Bigger picture in focus as India continue their search for answers

The number was six before the series started. Five after the washout in Durban. And now it’s down to four in the aftermath of the second T20I in Gqeberha. 

That’s right, time is ticking, and four games are all that Team India have now to finalize their squad and the starting XI for the T20 World Cup in June. 

A three-match series away from home against a strong opponent like South Africa was supposed to give the management loads of answers, but a washout and a shortened blowout later, India still find themselves exactly where they were a week back, not having learnt too much about the side apart from the obvious things: Suryakumar is bloody good, Rinku is a must-have in the XI etc. 

There’s only one match left in this series but the Men in Blue will be hoping for the third T20I in Johannesburg to provide a lot more valuable takeaways and, crucially, clarity in terms of where the players stand as far as the pecking order is concerned. 

1-0 down after two games, India can no longer win this series but can still salvage it with a victory on Thursday. However, while the visitors will undoubtedly have one eye on the result, one suspects that it’s the ‘answers’ part that they will be focusing more on, with all eyes fully on the bigger picture.  

Things to watch out for 

Could we see India field a heavily rotated XI?

Jitesh Sharma, Tilak Varma, and Kuldeep Yadav all featured in the second T20I in Gqeberha, which the visitors comprehensively lost. 

This could mean two things: a) all the aforementioned players are ahead of their counterparts in the pecking order and will be incumbents going forward, or b) the management decided in advance that they’ll give one game each to those still contending for a spot in the T20 World Cup XI. 

We’ll get to know on Thursday what the management’s thought process is, but logic dictates that we’ll see those who did not feature in the second T20I, in action at the Wanderers stadium.

However, should that not turn out to be the case, fielding an unchanged XI will be harsh on the likes of Ravi Bishnoi and Ruturaj Gaikwad, who were standout performers in the Australia series.

Rahul Dravid & Co. have big calls to make ahead of the third T20I. The playing XI on Thursday could just end up telling us how clear the management are when it comes to the composition of the first XI for the T20Is.

South Africa will want Jansen to rebuild his confidence quickly

After a dream start to the World Cup, where he could seemingly do no wrong, the last few weeks have been rough for Marco Jansen. Jansen was South Africa’s x-factor leading up to the latter stages of the World Cup but he got taken apart by India in Kolkata (9.4-0-94-1), after which he got pulverized by the Aussies in a low-scoring semi-final, where he conceded 35 off just 4.2 overs after registering a golden duck with the bat.

The left-armer endured a dream start on Tuesday, in the second T20I, dismissing Yashasvi Jaiswal on the third ball of the match, but bad habits crept in soon enough, and it didn’t take long for the wheels to come off: Jansen finished with 3-0-39-1 despite conceding just three of his first over.

South Africa won’t be bothered about his T20 bowling for the time being (his E.R after 4 matches is 11.60) but will want him to rebuild his confidence soon, ahead of the two-Test series, starting December 26th. Jansen is a very crucial part of South Africa’s Test attack and the Proteas will need the left-armer to be at his best in order to overcome the Indian threat.

The third T20I on Thursday provides Jansen an opportunity to build consistency and get back on track, and get to the level that he showed during the starting stages of the World Cup.

Ground details and conditions

The third and final T20I will be played at the New Wanderers Stadium in Johannesburg. 

A total of four T20Is have been played at the venue since 2020 and it’s proven to be a very high-scoring ground. The average batting score in the last three years at this venue has been 186, with the average winning score batting first being 208. 

Three of the last four T20Is at this venue have seen the team batting first post 185+, with West Indies posting 220 in the last T20I at this venue, in March this year. That match saw a total of 433 runs being scored.

With the forecast being clear, expect a run-fest on Thursday. 

Tactical Nous

> Going short and wide seems to be a viable option against Jaiswal, especially early on. 50% of his dismissals against pace in T20Is (inside the powerplay) have been extremely wide deliveries that he’s chased or failed to dispatch properly. He got out a couple of times in a similar fashion in the Australia series and did the same again in the second T20I in Gqeberha, where he cut Jansen straight to point. Expect South Africa to keep bowling wide to Jaiswal, especially first up.

> Bowling off-spin to Jitesh seems to be a very good match-up for the bowling side. In his T20 career, the wicket-keeper has an average of just 20.0 versus off-spin and strikes at just 113 against them, the lowest for him against any bowling type. Aiden Markram got him in the second T20I with his part-time off-spin; don’t be surprised if South Africa turn to Markram once again when Jitesh walks out to bat.

Probable XIs

Expect South Africa to field an unchanged side, with their starting XI pretty much set.

South Africa: Matthew Breetzke, Reeza Hendricks, Aiden Markram (c), Heinrich Klaasen (wk), David Miller, Tristan Stubbs, Marco Jansen, Andile Phehlukwayo, Gerald Coetzee, Lizaad Williams, Tabraiz Shamsi

India could rotate heavily to give most players in the 15-man squad a run out in the middle

India: Yashasvi Jaiswal, Shubman Gill, Shreyas Iyer, Ishan Kishan (wk), Suryakumar Yadav (c), Rinku Singh, Ravindra Jadeja, Deepak Chahar, Ravi Bishnoi, Mohammed Siraj, Mukesh Kumar