ANALYSIS
Follow UsNote: All statistics in the article are as of September 23, 2023
India
Shubman Gill, Rohit Sharma & Virat Kohli
Form index: Outstanding. So far in 2023, all three batters have averaged over 45 and have struck at over 100. Gill (avg 70.38 / SR 104.8) is in the midst of a historic, record-breaking year.
What sets them apart?
> As a trio, Gill, Rohit and Kohli simultaneously have an extremely high ceiling and a very high floor, which is an absolute rarity. It is what makes them gold.
> All three batters’ games are tailor-made for ODI cricket. They are run-machines with water-tight techniques who have a wide array of strokes. As a result they punish opponents on both flat tracks and tricky surfaces.
> All three of Gill, Rohit and Kohli are experts at pacing the innings and are master-manipulators of the field. They’re the most unique top three because every single individual is capable of scoring daddy hundreds.
> Gill-Rohit are a very dynamic opening pair. Both players possess multiple gears, are capable of taking down both spin & pace and are adept at playing the situation.
> Gill might be playing his first World Cup but, as a trio, India have a top three which possesses experience that’s second to none.
What are the downsides?
> The biggest (and arguably the only) downside of India’s top-three is the right-handedness. There’s always the chance of them getting bogged down by a quality leggie or a left-arm spinner (or both), or getting blown away by an on-song left-arm pacer.
Case in point, this year, Gill, Rohit and Kohli are averaging 35, 12.33 and 22 respectively vs left-arm seamers (total of 8 dismissals). Kohli is averaging 11.5 vs left-arm spinners (SR 61.3). The Super Four clash vs Sri Lanka showed the downside of having a RHB-heavy top-three.
Australia
David Warner, Mitchell Marsh & Steve Smith
Form index: Good. Smith hasn’t played a lot of white-ball cricket this year but both Marsh and Warner have averaged over 40 and have struck at over 110 (123.9 in Marsh’s case).
What sets them apart?
> A scary-looking opening pair that ticks a lot of boxes.
LHB-RHB combo ✔️
Two powerplay beasts ✔️
Pace destroyer (Marsh) 🤝 Pace & spin destroyer (Warner)
Plenty of experience batting in Indian conditions ✔️
> Smith at No.3 is the perfect foil for both batters. Can build long stands if batting with Warner; can act as the perfect second fiddle if batting with Marsh. Both Marsh & Warner’s pace also allows Smith to bat himself into the game patiently.
> Smith at No.3 will help stabilize the innings even if an early wicket falls. Case in point the first ODI against India in Mohali.
> In Smith, Australia also have an ideal batter to get ‘dirty runs’ on sluggish surfaces.
What are the downsides?
> An extremely high-variance opening pair with a very low floor, polar opposite to that of India.
> Marsh, despite his strong start, is very inexperienced as an opener, having opened just 6 times to date. Together, Marsh & Warner have opened the batting just thrice. The jury is still out on their understanding as an opening pair.
> Marsh’s high dot percentage could prove to be an issue. Certainly outside the powerplay but also inside the powerplay in testing conditions, where strike rotation will be key to disrupting bowlers’ rhythm. Being starved of strike (at times) could also potentially disrupt Warner’s flow with the bat.
> Converting starts to big tons could prove to be a huge issue. Marsh’s only ton came back in 2016, while in his last 5 tons, Warner has crossed 125 just once. Smith, meanwhile, has posted only one score over 110 since the start of 2017 (131 vs India in Bengaluru 2020).
> The hit-and-miss nature of Marsh, and Warner’s mixed returns could end up putting a lot of pressure on Smith to deliver game after game.
England
Jonny Bairstow, Dawid Malan & Joe Root
Form index: Very poor outside of Malan, who is having an outstanding year (avg 73.88 / SR 96.6). Since the start of 2022, Bairstow and Root are averaging 19.38 and 15.22 respectively.
What sets them apart?
> In a way, on paper, England’s top three combines the best of both India and Australia — LHB/RHB opening pair, aggression, plenty of experience, high floor and high ceiling, reliable run accumulators, ability to take down both pace and spin. The ideal top three one could ask for.
