Australia and South Africa eye valuable answers with World Cup in sight

After a fun (one-sided) T20 series that did not hold a lot of consequence, it’s time for some serious stuff. Australia take on South Africa in a five-match ODI series and it is a series that, unlike the T20s, holds plenty of consequence, for both sides will be hoping to get valuable answers ahead of the ICC Cricket World Cup 2023. 

Having rested plenty of seniors for the T20s, South Africa will be full strength for the ODIs but the visitors will continue to be under-strength owing to Pat Cummins, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, and Glenn Maxwell all nursing injuries. Like the T20Is, the Kangaroos will hence be captained by Mitchell Marsh, who will be leading a young-ish side that consists of plenty of individuals who’ll be hoping to grab eyeballs.

A five-match series less than a month away from the World Cup is, really, a privilege; both sides will thus be hoping to make the most out of this golden opportunity.

Click here for the full ICC 2023 Cricket World Cup schedule

A chance for Australia to experiment with (and finalize) their opening pair 

For the longest time, it looked like David Warner and Travis Head will be Australia’s opening pair in the World Cup but following Mitchell Marsh’s stunning showing opening the batting in the India series six months ago, the decision is not straightforward anymore. 

There, Marsh opened the batting in the first two ODIs in Warner’s absence and did so well —  81 (65) and 66* (36) — that he ended up keeping his spot at the top for the third ODI, with the Kangaroos instead pushing Warner to the middle-order. Marsh shone in the third ODI too, scoring a run-a-ball 47 that eventually proved to be decisive.

Marsh’s ability to obliterate bowlers in the powerplay is what’s been forcing Australia to give serious consideration to the thought of opening with the Western Australian — even though he claimed in lead-up to the first ODI that he 'expects' to bat in the middle-order. 

In the India series, he faced 95 balls in overs 1-10 and ransacked 126 runs at an SR of 132.63. Head, another batter known for his aggression upfront, had a great series himself against the new ball — 78 off 63 balls at 123.81 SR — but Marsh’s exploits ended up making Head’s aggression look ‘ordinary’. 

In a timely fashion, Marsh also, in the T20I series versus the Proteas last week, showcased just how much of a force of nature he could be upfront, batting at an SR of 186.67 in the powerplay.

This five-match series, then, is a chance for the Aussies to experiment with their opening pair ahead of the showpiece event. By the looks of it, Warner seems the likeliest candidate to drop to No.4 but the question Australia need to ask themselves is whether it’s worth fixing something that’s not broken. 

Warner, since 2020, is averaging 41.60 while striking at 93.27 and also has great chemistry with Travis Head, with whom he’s opened 7 times in ODIs and has added 703 runs at an average of 113.6 and SR of 113.1.

Lungi Ngidi could be playing for his spot in the WC squadIn many ways, Lungi Ngidi can consider himself a tad fortunate to have made the Proteas’ provisional World Cup squad. Since the start of 2021, Ngidi has featured in 19 ODIs, and in that, he’s managed to pick just 20 wickets at an average of 44.85 and an economy of 5.98. 

In this period, among bowlers who have sent down at least 150 overs in ODI cricket, no one has fared worse.

Ngidi has plenty of experience and pedigree, but he’ll have everything to prove in this series, especially coming on the back of a stinker of a T20I series where he took no wickets in 7.5 overs while conceding 108 runs at an eye-watering E.R of 13.78.

Mind you, the squad that’s announced is only provisional and can be changed till September 28th. So Ngidi could still realistically lose his spot if he has a poor outing. 

A poor showing from Ngidi could force South Africa to consider the possibility of replacing him with Wayne Parnell, who offers valuable batting depth down the order. As it stands, Marco Jansen is the only bowler in the Proteas squad capable of offering reliable lower-order runs. 

The Marcus Stoinis vs Cameron Green battle!

Warner, Head, Smith, Marsh, Carey, Maxwell. Notwithstanding the batting order, six of Australia’s top seven are already locked.

There’s a good chance these five ODIs might end up deciding who among Cameron Green and Marcus Stoinis end up completing the Top 7.

It’ll be easy to look at Green’s stunning ODI record — average 50.33 with the bat, 11 wickets @ 34.72 with the ball — and come to the conclusion that he must be higher in the pecking order but the youngster’s relative lack of inexperience makes things tricky.

Not only has Green played just 15 ODIs in his career, only two of them have come this calendar year. He did not bat in one of those two games.

Stoinis, this year, has played just one ODI more than Green, but the 34-year-old has plenty of experience overall, having played four times the number of ODIs as his Western Australia teammate.

But while Stoinis has experience on his side, something that’s not in his favor is form. A ‘batting all-rounder’ by designation, Stoinis is averaging a meagre 15.76 across his last 27 ODI innings, dating back to March 2019. He has, in this period, posted no fifty-plus scores.

Purely statistically, then, he’s lucky to have made Australia’s provisional squad. However, it is clear from the backing he’s received that the management are picking him for his ceiling; i.e. what he can do on his best day. 

The onus might hence be on Green to prove to the management that he is indeed better, and deserves to be in the XI as the primary all-rounder.

This series, the two players are likely to be evaluated by their bowling as well. Should Australia decide to go with two specialist spinners in the World Cup, they’ll be needed to axe one of their seamers and in that case, the management might end up giving the nod to the better bowler between Green and Stoinis. 

Stoinis, it is to be noted, is coming on the back of a fantastic series with the ball in the T20Is, where he picked up 5 wickets in 2 innings, predominantly bowling with the new ball. 

All eyes on Keshav Maharaj’s fitness

After suffering a serious Achilles injury in March, Keshav Maharaj’s participation in the World Cup was in jeopardy but the left-arm spinner has made a rather miraculous recovery and has taken his rightful spot in the squad for the showpiece event.

Maharaj has been an integral part of the Proteas’ ODI set-up in the past two years and, without question, walks into the XI when fit, but the 33-year-old will have to prove his fitness across these five ODIs.

Last week, he played his first professional match since March in the third T20I in Durban but looked rusty and off-colour, conceding 40 runs off the 3 overs he bowled. There, the left-arm spinner delivered plenty of uncharacteristic drag-downs and did not quite look 100% match fit.

For Maharaj, as much as anything, these five ODIs will be all about building match fitness and ensuring that he’s fit and firing by the time the World Cup arrives. There are no questions about his quality.

What will be interesting to see if both Maharaj and Tabraiz Shamsi feature in the starting XI, or if South Africa opt to go with just one specialist spinner, instead opting to use Aiden Markram as the second spinner.  

If they end up fielding just one specialist spinner, there’ll be that much more pressure on Maharaj to hit the ground running quickly. 

Possible XIs

Australia have already announced their starting XI. While there's no place for Marnus Labuschagne, the visitors have picked only two specialist seamers.

AUS XI: David Warner, Travis Head, Mitch Marsh (c), Cameron Green, Josh Inglis, Alex Carey, Marcus Stoinis, Sean Abbott, Ashton Agar, Josh Hazlewood, Adam Zampa

South Africa probable XI: Quinton de Kock (wk), Temba Bavuma (c), Rassie van der Dussen, Aiden Markram, Heinrich Klaasen, David Miller, Marco Jansen, Kagiso Rabada, Keshav Maharaj, Anrich Nortje, Lungi Ngidi