OPINION
Follow UsIf you, as a franchise, have qualified for the playoffs, congratulations. You are now that much closer to winning the title. But no matter how well you might have fared in the group stages, once you enter the knockouts, there’ll always be the risk of things going horribly wrong.
A crack that was papered over might get exposed; you might find yourself in a situation that you never previously did all tournament; an individual who you rely badly on might end up having an off day.
Gujarat, Rajasthan, Lucknow and Bangalore have deservedly made it to the final four, but neither side is perfect. All four teams have frailties that, if exploited correctly, could prove to be fatal.
Ahead of the playoffs, we look at the threats that the four teams that have qualified will need to be wary of.
Lucknow Super Giants - how and where they could find themselves in trouble
If both Rahul and de Kock fall cheaply
But what we learnt from their games in the group stages is that they struggle, big time, when both their openers fall cheaply. LSG lost 5 matches in the group stages, and in those games, Rahul and de Kock combinedly scored 115 runs from 10 innings at an average of 11.5.
Or in other words, in 8 of LSG’s 9 wins in the group stages, at least one of Rahul or de Kock ended up scoring a half-century. LSG won only one game in which both Rahul and de Kock failed to cross 50 (vs PBKS in Pune) and even in that, de Kock amassed 46.
Lucknow have a middle-order that’s borderline scary, but what we’ve seen is that they rely heavily on their openers to do the anchoring. Get those two out early and you might be looking at a potential win.
What if Mohsin Khan has a bad day?
Since becoming a permanent starter for Lucknow, Mohsin Khan has arguably been the best seamer in the entire league. In his last 7 matches, the left-armer has picked 13 wickets at a stunning ER of 5.7, and his new-ball bowling has been the cornerstone of LSG’s success.
But what if, say, Mohsin has a bad day in the eliminator? That could potentially spell doom for Lucknow.
The 23-year-old has been taken to the cleaners just once since his reintegration back into the LSG team on April 24 (0/43 off 4 vs RR) and the Super Giants, incidentally, went on to lose that contest.
That could be a mere coincidence, of course, but what cannot be denied is that the Super Giants rely quite a bit on the young left-armer. He sets the tone up-front with his new-ball bowling, and in the second half of the group stages, it was Mohsin’s consistency that enabled Rahul to utilize Avesh Khan the way he wanted.
They’ve now put more responsibility on Mohsin’s shoulders by dropping Dushmantha Chameera and drafting-in Evin Lewis. LSG might just end up struggling should the left-armer endure a bad day.
LSG’s strained relationship with chasing totals
Lucknow did a lot of things well across the 14 matches in the group stages, but one thing they did not is chase efficiently. LSG finished with 18 points, but 7 of their 9 wins came when they batted first. In the entirety of the group stages, Rahul’s side managed to chase successfully just twice (4 losses in 6 attempts).
Given just how uncomfortable they are as a chasing side, it could spell trouble for LSG should they be asked to bat second come the Eliminator. Batting first has been their comfort zone, and being asked to step out of it might unsettle them a bit. RCB, notably, did well defending targets, coming out on top on 4/7 occasions.
Rajasthan Royals - how and where they could find themselves in trouble
Getting the sixth bowler into play
For nearly the entirety of the group stages, Rajasthan fielded five specialist bowlers in the XI. In each of their last 4 matches, the Royals did not use a single over from the available sixth-bowling options. Skipper Sanju Samson would be hoping for there to be no need for him to go to his sixth bowler during the playoffs too.
Because whenever Samson did go to his sixth bowler during the group stages, it did not end well. Across the 14 matches, Riyan Parag, Daryl Mitchell, Jimmy Neesham and Yashasvi Jaiswal sent down 55 balls between them. Those 9.1 overs traveled for 121 runs.
If you’re a batting side, then, there might be merit in consciously targeting one of the five specialist bowlers, thereby forcing Samson’s hand into using the sixth bowling option (which will most likely be Parag, in the absence of both Neesham and Mitchell).
Leaving the finishers with too much to do
What was noticeable in those games was that the Top 4 batters left the finishers with too much to do.
In the three aforementioned matches, the Royals’ score at the 15-over mark read 102/3, 105/3 and 116/3 respectively. They did not suffer fatal top-order collapses in any of those matches, but their batters, nevertheless, were unable to find the right tempo. A muddled approach eventually resulted in the side posting a below-par total and, in turn, losing.
The re-introduction of Yashasvi Jaiswal seems to have added that much more positivity to RR’s batting, but the Royals, come the playoffs, will need to be wary of batting a tad too conservatively up top. Some of that conservatism comes from the fact that they do not bat deep, true, but, at the same time, there is little point in nudging your way to a barely par total.
Unfamiliarity with batting second
Remarkably, in the group stages, Rajasthan batted first in 11 of the 14 matches they played. Sanju Samson’s rotten luck with tosses meant RR batting first over and over again, but the Royals somehow ended up perfecting the art of defending totals.