> Bairstow & Root have terrific records in India — Bairstow averages 73.00 as an opener in India and Root averages 59.00 in India overall. While Bairstow has plenty of experience in Indian conditions thanks to the IPL, Root’s strike rotation coupled with his proficiency against spinners makes him a mouth-watering No.3 candidate.
> Malan, meanwhile, averages 63.66 in 5 ODIs in Asia and showcased his class six months ago against Bangladesh in Mirpur, single-handedly dragging England over the line on a minefield, scoring 114* chasing 212.
> All three batters are master sweepers of the ball; this enables them to not just be aggressive against favorable match-ups but also tackle negative match-ups. It’s also a ‘getaway’ shot that helps them avoid getting bogged down.
> Adding to the previous point, all three batters are elite strike-rotators who boast extremely low dot percentages.
What are the downsides?
> No matter how enticing and perfect a top three of Bairstow, Malan and Root might look, form cannot be brushed under the carpet. Root & Bairstow will go into the World Cup with pretty much no runs under their belt.
> Rust and lack of ODI cricket is also a concern. Since the start of 2022, Root and Bairstow have combinedly batted just 17 times in ODIs. For reference, the subsequent figure for Warner is 20 and Gill is 31.
> Malan and Bairstow have batted together just thrice in ODIs. Roy and Bairstow were a formidable pair not just because of their individual quality, but also because of their chemistry. Malan and Bairstow will have to understand each other on the job.
> It is also to be noted that a slight downside of this opening partnership is that Bairstow will always have to be the aggressor / enforcer. In his ODI career so far, Malan’s powerplay strike rate is 79.2, which is 23 fewer than Bairstow’s 102.9.
South Africa
Quinton de Kock, Temba Bavuma & Rassie van der Dussen
Form index: Poor outside of Bavuma, who is averaging 79.63 and is striking at 104.1 in 2023. De Kock and Van der Dussen are both averaging under 35 this year. 2023 has by some distance been RVD’s worst year in ODIs (31.73 avg, 84.9 SR).
What sets them apart?
> South Africa don’t have a top three that will put the fear of god in bowlers but they have a very tidy, reliable top-order. Three very interesting, different profiles (De Kock: high variance but game-changer; Bavuma: reliable and ultra-consistent across conditions; RVD: run-machine that frustrates the opposition and sets up the game for the middle-order).
> This is a top three that’s super secure and not prone to collapses. At all. This year, South Africa’s balls-per-wicket ratio in overs 1-10 (65.5) is the best amongst all sides. In 12 ODIs, they’ve lost more than 1 wicket in overs 1-10 just twice, and have never lost three or more wickets inside the powerplay.
> De Kock has a sublime record in India: 8 matches, 377 runs, avg 47.12, SR 98.95, 2 centuries.
> The versatility and firepower of South Africa’s middle-order provides the top-order with an invisible cushion. Due to the x-factor possessed by the middle-order, Bavuma, de Kock and RVD know that all they have to do is stabilize and ‘set up’ the innings for numbers four to seven.
What are the downsides?
> Bavuma’s purple patch in ODIs might just currently be papering over cracks. This year, de Kock is averaging 16.8 outside the powerplay. Van der Dussen, meanwhile, has had a horrific year across formats and levels: in 2023, he’s averaging 26.13 in all T20s and 31.73 in ODIs with just one fifty-plus score in his last 10 innings.
The pair have batted together four times and, in that, have averaged 26.8 while striking at 66.9. Bavuma perishing early will hence spell trouble for South Africa if both QDK and RVD don’t rediscover their form quickly.
> Adding to the previous point, de Kock has a dot percentage of 63.1% in the powerplay this year, while van der Dussen’s dot percentage is even worse: 70.9%. De Kock, uncharacteristically enough, has had three knocks where he’s batted 18+ balls inside the powerplay and has scored at a SR under 45.00.
All the more reason why the Proteas can’t afford to lose Bavuma early (on current form).
