TACTICAL PREVIEW
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India have had quite a run in the 2023 World Cup, having won all four of their encounters, but the Men in Blue are now set to take on their bogey team. Yes, we are talking about New Zealand, who themselves are unbeaten after four games. The stress level automatically goes up for every Indian cricket fan when they see India take on New Zealand in ICC events. It won’t be wrong to say that the Black Caps own India in ICC events.
New Zealand have lost only one out of nine matches played against India in ICC tournaments since 1992. We are sure you all remember what happened in that semi-final of the 2019 World Cup in England. Then in that inaugural World Test Championship final. India always find a way to lose to New Zealand in these big tournaments.
Can they change their fortunes this time around? Well, India’s form surely suggests so. This is also the first time India will be playing New Zealand in the league stage since 2003, so there will be no knockout pressure on the hosts. Rohit Sharma and his men have been in superb form in the ongoing World Cup, having hammered Australia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh. However, they will be without Hardik Pandya in this encounter, so it will be interesting to see how they deal with his absence.
Meanwhile, New Zealand themselves have done almost everything right in this competition. They started their campaign with a statement win against defending champions England and then got the better of the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan. Their regular skipper Kane Williamson made a comeback but fractured his thumb in the same game. New Zealand, however, haven’t felt his absence.
New Zealand’s route has been slightly easier compared to India’s, but a win on Sunday (October 22) would make them one of the favourites. One of the winning streaks is going to end in Dharamsala, but the team that survives would more or less cement their place in the semis.
Things to watch out for
Who comes in for Hardik Pandya
The ace all-rounder hurt his ankle in the game against Bangladesh and had to walk off the field after bowling just three deliveries. Pandya hasn’t travelled to Dharamsala and will directly join the team in Lucknow for the England game. Everyone went mad when Virat Kohli came to complete Pandya’s over in Pune, but it’s now time for the reality to strike. How do you replace someone like him?
There are a couple of options India could explore against New Zealand. Pandya have faced only eight deliveries in this World Cup, that too in one innings against Australia. And, if India are brave enough, they could replace him with R Ashwin or Mohammed Shami. The conditions in Dharamsala would suit Shami more but it’s highly doubtful that India would trust Shardul Thakur at seven and then have four frontline bowlers. Ashwin makes a better case but every New Zealand batter has a good record against offspinners since 2021.
The best option would be to replace Pandya with Suryakumar Yadav and bring in Shami in place of Thakur. Ishan Kishan is also on the bench, but SKY is a much better option at No. 6. SKY averages less than 30 in this format but has scores of 8, 72*, 50, 26 and 35 in his last five innings and would give India that firepower down the order. Meanwhile, Mohammed Siraj and Thakur have leaked runs at an economy of more than six, so having someone like Shami in the line-up would offer in-form Jasprit Bumrah some much-needed support.
Howbeit, don’t be surprised if the team management brings in SKY in place of Pandya and keeps Thakur at No. 8 for that “extra batting depth.”
* There are reports coming in from Dharamshala that SKY was hit on his right wrist while practicing. If he isn't fit, Kishan becomes an obvious pick.
Real Test for Indian batters?
With an average of 23.4 and a strike rate of 28.6, New Zealand have been the best bowling unit in this World Cup. When it comes to batting, India have operated at an average of 77.3 and a scoring rate of 6.2. Rohit (265 runs @ 66.25), Shubman Gill (69 runs @ 34.50), Kohli (259 runs @129.50), Shreyas Iyer (97 runs @ 48.50) and KL Rahul (150 runs without getting out) have all been amongst runs, but this is the game where they could really get tested.
Trent Boult, Matt Henry, Lockie Ferguson, and Mitchell Santner have 31 wickets between them and have been the top performers in the bowling department. Boult and Henry have troubled Rohit, Gill and Kohli in the past, but if the India top-order could survive the new-ball burst, things might get easier in the middle overs. Santner is the leading wicket-taker in this tournament but doesn’t have a great record against India’s top five. Ferguson has six wickets in the last two games, but apart from Iyer, all Indian batters enjoy high pace.
Ground details and team combination
The Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium in Dharamsala has been one of the best bowling venues in this year’s World Cup. Amongst venues that have hosted at least two games in this event, Dharamsala has the best bowling average (26.6) and balls/dismissal (30.1). The fast bowlers here have an average of 25.4 and a strike rate of 27.9, while the corresponding numbers for spinners are 29.3 and 36.4, respectively.
There has been enough written about the outfield, so let’s not go there. Last week, England smoked 364 against Bangladesh at this venue, but that has been the only 250-plus score in six innings in this World Cup. What’s more, two of the three games have been won by the side batting first. There will be ample movement in the evening, so don’t be surprised if we finally see India batting first if they win the toss.
Tactical insights
- With seven wickets in four games at an average of 20.28 and an economy rate of just 3.75, Ravindra Jadeja has been in phenomenal bowling form in this World Cup. He will once again be important to India’s cause as Devon Conway (three dismissals in six innings, average 19), Glenn Phillips (two dismissals in four innings, average 11), and Rachin Ravindra (two dismissals in two innings, average 5.5) have all struggled against left-arm spin since 2022.
- Kohli’s struggle against left-arm spin has been well documented, but his numbers in the powerplay against left-arm pace haven’t been great either. The master batter, who slammed a hundred against Bangladesh, has an average of 19.7 against left-arm seamers in the first 10 overs since 2022 and got out to them three times in seven innings.
Probable XIs
India - Rohit Sharma (c), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul (wk), Suryakumar Yadav/Ishan Kishan, Ravindra Jadeja, Shardul Thakur/Mohammed Shami, Kuldeep Yadav, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj.
New Zealand - Devon Conway, Will Young, Rachin Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham (c & wk), Glenn Phillips, Mark Chapman, Mitchell Santner, Matt Henry, Lockie Ferguson, Trent Boult.
