PRE MATCH ANALYSIS
Follow Us8-3, the ODI World Cup record couldn’t have been more dominant for Australia.
Over the years, the Trans-Tasman rivalry has failed to meet its expectations, almost ending up perenially as a one-sided battle. The rivalry last had a few sparks during the 2015 ODI World Cup group stage game.
Australia’s ODI record against New Zealand in India is 8-0; that’s as flawless as it gets. But going by the current form, this Kiwi side can’t be taken lightly. Every game, there is a new hero; if there was Rachin Ravindra and Devon Conway in the clash against England, it was Mitchell Santner in the Netherlands match.
Then, the duo of Lockie Ferguson and Daryl Mitchell performed in the next two games. For Australia, all focus would be on the return of Travis Head, who will give the Australian dressing room a good headache.
Will Head’s return come at the expense of an in-form Marnus Labuschagne, or will it come at the expense of an all-rounder, given Mitchell Marsh has returned to the bowling crease?
Things to watch out for
Mitchell Starc hasn’t fired yet in World Cup
Starc has picked up a wicket every game at this year’s ODI World Cup. In fact, the left-arm pacer has picked up at least a wicket in every 23 World Cup games he has played since the clash against England in 2015. In short, Starc is a World Cup beast, but he hasn’t quite lit up the tournament yet.
In this edition of the competition, the left-arm pacer has picked up his seven wickets at an average of 30.6, unknown territory for the Australian. But that’s where New Zealand come into the picture. If there’s one team that Starc would fancy right now, it is New Zealand.
Against the BlackCaps in the World Cup, Starc has picked up 13 wickets, averaging 5.7, with his economy reading 2.8. If that’s not stunning, then there isn’t any.
Will New Zealand’s batting pass the spin test?
New Zealand are well accustomed to the conditions in Dharamshala. They handled the wrist spin of Kuldeep Yadav like it was no trouble whatsoever. But now they will be up against an in-form Adam Zampa. Zampa’s last three World Cup figures are 4/47, 4/53, and 4/8, joining the likes of Mohammed Shami and Shahid Afridi as the third bowler with consecutive four-wicket hauls.
In fact, he has 12 four-wicket hauls in his ODI career and is only behind Shane Warne (13) for an all-time record. New Zealand have the second-best strike rate against spin in this year’s World Cup and also boasts an average (73.4), with a run-rate of 6. So, their intentions against spin are already well-known in the tournament.
But can they give Zampa the same treatment?
All eyes are on David Warner
A lot of Australia’s batting hopes hinge on David Warner’s form. In 2023, the left-handed batter has scored 722 runs, the most for any Australian batter this year. Not just that, at this year’s World Cup too, his numbers have been god-like, with 332 runs in five innings, including back-to-back centuries against Pakistan and the Netherlands.
That was Warner’s sixth World Cup century, and only Rohit Sharma has more centuries than him at the global event. One of Warner’s weaknesses over the last few years has been his ability against spin, which has time and again been exposed. But not in this year’s event, with the southpaw averaging 165.
With Head likely to return to the setup, all eyes will be on Warner’s form.
Tactical Insights
Warner’s struggle against the Kiwi pace
As already established, Warner’s form is on a different tangent, and his World Cup numbers are up there with some of the best in the game. New Zealand will need to stop him, and that’s where Matt Henry comes in quite handy. Henry has dismissed Warner the joint-most times in ODIs (four), and the southpaw only averages 22.5 against the pacer.
Also read: Matt Henry: underrated, under-appreciated new-ball behemoth
In fact, if not for Henry, New Zealand can also rest their hope on Lockie Ferguson, who is in some form now. Ferguson has dismissed Warner thrice, and the left-hander only averages 15.3 against the speedster.
New Zealand have the right tools to remove Maxwell
Likewise, New Zealand will need to have plans in place for in-form Glenn Maxwell. Guess who has the best record against Maxwell in ODIs? Trent Boult. Boult has been decent in this year’s tournament and has, more often than not, struck big during his second spell of a clash.
Boult has dismissed Maxwell six times in ODIs and has an average of just 3.2. In fact, even his strike rate of 59. Three out of the six times, the right-hander has been dismissed by the ball moving out.
Venue and Conditions
Amongst all the venues in the World Cup, the Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association (HPCA) Stadium in Dharmashala has the third-worst run rate (5.4). It is the only venue in the World Cup where the batting average has been below 30.
The average first innings at the venue has been only 260, with pacers having picked up 68.8% of the wickets (44). Don’t expect a run-fest.
Probable XI
With Travis Head returning, Australia will most likely have to make a choice between Marnus Labuschagne and Cameron Green to vacate a spot for the left-hander. At this point, it looks more like Labuschagne will get the axe.
Australia’s Probable XI: Travis Head, David Warner, Mitchell Marsh, Steve Smith, Josh Inglis (wk), Cameron Green, Glenn Maxwell, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Adam Zampa
On the other hand, New Zealand wouldn’t want to make any changes to their XI, barring injuries.
New Zealand’s Probable XI: Devon Conway, Will Young, Rachin Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham (c & wk), Glenn Phillips, Mark Chapman, Mitchell Santner, Matt Henry, Lockie Ferguson, Trent Boult