> South Africa have an LHB-RHB opening pair but still have one batter who is a walking wicket against off-spin and another that does not attack the offies. De Kock is averaging 12 against off-spinners this year, while Bavuma, in his ODI career, has a SR of 82.1 against the offies (75.00 this year). There’s a big weakness there to be exploited.
Pakistan
Imam-ul-Haq, Fakhar Zaman / Abdullah Shafique & Babar Azam
Form index: Bad. Imam and Fakhar had forgettable Asia Cups (avg 30 & 16.25 respectively), as did Babar, outside the Nepal match.
What sets them apart?
> When on song, one of the most frustrating batting units to bowl to. Imam and Babar pile on the runs at a healthy pace without giving the bowlers a sniff, while Fakhar takes the attack to the opposition, constantly putting them under pressure. Together, the trio inflict a slow death upon the opposition.
> Another top-order that has a very high floor. Collapses are very rare: in 2023, Pakistan’s balls-per-wkt ratio of 58.1 at the halfway stage (25 overs) is the best among all teams. In more than half the ODIs they’ve played this year, Pakistan have lost 2 wickets or fewer at the halfway mark of their batting innings.
> The top three has two batters that score hundreds for fun (Imam and Babar, 28 hundreds between them in 170 innings) and one that goes berserk whenever he converts. Fakhar has three 180+ scores to his name; his last ODI ton was a 180* against New Zealand back in April. When Pakistan’s top-order decides to cash in, they cash in big time.
> The top-order is built to thrive in moderate-scoring matches / sluggish conditions.
What are the downsides?
> Form is a huge concern. Since July, Fakhar is averaging 17.71 and was dropped mid-way through the Asia Cup before hastily getting recalled due to injury. Imam is averaging 42.83 but has been striking at under 75. Babar, meanwhile, had an underwhelming Asia Cup outside the Nepal game.
> Pakistan’s top-order have been atrociously slow in the powerplay this year, scoring at 4.6 RPO in the first 10. Among all the WC teams, only Afghanistan (4 RPO) have batted slower up-front. This year, Fakhar, Imam and Babar’s powerplay strike rates read 78.13, 72.27 and 58.21 respectively.
The top-order (outside Fakhar’s good days) simply does not utilize the field restrictions, nor does it put opposition bowlers under pressure.
> Can’t attack spin — this year, Pakistan’s top three’s SR of 83.7 against spin is the worst among all sides. The top three are solid against spin (average of 51.1) but do not have the range to consistently hammer the slower bowlers.
Against off-spin this year, Fakhar, Imam and Babar have combinedly faced 447 balls and have scored just 319 runs. Considering there’ll be two lefties up top (unless Fakhar is replaced by Shafique), teams will definitely exploit this weakness.
> Imam’s one-dimensionality will be a big problem in high-scoring games and big chases. The left-hander does not have a strike rate over 100 in any phase and has hit less than 0.50 sixes per innings in his ODI career. He does not have the capability to shift gears, meaning Pakistan will have to rely on other ‘big-hitters’ in high scoring matches, even if Imam is set and batting.
> All of Imam, Babar and Fakhar have no prior experience batting in an ODI in India.
New Zealand
Devon Conway, Will Young, Kane Williamson
Form index: Mixed. Young has just had a very good Bangladesh series but averaged 24.50 in the England ODIs. Conway, after scoring 111* in Cardiff, finished the England series with scores of 14, 9 & 7. Williamson, meanwhile, hasn’t batted since March.
What works in their favour?
> A rock-solid top-order with a very high floor that can be relied upon. Ideal for low / average scoring encounters and also surfaces in which there’s something for the bowlers.
> Two outstanding players of spin in Conway & Williamson. Average versus spin in ODIs: Conway 92 & Williamson 49.32. The chances of the opposition bamboozling New Zealand with spin up-front, even on a dry wicket, are very, very slim.
> Expect not just solidity from this top three but also consistency. Conway & Williamson’s track record speaks for itself but Will Young is averaging 43 in his young ODI career (no pun intended). This year, he’s passed the 30-run mark in 50% of his knocks and will enter the World Cup having posted consecutive fifties in two really challenging tracks in Mirpur.
