India look at semi-finals to erase dreaded 2019 memories

Indians fans don’t like New Zealand anymore. It’s sort of okay for them to support the “nice guys” when India are not involved, but in an ICC event, they turn out to be India’s biggest nemesis. Billions of prayers squandered and all hopes broken - it has always been New Zealand coming at them with all force. Forget the 2021 World Test Championship loss; many fans are already reeling for the 2019 World Cup final. 

However, with less than 24 hours to go for the first semi-final between India and New Zealand in Mumbai, we are at a juncture in Indian cricket where history could be rewritten. India have never been more dominant in a World Cup and will be attempting to break their semi-final duck by getting the better of New Zealand, who have made it to the last two finals. The set-up couldn’t have been more poignant.

The journey in the ongoing World Cup has largely been different for both sides. India have been lucky in having most of their first-choice players, barring Hardik Pandya, at their disposal, with all of them breathing fire. Meanwhile, New Zealand haven’t had the certainty they would have liked. They were even down to a situation where only 11 players were available for selection. Things have progressed since, with Kane Williamson and Tim Southee deeming fit, but the absence of Matt Henry has been telling on New Zealand’s fortunes.

Barring those fleeting moments in the opening match against Australia in Chennai, India haven’t dropped their ball for nine straight games. Every team that came their way had been rolled over, including New Zealand in Dharamsala, but knockouts always promise a fresh start. It is where India have often found wanting - and truth be told, they can’t afford to have any more slip up in order to stay away from the dreaded C-word in sport. 

Even though India don’t really have a great ODI record at the Wankhede Stadium, somehow, the venue always brings back happy memories. It is where India scripted their greatest moment in history 12 years ago - and they will wish for a glide on Wednesday.

Things to watch out for

India’s batting in the first 10 overs 

India have been the most dominant powerplay side in the first 10 overs of the innings, having a run-rate of 6.7 runs per over. It has majorly been possible thanks to Rohit Sharma’s inhibition-less batting as well as a clearer understanding of the assurance they have from their middle-order batters. However, in this match, things could actually flip. 

No, I am not telling you this because India have a history against New Zealand pacers in the powerplay, but because of how the Wankhede surface has been. While batting first has never been a concern here, in case India are pushed to chase in Mumbai, all hell may break loose. 

Under the lights, the quicks have been unplayable at Wankhede, averaging 9.2 runs per dismissal and picking a wicket every 13.4 balls. With New Zealand having Trent Boult at their disposal, someone who has always been a nemesis for India, things could turn out to be bitter for the home side.

Taming Mitchell would be India’s primary focus

After Rachin Ravindra, it is Daryl Mitchell who has been the most consistent batter for New Zealand this World Cup. Not only has he been scoring at a pace hitherto unheard of, he is averaging 59.7. That tells you how big a role he will play in Mumbai - a venue where, if allowed to bat first, he could actually alter the dynamics single-handedly.

In Dharamsala, he was the stand-out performer against India - especially against an impressive Kuldeep Yadav, to whom he regularly stepped out. With Mitchell averaging over 50 against both pacers and spinners, India need to be sure about their strategy beforehand. One of them could be to bowl off-cutters, a type of delivery against whom Mitchell doesn’t have a lot of success. In this World Cup alone, he has been dismissed four times to pacers and all four times, it has been to off-cutters.

Both Mohammed Shami and Jasprit Bumrah are great with their execution of off-cutters and India will be relying on them to bring that mojo to the Wankhede Stadium. 

Ground Details and Conditions

Batting first has been the lead narrative at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai. In the ongoing World Cup at this venue, the teams batting first have won three of the four games. Out of the four matches, captains have opted to bat first and bowl first on two occasions each in this World Cup.

The average first innings score at this venue has been around 360 whereas the average first innings winning score has been 380 in this World Cup. That tells you the need to bat first. Toss might be the most important factor here.

Tactical Insights

-> Even though this is not very prominent in the ongoing World Cup, Virat Kohli has struggled against left-arm orthodox spinners a lot, averaging just 20.9 against them, with nine dismissals in 16 innings since the start of 2022. Mitchell Santner will pose a strong threat to him.

-> In this World Cup, Shubman Gill has been dismissed twice to short balls in four balls. While he possesses a strong game against pacers, this might interest Lockie Ferguson, who bounced him out in the previous encounter. 

-> Devon Conway has been dismissed two times against right-arm pacers in the short mid-wicket region and one of these has come against Mohammed Siraj in the group stage of this World Cup. With Conway having form issues at the moment, Siraj will be interested to put pressure early on in the innings.

Probable XIs

It is highly unlikely that India would make any changes to their plan. 

India: Rohit Sharma (c), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul (wk), Suryakumar Yadav, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammed Shami, Kuldeep Yadav, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj

The same is the case for New Zealand as well. With Kane Williamson back already, they are set to play the same team that took on Sri Lanka in Bengaluru.

Predicted XI: Devon Conway, Rachin Ravindra, Kane Williamson (c), Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Tom Latham (wk), Mark Chapman, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Trent Boult, Lockie Ferguson