The pendulum in T20s can swing in a flash. One ball, one bad decision, one over is enough change the complexion of the game. Here, we jot down the biggest game-changing overs of the 2022 T20 World Cup in the Super 12 and the semi-final stage. They are based on the movement of the Criclytics win projector between the start and the end of the over.
Generally, most game-changing overs take place at the death. But in the 2022 T20 World Cup, most such instances were during the middle-overs phase. Spoiler alert, the 14th over of the run chase has made its appearance thrice.
The first and the last over of the match are not considered. Hence, you won’t see the maverick last over from the India-Pakistan game. For your curiosity, India had 1% chance before Virat Kohli deposited a debatable no-ball for six in the 20th over. Let’s delve into the main thing now.
Match 23, India vs Bangladesh, second innings, 12th over
W . 1 . W 1
India’s win percentage increased by 40%
The brisk start from Litton Das had put Bangladesh on the verge of an unlikely win. The rain break during the run chase broke their momentum but Bangladesh were still ahead. At the start of the 12th over, they needed 52 off five overs. Litton was run out but Bangladesh had enough batting left with eight wickets in hand.
India’s best bowler of the competition, Arshdeep Singh then delivered the most game-changing over of this World Cup. He only conceded two singles, pushing the asking rate from 10.4 to 12.5. More importantly, he dismissed both the incumbent batters - Afif Hossain and Shakib Al Hasan. Bangladesh pressed the panic button, trying to whack him every ball but could never find the middle of the bat.
India’s win percentage soared from 40 to 80%. Thanks to this over from Arshdeep, they won quite comfortably.
Match 26, Australia vs Afghanistan, second innings, 14th over
1+W W . W 2 .
Australia’s win percentage increased by 37%
This over felt like Afghanistan shooting themselves in the foot. Ibrahim Zadran and Gulbadin Naib had pulled them back in the game, with a partnership of 59 runs. The game was in balance. Criclytics read Afghanistan’s chances at 50%.
The over began on a poor note for Afghanistan. Glenn Maxwell’s direct hit caught Naib short off making the second run. Ibrahim, the other set batter top-edged a sweep stroke to the short fine-leg fielder. Afghanistan lost both their set batters on consecutive deliveries. Two balls later, Najibullah Zadran slogged his way out of the middle for some inexplicable reason.
It was Adam Zampa's last over. While only scoring 3 runs in the over was fine but Afghanistan imploded losing three wickets. Australia’s win percentage shot up to 87% and won by only 4 runs. Rashid Khan’s unbeaten 48 off 23 balls showcased they could have crossed the line if he had some support at the other end.
Match 28, South Africa vs Netherlands, second innings, 16th over
1 W . wd W 1 1
Netherlands’ win percentage increased by 32%
An over that changed the tournament! A six from Heinrich Klaasen in the previous over had eased South Africa’s nerves. 48 off 30 balls was quite well in reach for the Proteas.
However, Brandon Glover fetched the prized wicket of David Miller on the second ball. Roelof van der Merwe took what is arguably the catch of the season to complete the dismissal. Miller’s departure alone dipped South Africa’s chances by 16%. Glover added salt to their wounds by sending Wayne Parnell for a two-ball duck. Only 4 runs in the over pushed the asking rate from 9.6 to 11.
Glover’s over forced Netherlands’ chances from 43 to 75%. It led to the most shocking result in this tournament of upsets. The 13-run loss crushed the Proteas out of the World Cup, opening the door for Pakistan. And they are in the finals now. You see how the over changed the tournament?
Match 18, India vs South Africa, second innings, 14th over
6 2 1 1 1 6
South Africa’s win percentage increased by 23%
17 runs from the over. In a match where the average run-rate is less than 7, such high-scoring overs can break the chase. In this case, South Africa had only 40 runs in the first 10 overs. They needed a few big overs and this over served exactly that.
Ravichandran Ashwin, having come with the reputation of a defensive spinner, leaked a six each to David Miller and Aiden Markram. The duo did well to run hard between the wickets on other deliveries. It pulled down the asking rate from 9.4 to 8.2. It pushed South Africa’s chances from 41 to 64%. They never looked behind from this point, winning the game in a comfortable manner.
Semi-final 1, New Zealand vs Pakistan, second innings, third over
. 4 1 4 2 4
Pakistan’s win percentage increased by 19%
New Zealand’s only hope after posting an underpar total in the semi-final was Pakistan’s poor run-chase record in the World Cup. Both Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan were out of nick and any early inroads would have out the Kiwis right in the game.
However, it was the duo of Babar and Rizwan who threw the first punch. It came in the third over. Trent Boult bowled quite short outside the off stump and the Pakistan openers lashed out on every opportunity. A 15-run over set the tone of a successful run chase. Pakistan’s chances improved from 46 to 65%. From thereon, it was one way traffic.
Match 12, Zimbabwe vs Pakistan, second innings, 14th over
. 1 wd 6 W W .
Zimbabwe’s win percentage increased by 18%
One of the most seesawing overs in one of the most memorable games of this World Cup. Zimbabwe began with only a 28% chance of toppling Pakistan. When Shadab Khan hammered Sikandar Raza for a six over long-on, their chances slumped to 20%. The Men in Green needed only 43 off 39 balls at that point.
Raza then hit back with back-to-back wickets. The joy on the face of the Zimbabwean players vindicated the shift in the Criclytics win projection, elevating their chances to 44%. Another dot ball saw Zimbabwe at 46% at the end of the over. Pakistan were still ahead but they only slipped further. Zimbabwe won by 1 run in a major upset.
From 28 to 20 to 46%, the pendulum swung both ways right in the middle of the 14th over.
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