> Conway & Williamson both have ample experience playing in the subcontinent (IPL and internationals) while 36% of Young’s ODIs have come in Asia. Young has also played two Tests in India.
What are the downsides?
> Not too dissimilar to Pakistan in the sense that you have three batters of similar profiles. In the absence of Finn Allen, the opening partnership does not possess an x-factor player that can really punish the opposition bowlers up-front if they have a bad day. More often than not, you’ll end up seeing 40-ish scores in the powerplay, even on pretty good batting tracks.
> Will Young is untested / has not proven himself against strong opposition. Nearly 30% of Young’s ODI runs have come against Netherlands (both his tons have also come against the Dutch). He’s also averaging just 31.33 away from home, as compared to 87.00 in New Zealand.
> Kane Williamson is coming on the back of a major injury — there’s no guarantee he’ll perform at an optimum level. Considering both this and Young’s inexperience, there’ll be plenty of pressure on Conway to perform. The top-order could potentially crumble if Conway ends up having a forgettable World Cup.
> Lastly, it is worth noting that Conway & Young have opened the batting together just thrice.
Sri Lanka
Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Perera / Dimuth Karunaratne & Kusal Mendis
Form index: Pretty poor outside Kusal Mendis, who is in the midst of a purple patch of sorts. Even the ever-reliable Nissanka averaged just 22.00 in the Asia Cup.
What works in their favour?
> Sri Lanka’s top-three consists of two right-handers who are sublime against spin. Both batters are averaging 40+ against off-spin, leg-spin and left-arm spin since the start of 2022.
> Both Mendis and Nissanka are leg-spin destroyers. Average and strike rate versus leg-spin since the start of 2022: Nissanka 64.5 / 111.2 and Mendis 158/117.
> Nissanka had a poor Asia Cup but he has it in him to be ultra consistent. In a 24-inning period between Jan 2022 and July 2023, he averaged 55.00, passing the 50-run mark 50% of the time.
> Mendis, on the other hand, is someone who can take the game away once he shrugs off early nerves. Case in point, Mendis’ SR in balls 1-20 since Jan 2022: 66.09. Mendis SR after the 20th ball in the same period: 101.2. Mendis is a batter who, when he’s in the zone, is unstoppable. And luckily for Sri Lanka, he’s hit a good run of form, his last 5 scores reading 17, 91, 15, 50, 92.
> Kusal Perera, on his day, has the ability to dent the opposition up-front, if not take the game away from them.
What are the downsides?
> The entire top-order is very susceptible to high quality pace. There’s always the risk of them getting blown away early when there’s help for the seamers, which is what happened in the Asia Cup Final. This issue also nearly cost them the game against both Netherlands and Scotland in the World Cup qualifiers.
> There’s uncertainty over Nissanka’s opening partner and neither Karunaratne nor Perera are ideal candidates. While Karunaratne’s limited range (and lack of gears) makes him a very one-dimensional player, Perera is extremely hit and miss.
> It’s a top-order that starts very slow up-front. In 2023, Sri Lanka’s run rate in the powerplay is just 4.8. The thing about Mendis being a nervous starter? Yeah, that’s hurting the side big time. The 28-year-old’s strike rate in overs 1-10 this year is 49.80, i.e. he’s faced 205 balls and has scored 102 runs.
Afghanistan
Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Ibrahim Zadran, Rahmat Shah
Form index: Very good for Zadran (avg 47.8 this year), okay-ish for Gurbaz (34.18) and poor for Shah (20.67).
What works in their favour?
> A solid opening pair that compliments each other very well. Gurbaz and Zadran have enough experience batting together (17 times) and have done pretty well, averaging 45.4.
> Gurbaz is someone that can play ‘magic knocks’ that can take the game away from the opposition. And he bats long when he gets his eye in. In the last 3 months alone, he has a 145 against Bangladesh and a 151 against a strong Pakistan attack that included Shaheen, Naseem, Haris Rauf and Shadab Khan.
