Warner, Travis Head, Steve Smith, Marnus Labuschagne, Josh Inglis (wk), Marcus Stoinis, Cameron Green, Pat Cummins ( c ), Mitchell Starc, Adam Zampa, Josh Hazlewood
England
The defending champions may want to give Harry Brook another look in the XI. If he comes in, one of Liam Livingstone and Moeen Ali may have to make way.
Jonny Bairstow, Dawid Malan, Joe Root, Ben Stokes, Harry Brook, Jos Buttler (c/wk), Liam Livingstone/Moeen Ali, Chris Woakes, David Willey, Adil Rashid, Mark Wood