Heading into the playoffs, though, there is a significant concern, and that’s their unfamiliarity with chasing. The Royals have chased just thrice all season, and despite coming out on top in two of those games, it goes without saying that they simply don’t have enough experience chasing targets down.
This unfamiliarity with batting second could make things slightly complicated for the Royals in the playoffs, should they find themselves in the midst of a tricky chase. Their batters cannot possibly look back and think that they’ve ‘been there and done it’.
Royal Challengers Bangalore - how and where they could find themselves in trouble
Kohli and Faf getting bogged down up top
The same, however, cannot be said about RCB’s openers. Heading into the playoffs, there still exists the risk that Kohli and Faf du Plessis might get bogged down up top and in turn deny the middle-order the opportunity to cause maximum damage, particularly whilst batting first.
In terms of strike rate, RCB have been the second-worst batting side in the powerplay, with both du Plessis (104.5) and Kohli (120.5) posting underwhelming numbers in the phase. More than one of the batters perishing early, however, what might actually end up hurting RCB is the pair batting together for an extended period of time at a middling rate. Even in RCB’s previous encounter against Gujarat, for instance, despite Faf and Kohli putting together a 115-run opening stand, RCB needed 55 off 5.3 overs when their skipper departed. The game was far from over, and it needed a blazing cameo from Maxwell for the Reds to get over the line.
Wicket-conservation is never bad — just that it shouldn’t come at the cost of the team not utilizing its full batting potential.
Trouble if the wickets are not conducive to spin
In the last 5 matches of the group stages, RCB managed to get 27 overs out of Maxwell and Shahbaz Ahmed, their designated sixth and seventh bowlers. In those overs, the pair took 9 wickets between them, while going at just about 8 an over. Wanindu Hasaranga himself has been having an outrageously good campaign, but in the second half of the group stages, the Royal Challengers largely benefited from the fact that the slow nature of the pitches allowed them to strangle teams with their more-than-decent part-time options.
This tactic, however, might not be feasible in the playoffs. The matches are expected to be played on (fresh) wickets that are traditionally good for batting — should that be the case, du Plessis will not have the luxury of squeezing overs out of his part-timers.
It could be a problem for RCB, for in the second half of the group stages, Maxwell and Shahbaz, to a large extent, helped mask the failure of Mohammed Siraj, who proved to be a liability. Playing on wickets not conducive to spin will mean that du Plessis will have to rely on either Siraj or Sid Kaul to get the job done for the side.
Gujarat Titans - how and where they could find themselves in trouble
Setting a total still a concern for the Titans
Despite winning 4 of the 7 matches in which they’ve batted first, setting a total is not something the Titans are too fond of. In seven attempts, they’ve managed to score over 175 just once, and their strike rate of 135.2 whilst batting first is the second-worst in the entire league.
In the group stages, Hardik Pandya’s side managed to defend totals of 144, 156 and 171, but such a task might prove to be monumental even for a bowling line-up of GT’s quality, on wickets such as Kolkata and Ahmedabad.
GT’s line-up is filled with batters who prefer to chase — be it an anchor like Gill for whom chasing makes innings construction easier, or finishers like Tewatia and Miller who fare much better when they have an equation in front of them. Having to set a total on good batting wickets, therefore, might prove to be a challenge for the Titans batting unit. One suspects that they’d prefer chasing over setting a total, any day of the week.
The active danger of things going all awry for Lockie Ferguson
The Titans have finished the group stages top of the table with 10 wins, but the truth is they’ve done so despite Lockie Ferguson who, after an encouraging start, has proven to be a complete liability.
Across his last 7 matches in the group stages, Ferguson has taken just 4 wickets while going at 10.2 runs per over. That the Titans lost each of the last three games Ferguson featured in might be a mere coincidence, but the speedster hasn’t contributed anything worthwhile since his three-wicket haul against Rajasthan back in the second week of April.
The problem with Ferguson is that when he is bad, he tends to be really bad. And the Titans have already seen the bad side of the New Zealander multiple times this season: in the last 9 games, the right-armer has gone at over 11.5 runs per over on 4 occasions.
Mohammed Shami can only do so much, and Rashid Khan cannot win matches single-handedly. Gujarat’s dream debut could endure an anticlimactic end should Ferguson not regain his form and accuracy.
The change in venue that needs to be factored in — by all four teams
The first half of IPL 2022 proved to be a run-fest but things started slowing down gradually as the tournament progressed. As the wickets became more and more tired in the latter half of the group stages, spin started to play a significant role. We already went through how RCB used the tired wickets to their advantage, but they were not the only ones. The Gujarat Titans, for instance, drafted R Sai Kishore into the side to exploit the conditions.
But with the playoff games set to be played in Kolkata and Ahmedabad respectively, there will be an inherent need for teams to make reassessments owing to the change in venue; fresh plans will need to be devised. This means that the XI a particular side picked in its final group game might not necessarily be its best XI for the Eliminator or Qualifier 1, due to the change in conditions.
Likewise, a template a particular side had in the group stages might not necessarily work come the playoffs.
All said and done, thanks to the presence of a myriad all-rounders, LSG look like the side best equipped to thrive in all conditions.