> Zadran, meanwhile, is a run-machine. In his ODI career, he’s scored 911 runs at an average of 53.58, with 8 fifty-plus scores in 19 innings. In an eight-match period between November 2022 and July 2023, the 21-year-old amassed 593 runs with 3 centuries and 2 fifties. If he gets into the zone, you can’t stop him from scoring runs.
> Gurbaz, as he’s shown in the shortest format, can take down seamers up-front. The destructiveness has not quite translated into ODIs yet, but a powerplay SR of 146.5 against pace (in T20s) suggests there’s a player there who can do serious damage on his day.
> Zadran, on the other hand, is close to invincible against spin. In his ODI career, the right-hander averages 126.33 against spinners, having been dismissed just thrice in 415 balls. The strike rate (91.33) is excellent too. There’s no concept of ‘bad match-up’ either as against leggies and left-arm spinners, he’s scored 183 runs while getting dismissed just once.
What are the downsides?
> As a top three, Gurbaz, Zadran and Shah are, more often than not, painfully slow. Zadran and Shah strike at under 85 with Shah’s SR reading an eye-watering 70.65. Unsurprisingly, in ODIs this year, Afghanistan’s run rate of 4.00 in the powerplay (1-10) is the worst among all sides. You post an above-par score against Afghanistan batting first, your job is done; they are unlikely to chase it down.
> Gurbaz is extremely hit and miss; more miss than hit. Essentially, when he’s bad, he’s really, really bad. In his ODI career, the right-hander only has three scores between 20 and 49, getting dismissed 16 times under 20. And in knocks in which he does not pass 50, Gurbaz’s SR is 57.58.
> Zadran’s yet to consistently face world-class pace in his ODI career. Even then, he’s averaging only 38.00 vs pace. The number could come down drastically if he comes up against quality seam up front, which he will, in the World Cup.
> Apart from a crisis situation or in case of the team playing in a really low-scoring encounter, Rahmat Shah is unlikely to impact matches due to how slow he bats.
Bangladesh
Litton Das, Tanzid Hasan, Najmul Shanto
Form Index: Shanto (avg 49.86 in 2023) is in the form of his life but Litton (24.14) and Tanzid (8.5) will both enter the World Cup with no runs under their belt
As much as Najmul Shanto’s form at No.3 is a huge blessing — scores of 76, 104 & 89 in his last three innings — the bitter truth for Bangladesh is that it’s the only positive for them heading into the World Cup, from a top-order perspective.
After a breakthrough 2022 — 577 runs @ 52.45 — big things were expected from the bat of Liton Das this year but he’s posted three fifty-plus scores all year. This year, he’s averaging 15.11 against teams that will be playing in the upcoming World Cup. He has it in him to play the odd whirlwind knock but the right-hander is far too hit and miss.
He’s going to be partnered by 22-year-old Tanzid, who thus far in his young international career has struggled immeasurably, not passing 20 even once in 4 innings. For Tanzid, the challenge is about to get only tougher.
So in a way, there’s far too much hinging on Shanto, whose purple patch could end anytime soon.
With Tamim being phased out, things are really messy up top for the Tigers, heading into the World Cup.
Netherlands
Max O’Dowd, Vikramjit Singh & Wesley Barresi
Form Index: Good for O’Dowd (avg 38.69 in 2023), slightly below average for Vikramjit (33.92) and concerning for Barresi (23.73)
Netherlands have a very dynamic top three: an RHB-LHB opening pair in which one batter (O’Dowd) is consistent and bats long. They then have a very experienced No.3 in Barresi who has almost turned into a counter-puncher this year, highlighted by his calendar year SR of 93.21, which is fifteen more than his career strike rate.
The biggest challenge for the trio will be making the step up to the very highest level. The attacks they will be up against in this World Cup will be significantly superior to what they’ve faced in their careers so far.
Neither of them have played 20+ matches overall against teams participating in this World Cup. And against the remaining teams playing in this World Cup, O’Dowd, Vikramjit and Barresi average 18.77, 23 & 28.31.
In every sense, a monumental challenge lies ahead for the trio and Netherlands as a batting unit, overall.
