TACTICAL PREVIEW
Follow UsAfter a dominant batting display with the bat in the first two games, South Africa were undone by a resurgent Netherlands team, who stunned them in Dharamsala to register their first win of the World Cup. The Dutch not just exposed the Proteas' bowling attack, taking over 100 from their last 10 overs, but also made the world aware that their batting line-up is not invincible, especially after South Africa had put up a record 428 and 311 in their opening two games.
England, too, are hurting from their defeat at the hands of Afghanistan and would like to put that behind them by bouncing back with a victory right away. A slender advantage of having won four out of the seven World Cup games against the Proteas could act as a boost. Another loss for the Jos Buttler-led side in this edition could very well see them play catch-up; however, for Temba Bavuma's side, a loss here could undo all the good work they put in to win the first two matches convincingly.
This clash will be against two of the quickest-scoring sides. While South Africa lead the way with a run rate of 6.7 in ODIs this year, England are not too far behind at 6.3. Moreover, England (6.3) and South Africa (6.5) have the best run-rates in the middle-overs as well.
Things to watch out for
Can Markram ace the chase?
There's little doubt that Aiden Markram is one of the vital white-ball players for South Africa. In ODIs this year, he has scored 740 runs at 61.67, along with a strike-rate of 127. However, he has not been at his best while chasing down a target. Overall, he has scored 718 runs at 28.7 and has slammed just three fifties in 28 innings.
However, other than his recent form, what works in Markram's favour is his dominance in the middle overs, where he has a strike rate of 115, the highest after Heinrich Klaasen (132) and Rohit Sharma (120), among players with at least 200 runs this year.
Chasing is not just an issue with Markram or South Africa, for that matter, England have not won a single match where they were set a target of 250 ODIs since 2022. They have lost all five.
How vital is Malan for England?
With Jason Roy not considered for the World Cup, Dawid Malan's excellent form in the 50-over format has been a boon for England. He has scored over 1,200 runs in the format since 2021 at an average of close to 64. What England have at their disposal at the top is a left-handed batter who can take on the pacers and spinners with utmost ease. Since 2021, he is just one of five players in the world who averages over 50 against the pacers and spinners, which certainly bodes well for them.
Ground details
Going by recent stats, there isn't much for the spinners at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai. In ODIs since 2020, fast bowlers have accounted for 79.20% of the wickets and have done so at an economy rate of 5.3, striking once every 27.5 runs, 31.4 deliveries apart. The corresponding numbers for the spinners are 5.4, 68.6, and 75.6, respectively.
In the last 10 matches at this venue, the team batting second have gone on to win on seven occasions. South Africa will play their first game at the Wankhede since they posted their second-highest total of 438 for 4 in October 2015.
Tactical insights
Jonny Bairstow has gotten off to starts in two of the three games so far and will have to play a vital role at the top once again for England. But he has been susceptible against left-arm pacers. Post the 2019 World Cup, left-arm quicks have dismissed him on six occasions at an average of 22.5 (SR 98). With Marco Janesn set to open the bowling for South Africa, his battle against Bairstow could be an interesting one.
England have not used the services of Moeen Ali since playing the first game against New Zealand in Ahmedabad. If he were to be drafted into the side, he could pose Quinton de Kock some threat, given that the southpaw has averaged just 26.6 (SR 96) against off-spinners after the 2019 World Cup. If not Moeen, Jos Buttler has the part-time option of Joe Root, who could be introduced a little earlier to counter de Kock.
Team news & combination
England
It is believed that Ben Stokes could make a return to the XI for this game, but he will play solely as a batter. Harry Brook seems to be the most probable candidate to make way for Stokes, despite scoring a valiant 66 against Afghanistan. With Chris Woakes not in the best of forms in the World Cup so far, having managed just two wickets at an economy rate of 7.50, could be a place for either Gus Atkinson or David Willey to make their World Cup debuts.
If Stokes manages to chip in with a few overs, he could potentially play over Woakes. Stokes, Root, and Liam Livingstone could bowl 10 overs between them and share the responsibility of the fifth bowler.
Probable XI: Jonny Bairstow, Dawid Malan, Joe Root, Harry Brook/Ben Stokes, Jos Buttler (c & wk), Liam Livingstone, Sam Curran, Chris Woakes/Gus Atkinson/David Willey, Adil Rashid, Mark Wood, Reece Topley
South Africa
While the Proteas may not consider bringing back Tabraiz Shamsi as the game is in Wankhede, they have the option of calling on the services of Andile Phehlukwayo, who, along with being a medium pacer, can also chip in with some vital runs down the order with Gerald Coetzee making way.
Probable XI: Quinton de Kock (wk), Temba Bavuma (c), Rassie van der Dussen, Aiden Markram, Heinrich Klaasen, David Miller, Marco Jansen, Gerald Coetzee/Andile Phehlukwayo, Kagiso Rabada, Keshav Maharaj, Lungi Ngidi
