TACTICAL PREVIEW
Follow UsBlow the trumpet! It is time for another India-Pakistan cricket match. For one of the most fierce cricketing rivalries, these fixtures are few and far in between. Recently, the two sides locked horns twice in the 2023 Asia Cup. However, it is the World Cup that matters the most, ensuring the whole world takes notice, not just the Asian contingent or the two countries in the contest.
The build-up for this game says everything about the hype of this rivalry. Fans are flocking from every part of the country, taking long trains, flights, and buses. The hotels are full, so they are booking hospital beds. The vacant seats at the stadiums have been a topic of discussion in the early stages of this tournament thus far. While the venues have filled up as the sun has set in, one can be certain there won’t be any empty seats at the Narendra Modi Stadium - with a seating capacity of 1,32,000 people - an hour before the first ball is bowled.
The players have stressed about treating it as just another game, but this sense of the occasion has gotten the better of Pakistan. Of late, however, they have challenged India a bit more, beating them in the 2021 T20 World Cup, testing them to the hilt in the next year’s edition, and then blazing their top-order in the Group stage game of the Asia Cup last month.
Now, Pakistan will be eager to break their duck against India in the 50-over World Cup. India have won each of these seven encounters. It will be the perfect fuel to a campaign where they have already won both their matches thus far.
India have been the form side of this tournament. Barring the first 10 overs of their run chase against Australia, they have bossed this World Cup. Three of their most experienced batters - Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, and KL Rahul - have already piled up significant scores. Jasprit Bumrah and Ravindra Jadeja have bowled match-defining spells.
While both teams are undefeated, things have fallen into place for India more than Pakistan. Thus, the Men in Blue starts as favorites. But it is Pakistan we are talking about. They have their own ways to surprise you.
Things to watch out for
Shaheen’s first two overs
In this 100-over contest, the first two overs from Shaheen Shah Afridi will bear the most excitement. It is because of Shaheen’s strange record in the powerplay.
In 18 ODIs since 2022, the left-arm seamer averages 17.1 in the first four overs of the innings, picking eight wickets at an impressive economy of 3.8. However, in the remaining six overs of the powerplay, his numbers are rather forgettable - only three wickets across 38 overs.
In the 10 ODIs when he has not struck in his first two overs, he has gone wicketless in the powerplay altogether. Moreover, he has gone at an economy of 7.6 in his remaining overs of the powerplay.
Moral of the story: Don’t give Shaheen early wickets and he will be rattled.
ALSO READ: Why first 10 overs of India’s batting could decide Saturday’s clash
Beyond numbers, Shaheen versus India’s top-order is a thing for a couple of years now in international cricket. In their Super Four clash last month in the Asia Cup, Shubman Gill attacked him upfront, paving the way for India’s way. Hence, Shaheen’s initial will be Pakistan’s biggest hope to trump India in a 50-over World Cup fixture.
A case for Shami?
Ravichandran Ashwin in Chennai and Shardul Thakur in Delhi. India have three options for their number eight slot, and Ahmedabad offers the conditions to try the third option - Mohammed Shami. And the reason is the good length area.
Good length will be the key for pacers from both sides. In four ODIs since renovation at the Narendra Modi Stadium, the pacers have picked 38 wickets here at 26.4 runs apiece, at an economy of 4.9. Good length has been their best friend - bearing the best economy (only 3.3) and the best average 23.8.
Ahmedabad being his home venue in IPL, Shami has pouched plenty of wickets here, hitting the good length area. His flatter trajectory at a good pace also makes him skiddy.
Moreover, the 33-year-old seamer has improved vastly in middle-overs, lending India more flexibility with their bowling plans.
Therefore, there is a clear case for Shami’s inclusion. However, it will cease India’s batting depth at number seven. They will have a longer tail compared to Pakistan, who have Shaheen and Hasan Ali to provide handy runs till number 10.
Ground Details and Conditions
The four ODIs since 2022 at the Narendra Modi Stadium has seen the side batting first and chasing win two games each. It is not a high-scoring venue given the last time a team touched the 300-run mark batting first was in 2010. Nine ODIs have been played since with the stadium going through renovation too.
The World Cup opener between New Zealand and England suggested the pitch is on the slow-ish side under the sun but gets better to bat at night. The spinners average 23.3 in the first innings as compared to 59.3 in the second innings, confirming this theory.
Expect the side winning the toss opt to bowl.
The weather forecast is clear to add another chapter in the India-Pakistan rivalry.
Tactical Insights
> Pakistan can target Kohli with the left-arm spin of Mohammad Nawaz. Since 2022 in ODIs, Kohli has averaged only 13 at a strike rate of 65.9 against left-arm orthodox spinners, both his lowest against any bowling type. However, Nawaz has not been a wicket-taker this year. In 2023, he averaged 43.8 for his 11 wickets in 12 matches. His economy has been 5.2, his highest in the calendar year 2019. Pakistan will hope Nawaz can at least keep Kohli quiet.
> Pakistan will need to block the square and behind the square region against Rahul. During his unbeaten 97 against Australia, Rahul scored 35% of his runs in that region.
> Kuldeep Yadav vs Babar Azam, if happens, could be another riveting contest to watch. Facing each other thrice, Kuldeep has dismissed Babar twice, conceding only 18 runs in 34 balls. The last time Babar faced a left-arm wrist spin in any format was April 16, 2021, in a T20I fixture.
Probable XIs
India
If the Men in Blue reckon Gill is fit enough for a 50-over game, he will come in for Ishan Kishan. Rohit Sharma, on the eve of the match, said Gill is 99% available but the final call will be taken in the morning. Who plays between Ashwin, Mohammed Shami and Shardul Thakur also pose an interesting question.
Rohit Sharma ( c ), Shubman Gill/Ishan Kishan, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul (wk), Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja, Shardul Thakur, Kuldeep Yadav, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj
Pakistan
Pakistan are expected to field the same XI.
Imam Ul Haq, Abdullah Shafique, Babar Azam ( c ), Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Saud Shakeel, Iftikhar Ahmed, Shadab Khan, Mohammad Nawaz, Hasan Ali, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Haris Rauf
