Battle of spin and a familiar rivalry in Asia Cup final

The expectations from this Asia Cup were vastly different. The persistent rain forecasts hinted at a few washouts, but a player-of-the-tournament-worthy performance from the ground staff ensured no fixture ended without a result in the Super 4 stage. 

An India-Pakistan final seemed inevitable. However, Pakistan got exposed for their frailties in the middle overs with the ball. And Sri Lanka, acing the same phase, has sneaked in to ruin that party. It is astonishing how India and Pakistan have made it to the Asia Cup final in the past editions but are yet to play a final together. It is the most repetitive fact you will hear in the 2023 Asia Cup final build-up. 

Sri Lanka is responsible for this, making it to the final 12 times, the most for a nation. On Sunday (September 17), they will aim at their seventh title to level with India in terms of being crowned the Asia Cup champions most times. However, in a setback, they have lost Maheesh Theekshana to a hamstring injury. They were already playing without their lead spinner, Wanindu Hasaranga. 

In any case, it won’t be easy for India, who starts as favourites. Their defeat against Bangladesh in a dead rubber clash to cap off the Super 4 stage has once again highlighted their vulnerabilities on spin-friendly tracks. Also, they faced a tough contest against Sri Lanka in Super 4s, losing all their ten wickets to spin. 

Both teams will see the bigger picture: the World Cup starting in around three weeks. However, the slow tracks and the humid conditions of Colombo will serve as the most gruelling prelude possible, with a shiny prize up for grabs.

Ground details and conditions

Colombo’s R. Premadasa Stadium has been one of the best venues for the spin bowlers. Since 2022 in ODIs, spinners have bowled 56.3% here, picking 51.5% of the wickets. In five matches of this Asia Cup, spinners have pouched 48.7%, which is still a healthy number. The lack of dew has further kept spinners in the game. 

The off spinners have been the most successful spinners at Premadasa, picking 18.5% of the wickets. Meanwhile, the left-arm orthodox spinners have been most economical, conceding only 4.3 runs per over. Therefore, the conditions here have favoured finger spin, which may remain the same during the final.  

Things to watch out for

The battle of spin

The battle of spin will decide the outcome of this final. Facing a Sri Lanka attack without Hasaranga and Theekshana, India will still have to circumvent the Dunith Wellalage threat. The 20-year ran through India’s top order, picking 5/40 on Tuesday (September 12). He had a wicket each in his first three overs, pocketing Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma.

India’s right-handed heavy batting line-up has long-lasting troubles against left-arm spinners. 

Sri Lanka will have to find a way to get past Kuldeep Yadav. The wrist-spinner is in the form of his life and averages only 21.3 for his 18 wickets in 10 matches against Sri Lanka. Kuldeep has nine wickets in three games against the Island nation this year. Given how he has enjoyed the Sri Lankan pitches in this series, the home side must be more careful against the wrist-spinner. 

Thus, both sides have a spin element as an x-factor as well as to neutralise. 

Jadeja’s batting form

The dip in Ravindra Jadeja’s batting form is alarming. Since 2021, the all-rounder featured only nine ODIs in the build-up to this Asia Cup. He averaged 37.3 with the bat in those games but at a paltry strike-rate of 59.8. Given the management sees him as a number seven batter, the strike-rate doesn’t cut it. Jadeja has scored only 25 runs from 53 balls at an average of 8.3 this Asia Cup. 

Moreover, his struggles against spin don’t make him a contender for promotion and break the right-handed monotony in the middle. Hence, Jadeja doesn’t solve any issue for India with the bat. 

The pressure on him increased with Axar Patel’s valiant 42 off 34 balls in the lost cause against Bangladesh. Axar will most likely miss the final, but with the eyes set on the World Cup, the pressure mounts on Jadeja to deliver with the bat. Even though Jadeja is bowling better and has a knack for clutch performances, his batting in the final could be a significant takeaway. 

Tactical Nous

> Kusal Mendis is the second-highest runscorer in the tournament and Sri Lanka’s most prolific batter in this Asia Cup with 253 runs (average 50.6, strike-rate 90). His 91 in the virtual semi-final against Pakistan paved the way for Sri Lanka’s route to the final. 

India can try bowling a lot of left-arm spin at Mendis. The right-hander has a strike-rate of only 54.5 against slow left-arm orthodox in this Asia Cup, at a false-shot percentage of 18.1%. 

The pacers can try bowling short at him. In ODIs since 2022, Mendis averages only 20.2 against deliveries bowled in the short or back-of-a-length region for six dismissals. 

> Irrespective of the conditions, Sri Lanka pacers would need to find a way to get the ball to move in towards Gill. The Indian opener averages 52.9 against that delivery type but has been dismissed ten times on such balls since 2022 in ODIs. No other delivery type has got him out more than twice. 

Probable XIs

Sri Lanka

Theekshana's unavailability is expected to bring the only forced change in Sri Lanka’s XI. The hosts can play the leg spinner Dushan Hemantha. Meanwhile, they have named the batting allrounder Sahan Arachchige a replacement, but his inclusion will disrupt the balance. 

Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Perera, Kusal Mendis (wk), Sadeera Samarawickrama, Charith Asalanka, Dhananjaya de Silva, Dasun Shanaka ( c ), Dunith Wellalage, Dushan Hemantha, Pramod Madushan, Matheesha Pathirana

India

The seven-time champions will welcome the likes of Virat Kohli, Jasprit Bumrah, Hardik Pandya and Mohammed Siraj back in the XI. Whether Shreyas Iyer plays or not remains to be seen. Axar is expected to miss out as a precautionary measure. Washington Sundar has been rushed to join the squad. However, the chances of his inclusion in the XI are minimal as the Men in Blue would like to field their first-choice XI. 

Rohit Sharma ( c ), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, KL Rahul (wk), Shreyas Iyer/Ishan Kishan, Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja, Shardul Thakur, Kuldeep Yadav, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj