TACTICAL PREVIEW
Follow UsThere couldn’t be a more contrasting campaign converging at a definite point like it will at the M. Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru on Saturday (November 4). New Zealand and Pakistan have plowed their way into the ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 to don the fourth and fifth positions on the points table - knowing very well that a miscalculated move would spell the death knell.
New Zealand started the campaign with four consecutive wins, but since the India game in Dharamsala, nothing has gone their way. They ran Australia close but lost. And against South Africa, they were as listless as one could be. It didn’t help that they were left with only 11 players at the backend of the South Africa clash, with a slew of injuries casting a shadow over their campaign.
Williamson has batted in the nets the last few days, and his finger seems to be in good shape, but when it comes to the Kiwi skipper’s fitness, no prediction is correct prediction. It remains to be seen whether he makes it to the Playing XI for the Pakistan clash - but with Devon Conway hitting an unprecedented low in the World Cup, the Kiwis could do with some stability from their talisman.
Also Read: The flaw in New Zealand’s plan
On the other hand, Pakistan operate the best in crisis. Their chief selector has resigned amidst an investigation by the PCB, the board has started a witch-haunt targetting the captain, and if that was not enough, there have been reports about multiple fractions operating within the squad. It is never an ideal situation, but when is it ideal in Pakistan anyway?
All it needs is a moment of cacophony to spur them on and then provide a base for a belligerent showing. We saw it in the last T20 World Cup and we also saw it in the 2017 Champions Trophy. Nothing is out of reach for Pakistan. Nothing is incessantly unbeatable. Nothing is so serious for them to make it casual. With that, the pressure is now on the Kiwis.
Things to watch out for
Can Pakistan really ace the Chinnaswamy challenge without spin effort?
So many spinners in the past have found this venue a graveyard, but as Sri Lanka proved in the last game against England, tweakers need to be at their best to take advantage of the Chinnaswamy surface. However, as a matter of fact, Pakistan’s spin unit have been disappointing in this World Cup, securing the second-least wickets among all teams while having the second-highest average and strike rate after Sri Lanka. Pakistan’s spin unit have the highest economy rate among all teams in CWC 2023.
Among the four Pakistan spinners who have bowled in this World Cup, Usama Mir has the lowest average with 62, with the rest averaging at least 80. If that’s your situation, things could drastically go wrong. For Pakistan to have any sort of hope to topple the Kiwis, the bout in the middle-overs will be a defining factor.
Can Zaman’s roller-coaster year witness another peak
Fakhar Zaman has always been a vital part of Pakistan’s ODI plans, but his recent slump put him on the bench. Okay, it’s not extreme, for Zaman has already smacked three centuries this year, his most in a year in ODIs. But the pattern somehow gives a clearer picture.
While he had a smashing start to the year with four 50+ scores in the first five ODIs in 2023, smashing three consecutive centuries, he suffered a dip in form in the next 11 innings before stepping up with a fifty in the last game against Bangladesh. His success will continue to put Imam-ul-Haq on the bench, and rightly so, but Zaman will have a huge monkey on his back to prove that the performance in the last game was no fluke.
He couldn’t have possibly asked for a better opposition to do that, for it was against New Zealand that Zaman scored three consecutive tons earlier in the year, including an unbeaten 180 in Rawalpindi. If Zaman manages to stay consistent, things might change for Pakistan.
Ground Details
In ODIs since 2011, the contest between teams batting first and second has been close at the M. Chinnaswamy Stadium, but captains have opted to bat first more often than not. The average first-innings score at this venue has been around 290, whereas the average first-innings winning score has been around 350. So, the venue’s reputation as a batting paradise shouldn’t be doubted.
Pacers have taken more wickets than spinners here in recent years, having grabbed 4.9 wickets per match on average compared to 1.6 by spinners since 2015.
Both teams have played three matches each at the venue. While New Zealand have lost all their games, Pakistan have won one and lost the remaining two games.
Tactical Insights
-> In the ongoing tournament, Rachin Ravindra has been dismissed only twice in the powerplay - both of the dismissals have come against left-arm pacers. Pakistan have Shaheen Afridi breathing fire in the last few games, and he will be looking to trouble the in-form all-rounder.
-> Mitchell Santner has bowled well against right-handed batters in this World Cup, as 13 of his 14 wickets have been right-handers. Pakistan have a lot of RHBs in their top order, and this could be a good matchup for him to ensure that his wicket-less spell against South Africa was just a bump on the road.
What do both teams need to do from a Qualification perspective?
If Afghanistan miraculously win their three games, they will secure 12 points, which is also New Zealand's maximum achievable points. Afghanistan's NRR is -0.718, which is a long way behind. This is why New Zealand need to win both their remaining games against Pakistan and Sri Lanka to avoid any last-minute hiccup.
On the flip side, if Pakistan win against New Zealand, then it will be a five-team race for two spots. But Pakistan need a good win to overtake New Zealand's NRR. For Pakistan to pip NZ on NRR, they will have to win the encounter by 82 or more runs if they score 200; 83 if they score 250; 85 or more while defending 300; and 86 with 350 on the board. If they are chasing, they must achieve the target in 35.2 or fewer overs. This is all Pakistan can do on their own. The rest remains out of their hands.
For more details, please check out Anirudh Kasargod’s detailed analysis.
Team News and Possible XI
New Zealand
Matt Henry has already been ruled out of the World Cup, with Kyle Jamieson flying to India to replace him. But the Kiwis may look at Lockie Ferguson if he is fit to take the field. Further, the possible absence of James Neesham may make way for Mark Chapman or Kane Williamson, depending on the duo’s fitness levels.
Predicted XI: Will Young/Kane Williamson, Devon Conway, Rachin Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham (C&WK), Glenn Phillips, Mark Chapman/James Neesham, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Trent Boult, Lockie Ferguson
Pakistan
With Fakhar Zaman showing signs of form, expect Pakistan to field an unchanged XI.
Predicted XI: Abdullah Shafique, Fakhar Zaman, Babar Azam (c), Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Saud Shakeel, Iftikhar Ahmed, Agha Salman, Shaheen Afridi, Usama Mir, Mohammad Wasim Jr, Haris Rauf
