Travis Head set to return, but at what cost?

Everyone else, please, make way. Travis Head is returning.

If this were put to vote in 2021, a nanosecond would be needed to call Australian Cricket BS. But here we are, two years down the line, witnessing one of the majestic limited-overs transformations in cricket - thus seeing Steve Smith - once Australia’s cricketing royalty - dropping down to No.4 to accommodate Travis Head at the top of the order. 

It’s happening in between an ICC Cricket World Cup, and nothing is surprising about it.

For context, let me tell you a bit about the Head conundrum. Since 2022 in ODIs, Head is averaging 60.84 and has struck at 119.84. As an opening pair, Head and David Warner averaged 93.4 with an insanely crazy strike rate of 127.00. These are some dominating numbers and one that positioned Australia as one of the most fearsome units ahead of the World Cup.

However, fate doesn’t always comply with the expectations of mankind. Right before the World Cup, Australia found themselves entangled in an injury nightmare, with Head getting hit flush on his arm by a rising delivery from Gerald Coetzee during the South Africa ODI series. So harming was the impact that Head sat out of the first half of the World Cup, rendering another shuffle in the batting order, with Warner and Marsh taking charge of new-ball domination. Smith has batted at #3, whereas Marnus Labuschagne has taken care of the #4 spot. That seemed highly convenient, and it worked as well. 

But now Australia have their full-strength squad back, which in an ideal scenario should make them happy, but a lot has changed since then to give a different picture. 

Perils of Smith dropping down one position

This is the most ideal scenario from a combination perspective, and in all probability, Australia will opt for the same against New Zealand. However, that would be curbing Smith’s ability with the bat. 

The former Australian skipper averages 52.84 at the #3 position, with 11 of his 12 ODI hundreds coming at that position. Further, Smith is going through a difficult time in his ODI career, with his average dropping to 28.00 at an SR of just a shade over 86 in the ongoing World Cup. In the last game against the Netherlands in Delhi, Smith showed glimpses of his old form, and how easily he will adapt himself to the new role is left to be challenged. 

Additionally, Mitchell Marsh is not so proficient against spin in the middle overs, having a dot ball percentage of 58.57% in this World Cup alone. Him dropping down to #3 means he will have to deal more with spinners, going against the very idea of maximizing advantage. 

That said, there’s a Labuschagne factor to worry about as well. The Queensland batter has 234 runs in five matches, and even though his strike rate of 78.2 is a problem, he has shown proficiency in arresting collapses time and again. While it seems plausible that he will be dropped to make way for the prodigal Head at the top of the order, can there be a clear distinction of line? Whichever way you look at it, there is no clear solution.

Possibility of Green making way

This seems slightly less likely because this has the potential of subjecting Australia to bowling paralysis. However bad Cameron Green has been in this World Cup, he provides the balance to the squad like Hardik Pandya does it for India. If Marcus Stoinis is fit and ready to go, the 24-year-old will be replaced straightaway, but this might not be a solution for Head.

But what if Australia decide to look that way? It would mean going ahead with four proper bowlers in the form of Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, and Adam Zampa - alongside two all-rounders - Glenn Maxwell and Mitchell Marsh. 

For a side that’s struggling to get their bowling map right, would it be prudent to have Green or Stoinis resting for a batter? Surely, Head can bowl, but he is coming off from a finger injury, and his effectiveness in this situation is open for anyone to presume.

In realization of that lies Australia’s answer to the Head conundrum.